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Post by number13 on Dec 7, 2020 23:14:53 GMT
Good line from RTE's Europe correspondent Tony Connelly: "Brexit has always thrived on slogans, but struggled on detail" It's true that one can easily say 'take back control' or 'protect the Single Market' but if a deal is to be done it's going to come down to struggling with details for both sides.
But it isn't true to say (as it once was) that the UK doesn't know what "Brexit" means (apart from, of course, meaning "Brexit"! )
Both parties have laid their negotiating postions out in detail to the point where they probably recite them - and the opposing position - in their sleep, but they can't agree. That does not of itself prove that Brexit is "right" or "wrong", just that it is proving difficult to do in a way acceptable to both sides. Which isn't really surprising.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2020 7:28:27 GMT
Less than 3 weeks to go, it can't come soon enough
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,812
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 8, 2020 10:40:22 GMT
The more I hear Boris talking in interviews about how difficult it will be to do a deal, the more convinced I am we will get a deal.
All we are seeing now is a lot of smoke and mirrors to manipulate public opinion into believing that his eventual cave-in is actually a triumph.
Brexit was only ever going to end one way. Brexit voters will to be too stupid to recognise a defeat for the UK, the EU will be too clever to proclaim their victory and Boris will be happy to have his triumph and then leave someone else to clear up the mess.
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Post by number13 on Dec 8, 2020 11:47:13 GMT
The more I hear Boris talking in interviews about how difficult it will be to do a deal, the more convinced I am we will get a deal. All we are seeing now is a lot of smoke and mirrors to manipulate public opinion into believing that his eventual cave-in is actually a triumph. Brexit was only ever going to end one way. Brexit voters will to be too stupid to recognise a defeat for the UK, the EU will be too clever to proclaim their victory and Boris will be happy to have his triumph and then leave someone else to clear up the mess. I'm pleased you are optimistic!
In the scenario you sketch out, I don't think Boris would be going anywhere. Why would he, if people thought he had 'triumphed'? And wouldn't a 'cave-in' deal (I assume you mean one more or less on the EU's terms) be the best way of preventing a mess, in the view of people who want to stay as close as possible to the EU? So in that scenario, everyone at least fairly happy and a huge boost for the Government... However, personally I've never felt less optimistic about the chances of a deal. I was expecting 'Euro theatre' as usual for the end of any big negotiation, but for some reason this time it all feels real. And that is worrying.
But still, I wouldn't imply that all Brexit voters are 'stupid'. I know one or two and really, they aren't stupid people. Or any of the other insults that routinely get thrown around by some disappointed Remain supporters.
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Post by sherlock on Dec 8, 2020 13:21:45 GMT
A positive step. But nothing concrete yet.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,812
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 8, 2020 16:24:07 GMT
A positive step. But nothing concrete yet. The view of the commentariat seems to be that this is either a positive first step or else the UK is getting the ducks lined up for a no-deal exit that keeps the Biden White House onside.
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Post by sherlock on Dec 8, 2020 19:32:44 GMT
Meanwhile talks go on, with a personal intervention from Johnson as well.
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Post by number13 on Dec 9, 2020 12:27:29 GMT
More on last night's story: The EU has agreed a 'trusted trader' scheme with the UK for the movement of goods between Britain and Northern Ireland, as part of implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol.
(Yes, I believe this is essentially the same idea to avoid most paperwork and tariffs that the EU said was impossible when it was proposed by the UK in 2016 and that's why we had to have the infamous "backstop". Remember that?)
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,812
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 9, 2020 12:51:25 GMT
More on last night's story: The EU has agreed a 'trusted trader' scheme with the UK for the movement of goods between Britain and Northern Ireland, as part of implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol.
(Yes, I believe this is essentially the same idea to avoid most paperwork and tariffs that the EU said was impossible when it was proposed by the UK in 2016 and that's why we had to have the infamous "backstop". Remember that?) In fairness to the EU this is not the same as the 2016 proposal. The trusted trader scheme is not open to all and sundry - seemingly only large supermarket chains can avail of it to ensure food supplies to NI. I also read some reports that suggested the trusted trader scheme was temporary for a grace period only, but I'm not sure.
The earlier UK proposal was a scheme open to all and sundry that would avoid a hard border - but the problem was how to deal with traders who, due to past misdemeanours, could not be trusted. A trusted trader scheme to minimise the impact of the border to trusted traders is one thing, but to use it to eliminate the border entirely would only work if every single trader was registered on it and every single trader was trustworthy - which clearly won't be the case.
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Post by sherlock on Dec 9, 2020 22:20:59 GMT
Another new deadline-
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Post by johnhurtdoctor on Dec 9, 2020 22:24:26 GMT
FFS! How many deadlines. Four years to sort this mess out. FOUR YEARS! Whatever happens maybe on January 1st 2021 I'll find out what the specific tangible benefits of being out of the EU will be?
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Post by doctorkernow on Dec 9, 2020 22:36:11 GMT
Hello again.
The whole mess has been an ongoing nightmare, I keep hoping I'll wake up and it will all have been a dream. I'm afraid on balance, any benefits of being outside the EU may not be apparent for years. Whatever happens in January will be a huge change for the country. This year has been illusory because we were under transition arrangements.
Once these transition arrangements disappear, what replaces them depends on what the politicians decide. As you say Johnhurtdoctor until the wrangling stops, no one has any idea what new world order we will end up with. This uncertainty is causing so many problems, look at Felixstowe, things are not going to get better in the short term I'm afraid. Although, I really do want to be wrong on this one...
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Post by doctorkernow on Dec 9, 2020 23:28:32 GMT
Less than 3 weeks to go, it can't come soon enough Hello again.
Ian, I am intrigued by your enthusiasm for leaving the EU. Would you be willing to let me know what benefits there are to being outside the EU and how you would see our relationship with the EU continue after January. Are you keen to see no deal whatsoever, for example. I am not a remainer or a brexiteer, as I was unable to vote in the referendum as I had the more pressing concern of a daughter in hospital having an operation. So, I have no axe to grind either way.
What has been so upsetting for me has been the culture war, the toxic fighting between those who voted for and those who voted against, the paralysis of public life and hopeless example of our political class. The result was more complicated than the simple majority. In effect, half the United Kingdom voted for leaving England and Wales and half for staying, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
I don't think anyone truly understood just how complex out relationship with the EU had become. Our politicians seemed to have no clue about the consititutional consequences of the decision. Mr Cameron in particular, was totally oblivious to the mood of the country, the complexity of our relationship with Europe or the consequences a narrow win would have on the country as a whole.
The Brexiteers basically told us all everything would be really easy and straight-forward. While, the remainers did not give anything like a strong enough arguments about the benefits of staying in the EU. They just assumed that they were right and everyone who held a different opinion was stupid.
Brexit and its consequences has influenced and will continue to influence every aspect of our lives for years to come. It will be interesting in 2026 to see where we are.
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Post by johnhurtdoctor on Dec 9, 2020 23:41:07 GMT
Less than 3 weeks to go, it can't come soon enough Hello again.
Ian, I am intrigued by your enthusiasm for leaving the EU. Would you be willing to let me know what benefits there are to being outside the EU and how you would see our relationship with the EU continue after January. Are you keen to see no deal whatsoever, for example. I am not a remainer or a brexiteer, as I was unable to vote in the referendum as I had the more pressing concern of a daughter in hospital having an operation. So, I have no axe to grind either way.
What has been so upsetting for me has been the culture war, the toxic fighting between those who voted for and those who voted against, the paralysis of public life and hopeless example of our political class. The result was more complicated than the simple majority. In effect, half the United Kingdom voted for leaving England and Wales and half for staying, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
I don't think anyone truly understood just how complex out relationship with the EU had become. Our politicians seemed to have no clue about the consititutional consequences of the decision. Mr Cameron in particular, was totally oblivious to the mood of the country, the complexity of our relationship with Europe or the consequences a narrow win would have on the country as a whole.
The Brexiteers basically told us all everything would be really easy and straight-forward. While, the remainers did not give anything like a strong enough arguments about the benefits of staying in the EU. They just assumed that they were right and everyone who held a different opinion was stupid.
Brexit and its consequences has influenced and will continue to influence every aspect of our lives for years to come. It will be interesting in 2026 to see where we are.
Yes. When the referendum was fought over remain failed to provide enough info about the EU & benefits of being in it. Personally I think the EU needs reform but leaving is the most damaging thing to happen to the UK in my lifetime. & as mentioned before I haven't heard any real benefits we will get from leaving the EU apart from vague notions about getting our sovereignty back. So far all I have seen is the glee with which our home sec has announced that UK citizens rights & freedom of movement across Europe has been curtailed.
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Post by number13 on Dec 9, 2020 23:42:29 GMT
I'm starting to wonder if 'talks' is an accurate word. The parallel with the many many down to the wire negotiations of the past no longer applies. Then, we were in the room as one of X nations at a summit and the common position was argued out between the leaders & their teams with all the usual political flexibility, fudging and finessing. Give and take.
Now, the UK team could choose to make concessions if it wishes (after a call to London if necessary) but beyond narrow limits, the EU team cannot. Not for any bad motives, but because their negotiating position is set by 27 countries (at least in theory) and they have no authority to change it. So once their 'bottom line' is reached, that's it, they cannot move without a new position agreed among the 27. And how long would that take?
If that's right, then beyond a certain point the EU method isn't really a negotiation but a presentation of 'take it or leave it' on the assumption that the other party will always take it because of the near-impossibility of getting changes. Which will work until they meet a 'negotiating partner' for whom their bottom line is simply unacceptable for one reason or another.
I'm getting very pessimistic indeed about the chances of a 'deal' in time for the deadline.
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Post by doctorkernow on Dec 9, 2020 23:52:40 GMT
Hello again. I am trying to stay positive, but the chancers, incompetents and the power-hungry that run our country do not give me much hope. Only Parliament has the sovereignty to hold a government to account. Unfortunately, as with Thatcher, Blair and now Johnson, executives with large majorities can do pretty much what they want. On each occasion, a robust opposition was needed and was not forthcoming. We need our MPs to really hold the incumbent government to account, an opposition that falls into infighting will be a disaster for the country. I'm afraid, the current government is already looking to curtail the power of Parliament and the Supreme Court.
If the sovereignty of Parliament is eroded after making such a fuss about taking back control from Europe, we could become a 'banana republic' without the bananas.
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Post by number13 on Dec 9, 2020 23:57:04 GMT
More on last night's story: The EU has agreed a 'trusted trader' scheme with the UK for the movement of goods between Britain and Northern Ireland, as part of implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol.
(Yes, I believe this is essentially the same idea to avoid most paperwork and tariffs that the EU said was impossible when it was proposed by the UK in 2016 and that's why we had to have the infamous "backstop". Remember that?) In fairness to the EU this is not the same as the 2016 proposal. The trusted trader scheme is not open to all and sundry - seemingly only large supermarket chains can avail of it to ensure food supplies to NI. I also read some reports that suggested the trusted trader scheme was temporary for a grace period only, but I'm not sure.
The earlier UK proposal was a scheme open to all and sundry that would avoid a hard border - but the problem was how to deal with traders who, due to past misdemeanours, could not be trusted. A trusted trader scheme to minimise the impact of the border to trusted traders is one thing, but to use it to eliminate the border entirely would only work if every single trader was registered on it and every single trader was trustworthy - which clearly won't be the case.
It says the scheme will apply to 98% of all goods (not only food), with rebates available for any tariffs paid on the other 2%.
The 'grace period' is only for the part of the arrangement to keep food shipments temporarily under the current rules, though whether or not it's available to all business or only the supermarkets, I haven't a clue...
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Post by sherlock on Dec 10, 2020 0:05:11 GMT
In fairness to the EU this is not the same as the 2016 proposal. The trusted trader scheme is not open to all and sundry - seemingly only large supermarket chains can avail of it to ensure food supplies to NI. I also read some reports that suggested the trusted trader scheme was temporary for a grace period only, but I'm not sure.
The earlier UK proposal was a scheme open to all and sundry that would avoid a hard border - but the problem was how to deal with traders who, due to past misdemeanours, could not be trusted. A trusted trader scheme to minimise the impact of the border to trusted traders is one thing, but to use it to eliminate the border entirely would only work if every single trader was registered on it and every single trader was trustworthy - which clearly won't be the case.
It says the scheme will apply to 98% of all goods (not only food), with rebates available for any tariffs paid on the other 2%.
The 'grace period' is only for the part of the arrangement to keep food shipments temporarily under the current rules, though whether or not it's available to all business or only the supermarkets, I haven't a clue...
I believe it does only apply to supermarkets, though haven’t fully read up on it so could be mistaken.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,812
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 10, 2020 9:16:17 GMT
The more I hear Boris talking in interviews about how difficult it will be to do a deal, the more convinced I am we will get a deal. All we are seeing now is a lot of smoke and mirrors to manipulate public opinion into believing that his eventual cave-in is actually a triumph. Brexit was only ever going to end one way. Brexit voters will to be too stupid to recognise a defeat for the UK, the EU will be too clever to proclaim their victory and Boris will be happy to have his triumph and then leave someone else to clear up the mess. I'm pleased you are optimistic!
In the scenario you sketch out, I don't think Boris would be going anywhere. Why would he, if people thought he had 'triumphed'? And wouldn't a 'cave-in' deal (I assume you mean one more or less on the EU's terms) be the best way of preventing a mess, in the view of people who want to stay as close as possible to the EU? So in that scenario, everyone at least fairly happy and a huge boost for the Government... However, personally I've never felt less optimistic about the chances of a deal. I was expecting 'Euro theatre' as usual for the end of any big negotiation, but for some reason this time it all feels real. And that is worrying.
But still, I wouldn't imply that all Brexit voters are 'stupid'. I know one or two and really, they aren't stupid people. Or any of the other insults that routinely get thrown around by some disappointed Remain supporters.
I'm not so optimistic now!
I was and remain of the opinion that any deal will be largely on the EU's terms. The EU is much the stronger party in these negotiations and, contrary to what Michael Gove said, holds all the cards. It was never going to be any other way. The idea of a deal on the UK's terms was always a brexiteer fantasy.
Given the consequences of no-deal I find it hard to imagine that any sane government would deliberately choose that outcome, hence my previous optimism. However recent developments have dented my optimism. Nevertheless if there is a deal it will be on the basis of a British cave-in that will be spun as a triumph.
What actually made me pessimistic is the fact last night's dinner was in Brussels - the British PM as the supplicant going to Brussels to beg for a deal doesn't strike me as the brexiteer m.o. It looks more like a positioning exercise to show the UK went the extra mile in readiness for the inevitable blame game.
The consequences of no-deal look to me like the sort of calamity that destroys a government's credibility and guarantees they will lose the next election - 2008 financial crash, 1992 Black Wednesday, 1979 Winter of Discontent, 1967 devalution, etc. That's why I struggle to believe the government will really go for it. And aside from the political cost to the Conservative Party there is the long term damage to the economy, the boost to Scottish Nationalism (and possibly Irish and Welsh as well), etc etc. The only way to Tories can avoid taking the blame is if they can succeed in blaming the consequences on the supposedly "vindictive" Europeans determined to punish the UK.
I wouldn't say that brexit voters are stupid. I would say that brexit is an incredibly stupid act of self-harm for the UK to willingly undertake. Clever people can do stupid things and make stupid mistakes. Clever people can be taken in by a convincing snake-oil salesman. I've spent a fair bit of the last month at HMRC webinars about importing/exporting after brexit - and the amount of extra cost and paperwork we are going to impose on ourselves is sheer madness.
Believing in brexit is an act of faith - faith in defiance of reason and logic and evidence. (Just like the millions who believe Trump really won - in defiance of reason and logic and evidence.)
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,812
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 10, 2020 10:00:09 GMT
If Boris thinks he would get a better deal in 2021 . . . .
Since our PM is so fond of classical references, and to look at brexit from an unusual perspective, the UK is currently in the position of Tarquinius Superbus being offered the Sybilline books. By leaving the EU we turned down the offer of 9 books, and we are now being offered 6. If we go for no deal now we will end up purchasing 3 in 2021.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sibylline_Books
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