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Post by jasonward on Mar 13, 2017 17:25:17 GMT
So Nicola Sturgeon is seeking another Scottish devolution referendum.
The polls apparently show us that the Scottish will again vote to not leave the British Union, however as Brexit and Trump has shown us, it would be a fool that took that to be a forgone conclusion. I also think it will be much harder for Remain campaigners to make a case for remaining, not least since they will need to argue that remaining part of the British Union is better than remaining part of the European Union. A kind of "were better of staying by leaving". The Scots no longer face what appears a simple choice of going it alone or together, it is now a case of which Union is best for Scotland, and as Scotland voters have consistently voted in a different way from English voters for decades now, and Scotland has visibly benefited from EU money in recent times.
None of it is of course that simple, and I'm sure the actual facts of what is best will be far more complex, but as is often the case, these things will during the campaign be reduced to slogans and headlines.
My expectation, despite the polls is that Scotland will vote to leave, not least because a vote to Remain isn't this time a vote for the status quo or "better the devil you know", a new Scottish referendum is going to be about Scotland with England or Scotland with Europe, Remainers don't have the luxury of saying that Remain is the safe option.
It may seem a positive note for Remainers that post the Brexit vote many of the worst predictions have not come true, but that is also a positive for the Leave campaigners, since they can say if Brexit didn't destabilise the UK then Scottish devolution won't destabilise Scotland. I actually think if Scotland votes to leaves, it will be them that appear to be the stronger and the English that appear to be the weaker, Scotland will portray itself as bold, and the English could find themselves potrayed as being on a sinking ship.
Personally I've always been against Scottish devolution because I've always believed that both Scotland and England are stronger for being together, but if I was in Scotland today, looking at a choice between British Union and European Union, I would choose European Union.
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Post by TinDogPodcast on Mar 13, 2017 17:52:38 GMT
I didn't believe in leaving the e u.
I don't blame Scotland for wanting to leave the UK but remain in the EU.
It's what I would vote for.
Stronger Together.
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Post by fitzoliverj on Mar 13, 2017 18:06:45 GMT
The question is not so much whether it's a good idea but whether it's a good idea it happening *now*.
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Post by jasonward on Mar 13, 2017 18:09:51 GMT
The question is not so much whether it's a good idea but whether it's a good idea it happening *now*. Can you expand? I would have, on the surface of it, said the exact opposite, but I could be misunderstanding what you really mean.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2017 18:41:39 GMT
The polls showed that support for Yes was 36% at the time the last referendum was announced in March 2013 (Sunday Times/Panelbase), so while there's no sure thing either way with refs, support for Yes would undeniably start higher than that since every poll from Ipsos-Mori and Panelbase of 2017 shows 41-44% support. The last poll, for Ipos-Mori from last week showed Yes with a 1% lead over a No vote. So it's clearly too close to be confident one way or the other especially at least 18 months out. It would be a fool's errand to pick a winner here especially in this age when polls and bookmakers seemingly are unable to predict events as the results of Brexit, Trump and a Tory majority show.
From my own anecdotal experience, the prospect of another decade of Tory rule, a dead Labour Party in Scotland with a dying one in England and a hard Brexit seem to be the major factors people are talking about here. There are a lot of people exceptionally uncomfortable with the shift to the right that large swathes of England has taken and a desire to be as distant from that as possible. Many of the tactics the No camp used - protecting EU membership, safeguarding jobs in shipbuilding and manufacturing - will now be used against them since those have been taken away regardless. It'll be very hard to use the same basic arguments again especially with the UK in general facing a massively uncertain future. In 2014 Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown convinced a lot of people that the UK was the safe choice..not so easy now. The polls in June and July showed a lot of support for Yes post-brexit ref. Expect that to be the big issue this is fought on. It's telling that already two English posters here have said they'd choose the EU and Indy over Brexit and Union - that's what Nicola is gambling on a lot of Scots thinking too. High profile people like JK Rowling and David Tennant - both backed No the last time - have said they think differently post-Brexit. Even Henry McLeish, former Labour First Minister, has said similar. "A material change" is what the SNP manifesto said would be needed for another referendum...well, I think while they'd never say so publicly, even staunch Unionists would have to admit Brexit is just that - "a significant and material change". Nicola Sturgeon is only doing what she said she would in the manifesto she was elected to enforce.
We've got council elections in Scotland a couple of months and the SNP are going to clean up. They'll have the Scottish Parliament, almost all the Westminister seats and the all the big city councils. That was unthinkable just a decade ago when Labour could run a lame dog and win most Scottish elections. The big issue I would suggest the No camp have is who can fight this? Labour can't - they're in disarray and the 3rd biggest party in Scotland can't be the champions for anything. The Tories won 2nd place but their vote share went down - it was only the total collapse of Labour that allowed Ruth Davidson to pretend she'd achieved anything significant. Standing side by side as a Better Together 2 is out since that's one reason Labour's death was so quick in the past few years. It's very difficult to see a united front making the case for the Union this time.
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Post by fitzoliverj on Mar 13, 2017 18:45:21 GMT
Can you expand? I would have, on the surface of it, said the exact opposite, but I could be misunderstanding what you really mean. People who oppose Scotland leaving the union will probably oppose it regardless. But people who are inclined to support the idea might vote Remain/No this time round (hoping for another go in the future) if they thought the economic and political situation was such that an independent Scotland would not presently be viable, e.g. general world recession, Spain vetoing Scotland joining the EU to discourage the Catalonian separatists, etc. (These are just examples of potential arguments; they may not in fact be viable arguments in and of themselves).
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Post by jasonward on Mar 13, 2017 19:00:41 GMT
Can you expand? I would have, on the surface of it, said the exact opposite, but I could be misunderstanding what you really mean. People who oppose Scotland leaving the union will probably oppose it regardless. But people who are inclined to support the idea might vote Remain/No this time round (hoping for another go in the future) if they thought the economic and political situation was such that an independent Scotland would not presently be viable, e.g. general world recession, Spain vetoing Scotland joining the EU to discourage the Catalonian separatists, etc. (These are just examples of potential arguments; they may not in fact be viable arguments in and of themselves). Hmm, I see what you mean, but I think this vote is going to be the final one for a very long time, not just because people balk at "how many goes do you get?" but because this is a real pin your colours to the mast moment, Scotland is going to have to choose which union it wants and make that work, neither option is now the simple one, the one you get with no effort, no danger. If Scotland votes to stay part of the British Union then they will have to make that work, they are going to need UK trade deals etc just as England will and Scotland will need to contribute to that process for their own good. If Scotland votes to leave the British Union and seek independent membership of the EU, they are going to need EU trade deals and they will have to work hard to overcome hurdles to entry. I just can't see this vote as leaving options for the future open, once Scotland decides its going to have to knuckle down and work with whatever option they went for, I can't see the door being open again in a very long time.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2017 16:33:48 GMT
I don't want to get involved in any dissolution of the Union discussion, but there is a very serious issue that I hope Davy and our other Scottish comrades here are aware of when it comes to an independence vote... that scourge of all 'foreigners' buying CDs from Big Finish... International Postage! Just saying!
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Post by ulyssessarcher on Mar 14, 2017 17:00:42 GMT
I don't want to get involved in any dissolution of the Union discussion, but there is a very serious issue that I hope Davy and our other Scottish comrades here are aware of when it comes to an independence vote... that scourge of all 'foreigners' buying CDs from Big Finish... International Postage! Just saying! hey, even I would vote to join the UK if it meant cheaper postage from BF...just sayin.
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Post by acousticwolf on Mar 16, 2017 12:21:02 GMT
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Post by jasonward on Mar 16, 2017 13:00:19 GMT
I don't think it's clear cut at all, and right now a vote could go either way, but if Scots do vote to stay in the UK it will create a interesting dilemma at the heart of Scottish politics, in that the electorate keep electing a party whose whole reason for existence is to get independence for Scotland, but those self same electorate keep voting against. If the SNP were to loose a referendum for a second time, it makes me wonder if their might be a movement within the SNP to back away from out right independence and/or if The Scottish Labour Party could adapt itself to steal the political ground of those that want a strong Scottish identity but not to leave the British Union.
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Post by acousticwolf on Mar 16, 2017 13:18:30 GMT
Theresa May's response to the call: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39293513Cheers Tony EDIT: If the SNP were to loose a referendum for a second time, it makes me wonder if their might be a movement within the SNP to back away from out right independence and/or if The Scottish Labour Party could adapt itself to steal the political ground of those that want a strong Scottish identity but not to leave the British Union. There is definitely that possibility. I suppose the elections in May could indicate the future
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Post by muckypup on Mar 16, 2017 14:50:16 GMT
when do the rest of the uk get a referendum to say weather we even want to keep Scotland...... could someone please explain why nationalism in Scotland is thought of as a good thing, while nationalism in England is thought of as a bad thing.
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Post by acousticwolf on Mar 16, 2017 15:17:24 GMT
... could someone please explain why nationalism in Scotland is thought of as a good thing, while nationalism in England is thought of as a bad thing. Here you go ... If you're English it's an extreme form of patriotism marked by a feeling of superiority over other countriesIf you are any other Nationality it's patriotic feeling, principles, or efforts.That's what it appears to me anyway, something to do with the perception that all English are racists and obviously want nothing better than to subjugate our neighbours. Granted, old governments and monarchs did but the same can pretty much be said of all Empires and wealthy countries in the past. With England, "mud has stuck" and we are not allowed to show any patriotism without it being seen as racist - in English schools we are taught that we are British, in other schools you are Welsh, Scottish, etc. That's why we only have the Union's National Anthem in Rugby, whereas all other members of the Union have their own National Anthems. Cheers Tony
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2017 15:23:37 GMT
when do the rest of the uk get a referendum to say weather we even want to keep Scotland...... could someone please explain why nationalism in Scotland is thought of as a good thing, while nationalism in England is thought of as a bad thing. Well, quite. If I remember my history at all correctly it was the Scots who took over England, not the other way round. We want our freedom!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2017 15:26:23 GMT
I don't think it's clear cut at all, and right now a vote could go either way, but if Scots do vote to stay in the UK it will create a interesting dilemma at the heart of Scottish politics, in that the electorate keep electing a party whose whole reason for existence is to get independence for Scotland, but those self same electorate keep voting against. If the SNP were to loose a referendum for a second time, it makes me wonder if their might be a movement within the SNP to back away from out right independence and/or if The Scottish Labour Party could adapt itself to steal the political ground of those that want a strong Scottish identity but not to leave the British Union. I don't see that it's a dilemma really - It was a "No" vote in 2014 but after that the SNP increased their membership, won 56/59 Westminister seats and won the 2016 elections easily despite that - why? They govern well and even a hell of a lot of people who don't back Indy like the way they go about affairs enough to vote for them. Areas that voted No in '14 stilll flocked to vote SNP a few months later based on their non-Indy work. Couple that with the Labour collapse and there's no danger of the SNP losing any of their current standing. Despite what British-wide media would have people believe, the SNP don't have tunnel vision for Independence and get on with the day-to-day affairs of working with what we have in a devolved parliament very well hence winning the last 3 elections. Labour won't be getting anywhere in Scotland for a long time while they have a conveyor belt of straw-leaders having to answer to Westminister. Did you read much about Iain Gray, Johann Lamont or Wendy Alexander in the English press? They were the leaders of the Labour party over the last decade and they struggled to get mentioned in the Scottish media much less UK-wide. There's not enough talent or hunger in the Scottish Labour party to adapt. People like Jackie Baillie and Anas Sarwar are some of their "big hitters" and they're lightweights compared to the sort of politician the party used to have and, crucially, that the SNP have right now. When Labour had their last leadership election they struggled to get people to stand knowing they'd be on a hiding to nothing and potentially kill their careers. Dugdale stepped up after being Deputy to Jim Murphy and she's done very little but preside over some of their worst defeats ever. There's no white knight waiting in the wings for them. Alex Rowley? Neil Findlay? Nobodies with the same old ideas. What they wouldn't give for an Angus Robertson, Mhari Black, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh or Humza Yousaf. The only way they can progress is becoming (ironically) independent of the UK Labour Party. Too often Kezia Dugdale (and her predecessors) say something and then Corbyn (and his predecessors) say something entirely different leading to all sorts of back peddling and climbdowns. Jim Murphy and Ed Balls had a public embarrassment over divergent visions in the 2015 election campaign with Nicola Sturgeon destroying Murphy in the TV debates over his need to adhere to his UK-leaders ideas. Even this weekend as Dugdale said there should be no Indy Ref, Corbyn says he would have no problem with one. With friends like these.... Henry McLeish has spoken of wanting to do certain things policy wise when First Minister but being told by the Secretary of State that certain ideas were off limits as they didn't match the UK wide vision under the (then) Blair government. While that kind of control is exerted over the Scottish Labour Party, they've no chance of establishing a fresh identity.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2017 15:38:41 GMT
when do the rest of the uk get a referendum to say weather we even want to keep Scotland...... could someone please explain why nationalism in Scotland is thought of as a good thing, while nationalism in England is thought of as a bad thing. When the rest of Europe gets a vote to decide "weather" the UK should be in the EU or not, I suppose. Oh, but that would be silly. Nationalism - as AcousticWolf posts - doesn't mean one set thing. There is no connection between nationalism meaning a want to be self-governing and nationalism with the more unpleasant connotations of the far-right. England has long had identity issues with it's display of national identity, being almost embarrassed of the flag flying publically and celebrating St George's day...but that's not the fault of anyone else and not related to Scottish Independence either way.
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Post by jasonward on Mar 16, 2017 15:47:48 GMT
when do the rest of the uk get a referendum to say weather we even want to keep Scotland...... could someone please explain why nationalism in Scotland is thought of as a good thing, while nationalism in England is thought of as a bad thing. Well, quite. If I remember my history at all correctly it was the Scots who took over England, not the other way round. We want our freedom! Errr, no... First of all Scottish and English relations are more complex than simple "they vs. we", but Great Britain as a political entity was first proposed by a Scottish King (James VI) that later became the English King also (James I) in 1603 when the crowns of Scotland and England came into union. Secondly the political Union of England and Scotland came about when the Scottish Parliament passed the "Union with England Act" in 1707. There, were invasions and support of enemy nations on both sides for a long time. There were atrocities carried about by English forces, but really painting any of the history of England and Scotland as a simple England vs Scotland is to ignore the complexity of what was really happening, it should also be noted that many of the nobles of Scotland and England were nobles of both countries, but were either labelled or adopted one of the other in order to define "the enemy" not because in any true sense they were what they were labelled as.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Mar 16, 2017 18:34:20 GMT
If I was Scottish I'd vote to leave.
But I do take issue with the statement that if "No" wins again that Scotland will just have to make things work. That sentence is part of the problem. All the countries in the UK should have to make things work, not just dance along to Westminster's tune, and by extension of that England's. Acoustic Wolf has pointed out a salient cultural problem at the heart of England, you are taught that you are "British", while Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish (don't open that can of worms here, totally different thread needed!) are not. You should be taught your history, all of it, even the shitty bits, and acknowledge them because how else can we move forward? How else could an English Parliament learn to deal with an independence movement in the early 21st century if it doesn't accept the full ramifications of devolution? The UK, if it is to survive, needs to be refashioned as a federal style union rather than the hodge podge it currently is. England needed it's OWN parliament when devolution was introduced, with the Lords and Commons refashioned into something more akin to a federal body. And there's a major flaw. England is convinced that however well Scotland (or anywhere else) is doing, that they are only playing at being a country, at governing, while the "real" work goes on in Westminister, and that was always going to happen since England didn't get its own parliament. But that's part of the problem of being taught you're British and not English.
I apologise! I wandered off there for a bit. It isn't simple but the vote will be. May isn't Thatcher but she's trying to wear her shoes, she'll fail.
As an aside, if the SNP spoke to every single UK citizen living in the EU who hadn't wanted to leave the EU and offered them Scottish citizenship...
EDIT: I'll probably offend some here (and I don't mean to) but most of the English folk I've spoken to about this who don't want to see them go either talk wistfully about a shared past and perhaps you can see some heather on the mountain reflected in their eyes; or they rant at me about how they shouldn't be allowed to leave and why don't the Tories just close Holyrood, it's not like it's anything more than a county council anyway. While most of the Scots I know want to go, and those that don't have quite reasoned arguments for staying, none of which *I* find convincing but which are actually debatable. Welsh? They've told me nothing! NOTHING! And NI? Let's not go there right now.
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Post by jasonward on Mar 16, 2017 18:48:09 GMT
What's wrong with being British first and English second? Sure there is an issue about the discontinuity of all this British, English, Scottish, Welsh, Irish stuff, but this discontinuity doesn't make being British the problem.
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