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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2019 21:45:41 GMT
A non-story as far as I'm concerned, couples row all the time. I'd be more concerned about neighbours recording people's private arguments through walls and sending the recording to a newspaper! Do people in the UK think this is acceptable behaviour from next-door neighbours? Maybe if you had first hand experience of DV & neighbors doing nothing about it you might not think it a non-story. But of course, couples row all the time They didn't just send it to a newspaper, they went round to the house to check more than once but got no reply. They called the police. Upon further investigation to corroborate the story the police initially denied anything had happened! Calling the police is fine, recording neighbours through the walls is not. What if the neighbours are having sex and there's a man/woman moaning loudly in pleasure, do we record that... just in case they are being abused? Call the police and let them investigate. The only reason the next-door neighbours recorded Boris arguing with his girlfriend and sent it to a newspaper was for political purposes. Anyone believing otherwise is delusional.
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Post by TinDogPodcast on Jun 23, 2019 22:51:03 GMT
Actually no...
As a podcaster with audio kit...
Hey what's that noise. Soynds suspect. .. I'll tape it while you call the police... I mean I don't want to get involved but... etc etc
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 6:58:54 GMT
Maybe if you had first hand experience of DV & neighbors doing nothing about it you might not think it a non-story. But of course, couples row all the time They didn't just send it to a newspaper, they went round to the house to check more than once but got no reply. They called the police. Upon further investigation to corroborate the story the police initially denied anything had happened! Calling the police is fine, recording neighbours through the walls is not. What if the neighbours are having sex and there's a man/woman moaning loudly in pleasure, do we record that... just in case they are being abused? Call the police and let them investigate. The only reason the next-door neighbours recorded Boris arguing with his girlfriend and sent it to a newspaper was for political purposes. Anyone believing otherwise is delusional. Thank you for your condescending comment. I hope you never have to be witness domestic violence & desperately wish someone would help but that hope never comes. Shame on you.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 7:37:38 GMT
The only reason the next-door neighbours recorded Boris arguing with his girlfriend and sent it to a newspaper was for political purposes. Anyone believing otherwise is delusional. Thank you for your condescending comment. You're welcome!
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shutupbanks
Castellan
There’s a horror movie called Alien? That’s really offensive. No wonder everyone keeps invading you.
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Post by shutupbanks on Jun 24, 2019 10:14:58 GMT
Maybe if you had first hand experience of DV & neighbors doing nothing about it you might not think it a non-story. But of course, couples row all the time They didn't just send it to a newspaper, they went round to the house to check more than once but got no reply. They called the police. Upon further investigation to corroborate the story the police initially denied anything had happened! Calling the police is fine, recording neighbours through the walls is not. What if the neighbours are having sex and there's a man/woman moaning loudly in pleasure, do we record that... just in case they are being abused? Call the police and let them investigate. The only reason the next-door neighbours recorded Boris arguing with his girlfriend and sent it to a newspaper was for political purposes. Anyone believing otherwise is delusional. According to this article www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-neighbour-interview-call-policethe neighbour had knocked on the door to check on them before he called the police. There were also a couple of other calls to the police from other neighbours, too. As a teacher of students who have suffered from domestic violence - and I'll also be glad if this doesn't turn out to be one - I'm glad to see some neighbours doing more than pretending it isn't their problem.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 10:42:33 GMT
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Post by number13 on Jun 24, 2019 11:06:24 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds, rebel Tories come back on board and PM Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." )
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 11:31:58 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds and becomes PM, rebel Tories come back on board and Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." ) Well given the winner will automatically become the Prime Minister, it's not as though this doesn't affect the rest of us non-Tories too. If we were discussing who the next Lib-Dem leader was, fair enough that a lot of non-Libs were butting in, but this is rather larger than just being the Tory leader whether we'd ever vote for them or not. Edit: You've taken that part I was responding to out with a swift edit I'd say that the situation is so bad for the Tories, with the parliamentary maths near impossible already thanks to May's harakirri 2017 GE (and with the recall in Wales, it could get worse) that whoever "wins" could be the lamest of lame duck PMs and your scenario could well come to pass, very easily. I don't see the months ahead being any less turbulent than the ones we've had since 2016. I don't think anyone even remembers what normal is even like!
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Post by number13 on Jun 24, 2019 11:55:19 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds and becomes PM, rebel Tories come back on board and Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." ) Well given the winner will automatically become the Prime Minister, it's not as though this doesn't affect the rest of us non-Tories too. If we were discussing who the next Lib-Dem leader was, fair enough that a lot of non-Libs were butting in, but this is rather larger than just being the Tory leader whether we'd ever vote for them or not. Edit: You've taken that part I was responding to out with a swift edit I'd say that the situation is so bad for the Tories, with the parliamentary maths near impossible already thanks to May's harakirri 2017 GE (and with the recall in Wales, it could get worse) that whoever "wins" could be the lamest of lame duck PMs and your scenario could well come to pass, very easily. I don't see the months ahead being any less turbulent than the ones we've had since 2016. I don't think anyone even remembers what normal is even like! I decided to be inclusive and cross-party! I know, it's not fashionable right now but there we are I'm so out of date (And there's a sporting chance I'll be voting Lib Dem again before long anyway so I can't exclude myself can I? )
Agree, a lame duck PM is very likely. But in these crazy times I wonder if it's also possible that the next PM will turn up in the Commons one day with May's deal (fourth incarnation) and say 'it really is "this or Corbyn" this time', and get it through?
It would obviously take someone of unlimited cheek and no fixed position to try that on, so it's not likely, I'll admit.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 12:37:49 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds, rebel Tories come back on board and PM Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." ) Least worst choice rather than better. Hunt has argued for the reduction of abortion limits from 24 to 12 weeks, & he endorsed Trump's retweet of vile Katie Hopkins. Whatever way you slice it we are in for an horrendous time.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Jun 24, 2019 16:31:52 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds, rebel Tories come back on board and PM Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." ) Least worst choice rather than better. Hunt has argued for the reduction of abortion limits from 24 to 12 weeks, & he endorsed Trump's retweet of vile Katie Hopkins. Whatever way you slice it we are in for an horrendous time. Well, having protested against the evil little sh*t attempting to shut down my local hospital on a false premise, then him using taxpayers' money to fund the appeal against the court decision that blocked him, you can see how much of a "better choice" he is. On top of what johnhurtdoctor has already mentioned.
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Post by iainmclaughlin on Jun 24, 2019 17:53:30 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds, rebel Tories come back on board and PM Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." ) I wouldn't want Hunt running the country either - though he might be marginally less appalling that Johnson... but I fear your dream will not happen. If the government loses a vote of no confidence - and this is looking more likely to me - if Labour couldn't cobble together a coalition (and they won't be able to) the Tories would have to replace their leader with 14 days. Given that Boris Johnson has wanted to be Prime Minister since he was about 6 years old there's no way he'll resign. There's also no way enough Tory MPs would vote against him in an internal vote of no confidence to force a leadership challenge. If nothing else, it would mean them acknowledging that they had been wrong to support the flustering cretin in the first place. Even if they did get rid of him, there would then have to be a new leadership election process. Hunt wouldn't automatically get the gig. 14 days just isn't long enough. Even if they did somehow manage to remove Boris and expedite the leadership process, Hunt would face the same parliamentary numbers of dissident Tories unwilling to support no deal. I think we're on an unavoidable march towards a General Election late September/early October.
The last really in-depth constituency by constituency polling numbers I saw were about ten days ago. From memory they were:
If Labour doesn't come out for second/confirmatory vote... Conservative 255; Labour 254; SNP 55; Lib-Dem 42; Brexit 8
If Labour do come out as pro second/confirmatory vote Labour 309; Conservative 237; SNP 55; Lib-Dem 22; Brexit 4
Either way it's a hung parliament with a Labour minority or Labour-led coalition. If the numbers for Scotland are accurate (and they are what really interest me) the moral case for IndyRef2 will be undeniable and my prediction on that, based on polls I've seen (published and a couple not published) as well as nearly 4 years of writing about it as a scumbag journalist... 55-60% pro independence. There's a fascinating shift that has very quietly happened in the 40-60 age band who will switch from "give the union a last go" to "time up, we're out". I can think of 25-30 people in my family, friends and reasonably immediate acquaintances (myself included for transparency's sake) who have made this shift.
Of course, politics in the UK right now is so unpredictable there's no real way to know what's going to happen. My guess - GE in September/October and a Labour minority.
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Post by number13 on Jun 24, 2019 22:01:05 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds, rebel Tories come back on board and PM Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." ) I wouldn't want Hunt running the country either - though he might be marginally less appalling that Johnson... but I fear your dream will not happen. If the government loses a vote of no confidence - and this is looking more likely to me - if Labour couldn't cobble together a coalition (and they won't be able to) the Tories would have to replace their leader with 14 days. Given that Boris Johnson has wanted to be Prime Minister since he was about 6 years old there's no way he'll resign. There's also no way enough Tory MPs would vote against him in an internal vote of no confidence to force a leadership challenge. If nothing else, it would mean them acknowledging that they had been wrong to support the flustering cretin in the first place. Even if they did get rid of him, there would then have to be a new leadership election process. Hunt wouldn't automatically get the gig. 14 days just isn't long enough. Even if they did somehow manage to remove Boris and expedite the leadership process, Hunt would face the same parliamentary numbers of dissident Tories unwilling to support no deal. I think we're on an unavoidable march towards a General Election late September/early October.
The last really in-depth constituency by constituency polling numbers I saw were about ten days ago. From memory they were:
If Labour doesn't come out for second/confirmatory vote... Conservative 255; Labour 254; SNP 55; Lib-Dem 42; Brexit 8
If Labour do come out as pro second/confirmatory vote Labour 309; Conservative 237; SNP 55; Lib-Dem 22; Brexit 4
Either way it's a hung parliament with a Labour minority or Labour-led coalition. If the numbers for Scotland are accurate (and they are what really interest me) the moral case for IndyRef2 will be undeniable and my prediction on that, based on polls I've seen (published and a couple not published) as well as nearly 4 years of writing about it as a scumbag journalist... 55-60% pro independence. There's a fascinating shift that has very quietly happened in the 40-60 age band who will switch from "give the union a last go" to "time up, we're out". I can think of 25-30 people in my family, friends and reasonably immediate acquaintances (myself included for transparency's sake) who have made this shift.
Of course, politics in the UK right now is so unpredictable there's no real way to know what's going to happen. My guess - GE in September/October and a Labour minority.
I seem to be the token (current) Tory on this thread, but that's fine, I have a theory we are like the Refusians - invisible (online) but actually present all over the place.
I don't think it's possible to overestimate the desire of MPs to keep their seats and Boris got a bare 50% of MPs backing him - before recent events. When the Conservative party in Parliament really wants to change a leader (ie they think their collective survival is at stake) it can happen in the blink of an eye - as IDS found out in the autumn of 2003. I seem to recall it took about 3 days to dump him and choose his replacement, rules or no rules. As for what would happen then, your guess is as good as mine but if we really do leave the EU on Oct 31st I will be very, very surprised - whoever is PM by then - unless the EU have run out of patience with us, which I wouldn't rule out.
I saw a recent poll suggesting that only 25% of Scottish voters currently want IndyRef2 ?? Though that might change sharply depending on what happens with Brexit. That's very interesting what you say about your personal findings about the shift in opinion - it would be fascinating to know what English voters think of the Union now but we are never asked or even think about it much, for the most part. (A Labour/SNP arrangement in Westminster might change this.)
Personally, I think it's only a matter of time before we 'divorce' and while that saddens me I hope we can do it amicably; beyond distant family connections Scotland is one of my favourite places in the world and I hope we will always be the best of friends (normal sports exemptions apply to this, obviously )
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Post by doctorkernow on Jun 24, 2019 22:07:22 GMT
Hello again.
I agree Iain, it's a brave person who predicts when we're going in the chaos we've had in the last three years.
Much as I think the Union was a good thing, I can see that Scotland and its people have had enough. The question facing Scotland will be exactly the same questions the UK faces now. What will be the relationship with the rest of the British Isles and Europe? No easy answers.
As for the UK in the short term, Parliament will not allow no deal, Europe will not negotiate any further, the deal is the deal.
If there is an election after a motion of no confidence or an over confident PM wanting a mandate; there is either the spectre of a Tory/DUP/Brexit Party coalition or a Labour/SNP/LiberalStop the Tories coalition.
It is all down to the numbers and what exactly the parties and their leaders do between now and October 31st. It is an absolute shambles. Why are having such a long recess they need to sort this out. Feeling very gloomy.
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Post by sherlock on Jun 24, 2019 22:08:19 GMT
From his BBC interview I’m more convinced than ever than Johnson hasn’t got any semblance of an idea of how to resolve Brexit. His ideas seem based on hope that politics will just force a solution out of nowhere. That logic hasn’t worked on negotiations with the EU at all in the last four years.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Jun 24, 2019 22:30:16 GMT
On topic: Jeremy Hunt looks a better and better choice every day that passes. He probably won't win the ballot but I still wouldn't rule him out as being PM this year.
Like this: Boris wins the members' ballot, loses a vote of confidence (due to some rebel Tories) when trying to push through a 'No Deal'. Government then has 14 days under the FTPA to reestablish confidence of the House, Hunt gets a May-style 'coronation' in about ten seconds, rebel Tories come back on board and PM Hunt wins a second vote of confidence. ("The Foreign Secretary! He was the Prime Minister all the time..." ) I wouldn't want Hunt running the country either - though he might be marginally less appalling that Johnson... but I fear your dream will not happen. If the government loses a vote of no confidence - and this is looking more likely to me - if Labour couldn't cobble together a coalition (and they won't be able to) the Tories would have to replace their leader with 14 days. Given that Boris Johnson has wanted to be Prime Minister since he was about 6 years old there's no way he'll resign. There's also no way enough Tory MPs would vote against him in an internal vote of no confidence to force a leadership challenge. If nothing else, it would mean them acknowledging that they had been wrong to support the flustering cretin in the first place. Even if they did get rid of him, there would then have to be a new leadership election process. Hunt wouldn't automatically get the gig. 14 days just isn't long enough. Even if they did somehow manage to remove Boris and expedite the leadership process, Hunt would face the same parliamentary numbers of dissident Tories unwilling to support no deal. I think we're on an unavoidable march towards a General Election late September/early October.
The last really in-depth constituency by constituency polling numbers I saw were about ten days ago. From memory they were:
If Labour doesn't come out for second/confirmatory vote... Conservative 255; Labour 254; SNP 55; Lib-Dem 42; Brexit 8
If Labour do come out as pro second/confirmatory vote Labour 309; Conservative 237; SNP 55; Lib-Dem 22; Brexit 4
Either way it's a hung parliament with a Labour minority or Labour-led coalition. If the numbers for Scotland are accurate (and they are what really interest me) the moral case for IndyRef2 will be undeniable and my prediction on that, based on polls I've seen (published and a couple not published) as well as nearly 4 years of writing about it as a scumbag journalist... 55-60% pro independence. There's a fascinating shift that has very quietly happened in the 40-60 age band who will switch from "give the union a last go" to "time up, we're out". I can think of 25-30 people in my family, friends and reasonably immediate acquaintances (myself included for transparency's sake) who have made this shift.
Of course, politics in the UK right now is so unpredictable there's no real way to know what's going to happen. My guess - GE in September/October and a Labour minority.
That's a very interesting post. I don't know how it will play out (obviously) but I think any hypothetical election that came about as a result of Tory backbenchers bringing down a no-deal Tory government would not be a straightforward election. I could see Tory and Labour rebel backbenchers standing against their party manifesto, various local electoral pacts for parties to stand down in favour of the pro-brexit, or pro-remain, candidate most likely to win, resulting in a pro-brexit alliance (90% of Tories, Nigel Farage and a handful of pro-brexit Labour MPs) lined up against a pro-Remain alliance (90% of Labour, a smattering of Tories, Lib Dems, Scottish & Welsh Nationalists, Greens) in most constituencies. So any predictions are nigh on impossible.
With regard to indyref2, I'm not so sure. I'm not Scottish so I defer to your greater knowledge of Scottish politics. I think if brexit happens, whether hard or soft, deal or no deal, then indyref2 will happen sooner rather than later. However if brexit is halted by a 2nd referendum then I'm not so sure. The SNP's original position after indyref1 was that it was a once in a generation event, not to be repeated unless something material changed. Brexit is obviously something material, but if it does not go ahead, then surely the justification for indyref2 in the near future goes as well?
Besides, the questions asked in 2014 (re currency, etc.) have still not really been answered. And after brexit there would be a much more informed debate about the implications of independence. Last time round it was said that it would mean Scotland leaving the EU and that Spain would never consent to anything that would set a precedent which encouraged Catalan independence, etc. Now that we are all so much better informed about the customs union, single market, and the SNP have made so much of the economic damage leaving them will do to Scotland, have they not undermined their own case for independence if the UK does not leave the EU? Would not all the current debate / warnings about the economic impact of a hard border in Ireland not then apply to the border between England and Scotland? Plus, once the Alex Salmond sexual assault trial happens, will that not dent the SNP's support and, by association, the independence movement?
As I say I am not Scottish, so my insight is limited (although I did spend 4 years there at uni and voted in the first Scottish Parliament election in 1999) but if brexit does not go ahead, then surely indyref2 is much less likely?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2019 6:39:05 GMT
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Jun 25, 2019 10:53:49 GMT
I seem to be the token (current) Tory on this thread, but that's fine, I have a theory we are like the Refusians - invisible (online) but actually present all over the place.
You are not alone
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2019 11:02:44 GMT
Maybe they're waiting for the neighbours to send them the recording of the phone conversations between Boris and Steve Bannon?!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2019 11:07:35 GMT
Maybe they're waiting for the neighbours to send them the recording of the phone conversations between Boris and Steve Bannon?! I doubt it. They have video evidence, as the article clearly states.
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