Dissolution of the Union (UK politics)

The question is not so much whether it's a good idea but whether it's a good idea it happening *now*.

The polls showed that support for Yes was 36% at the time the last referendum was announced in March 2013 (Sunday Times/Panelbase), so while there's no sure thing either way with refs, support for Yes would undeniably start higher than that since every poll from Ipsos-Mori and Panelbase of 2017 shows 41-44% support. The last poll, for Ipos-Mori from last week showed Yes with a 1% lead over a No vote. So it's clearly too close to be confident one way or the other especially at least 18 months out. It would be a fool's errand to pick a winner here especially in this age when polls and bookmakers seemingly are unable to predict events as the results of Brexit, Trump and a Tory majority show.

From my own anecdotal experience, the prospect of another decade of Tory rule, a dead Labour Party in Scotland with a dying one in England and a hard Brexit seem to be the major factors people are talking about here. There are a lot of people exceptionally uncomfortable with the shift to the right that large swathes of England has taken and a desire to be as distant from that as possible. Many of the tactics the No camp used - protecting EU membership, safeguarding jobs in shipbuilding and manufacturing - will now be used against them since those have been taken away regardless. It'll be very hard to use the same basic arguments again especially with the UK in general facing a massively uncertain future. In 2014 Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown convinced a lot of people that the UK was the safe choice..not so easy now. The polls in June and July showed a lot of support for Yes post-brexit ref. Expect that to be the big issue this is fought on. It's telling that already two English posters here have said they'd choose the EU and Indy over Brexit and Union - that's what Nicola is gambling on a lot of Scots thinking too. High profile people like JK Rowling and David Tennant - both backed No the last time - have said they think differently post-Brexit. Even Henry McLeish, former Labour First Minister, has said similar. "A material change" is what the SNP manifesto said would be needed for another referendum...well, I think while they'd never say so publicly, even staunch Unionists would have to admit Brexit is just that - "a significant and material change". Nicola Sturgeon is only doing what she said she would in the manifesto she was elected to enforce. 

We've got council elections in Scotland a couple of months and the SNP are going to clean up. They'll have the Scottish Parliament, almost all the Westminister seats and the all the big city councils. That was unthinkable just a decade ago when Labour could run a lame dog and win most Scottish elections.  The big issue I would suggest the No camp have is who can fight this? Labour can't - they're in disarray and the 3rd biggest party in Scotland can't be the champions for anything. The Tories won 2nd place but their vote share went down - it was only the total collapse of Labour that allowed Ruth Davidson to pretend she'd achieved anything significant. Standing side by side as a Better Together 2 is out since that's one reason Labour's death was so quick in the past few years. It's very difficult to see a united front making the case for the Union this time. 

Hmm, I see what you mean, but I think this vote is going to be the final one for a very long time, not just because people balk at "how many goes do you get?" but because this is a real pin your colours to the mast moment, Scotland is going to have to choose which union it wants and make that work, neither option is now the simple one, the one you get with no effort, no danger.

If Scotland votes to stay part of the British Union then they will have to make that work, they are going to need UK trade deals etc just as England will and Scotland will need to contribute to that process for their own good.

If Scotland votes to leave the British Union and seek independent membership of the EU, they are going to need EU trade deals and they will have to work hard to overcome hurdles to entry.

I just can't see this vote as leaving options for the future open, once Scotland decides its going to have to knuckle down and work with whatever option they went for, I can't see the door being open again in a very long time.

hey, even I would vote to join the UK if it meant cheaper postage from BF...just sayin.

I don't think it's clear cut at all, and right now a vote could go either way, but if Scots do vote to stay in the UK it will create a interesting dilemma at the heart of Scottish politics, in that the electorate keep electing a party whose whole reason for existence is to get independence for Scotland, but those self same electorate keep voting against.

If the SNP were to loose a referendum for a second time, it makes me wonder if their might be a movement within the SNP to back away from out right independence and/or if The Scottish Labour Party could adapt itself to steal the political ground of those that want a strong Scottish identity but not to leave the British Union.

when do the rest of the uk get a referendum to say weather we even want to keep Scotland......


could someone please explain why nationalism in Scotland is thought of as a good thing, while nationalism in England is thought of as a bad thing.

Well, quite. If I remember my history at all correctly it was the Scots who took over England, not the other way round. We want our freedom!

When the rest of Europe gets a vote to decide "weather" the UK should be in the EU or not, I suppose. Oh, but that would be silly.

Nationalism - as AcousticWolf posts - doesn't mean one set thing. There is no connection between nationalism meaning a want to be self-governing and nationalism with the more unpleasant connotations of the far-right. England has long had identity issues with it's display of national identity, being almost embarrassed of the flag flying publically and celebrating St George's day...but that's not the fault of anyone else and not related to Scottish Independence either way.

If I was Scottish I'd vote to leave.

But I do take issue with the statement that if "No" wins again that Scotland will just have to make things work. That sentence is part of the problem. All the countries in the UK should have to make things work, not just dance along to Westminster's tune, and by extension of that England's. Acoustic Wolf has pointed out a salient cultural problem at the heart of England, you are taught that you are "British", while Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish (don't open that can of worms here, totally different thread needed!) are not. You should be taught your history, all of it, even the shitty bits, and acknowledge them because how else can we move forward? How else could an English Parliament learn to deal with an independence movement in the early 21st century if it doesn't accept the full ramifications of devolution? The UK, if it is to survive, needs to be refashioned as a federal style union rather than the hodge podge it currently is. England needed it's OWN parliament when devolution was introduced, with the Lords and Commons refashioned into something more akin to a federal body. And there's a major flaw. England is convinced that however well Scotland (or anywhere else) is doing, that they are only playing at being a country, at governing, while the "real" work goes on in Westminister, and that was always going to happen since England didn't get its own parliament. But that's part of the problem of being taught you're British and not English.

I apologise! I wandered off there for a bit. It isn't simple but the vote will be. May isn't Thatcher but she's trying to wear her shoes, she'll fail.

As an aside, if the SNP spoke to every single UK citizen living in the EU who hadn't wanted to leave the EU and offered them Scottish citizenship...

EDIT: I'll probably offend some here (and I don't mean to) but most of the English folk I've spoken to about this who don't want to see them go either talk wistfully about a shared past and perhaps you can see some heather on the mountain reflected in their eyes; or they rant at me about how they shouldn't be allowed to leave and why don't the Tories just close Holyrood, it's not like it's anything more than a county council anyway.
While most of the Scots I know want to go, and those that don't have quite reasoned arguments for staying, none of which *I* find convincing but which are actually debatable.  Welsh?  They've told me nothing! NOTHING!  And NI?  Let's not go there right now.