|
Post by charlesuirdhein on Jul 29, 2019 11:49:28 GMT
Looks like we are heading for no-deal Yes, Boris could be trying to bluff the EU into climbing down, but the British government is not leaving itself any wiggle room at all for a subsequent compromise. This could be the Donald Trump North Korea strategy or the Nixon goes to China strategy but it doesn't feel like it. They seem to be boxing themselves into a no-deal corner. Are there any grounds for optimism? Well, Boris may finally galvanise the Remainers in Parliament to up the ante. There doesn't seem to be a majority in Parliament for a 2nd ref but if Boris forces the soft brexiteers to come off the fence and choose between no delay and 2nd ref then there might just be that majority. But to be honest I'm not all that optimistic - the former Remainers are too divided and too lacking in backbone to do what is needed - they will faff about debating tactics, making excuses about party loyalty, and unable to decide between Common Market 2.0 or a 2nd ref until it is too late. You're correct I believe. I don't think he is trying to bluff the EU into climbing down, because they won't and he knows that. Or if he doesn't know that then he is truly stupid. But I forget, intelligence and stupidity are not mutually exclusive.
|
|
|
Post by Digi on Jul 29, 2019 11:55:07 GMT
Crazy thought: as one of the arch-Brexiteers, Johnson may be one of the only politicians who could theoretically put a stop to it without the Leave crowd losing their collective s--t (more than they already have, that is).
|
|
|
Post by sherlock on Jul 29, 2019 12:25:14 GMT
No deal just seems to loom ever larger.
|
|
|
Post by mark687 on Jul 29, 2019 12:33:36 GMT
Crazy Thought
I think he thinks we walk on the 31st October and we can walk back on 1st Nov with a new deal offer, because then its a new EU Commission and Article 50 is all about creating new relationship terms as opposed to cutting all ties.
I Don't see it happening though.
Regards
mark687
|
|
lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
|
Post by lidar2 on Jul 29, 2019 12:45:25 GMT
Crazy thought: as one of the arch-Brexiteers, Johnson may be one of the only politicians who could theoretically put a stop to it without the Leave crowd losing their collective s--t (more than they already have, that is). Not so crazy - on the "only Nixon could go to China" principle, it was possible he could have gone for something very like May's deal and succeeded where she failed simply by dint of his own charisma and political skills. I don't think he would or could ever have gone for a 2nd referendum, that would have been him totally finished. Up until last Wednesday something like that was still a possibility. But I think everything that has happened since then points in the opposite direction.
Dominic Cummings seems to be an aggressive bully and the government seems to be going for a shock and awe blitzkrieg approach to steamroll over their opponents in Parliament. I fear that this approach will ultimately be successful with regard to his opponents in the House of Commons, but will be unsuccessful in terms of prompting the EU27 to blink first and back down.
As I say, the one hope left is that he is so extreme in one direction that he galvanises his opponents to such an extent that they find their backbone, resolve their own differences, and oppose his policy. I think they have the numbers in Parliament to oppose no deal but they seem to lack the backbone and possibly also the time. Not so sure if they have the numbers for a 2nd ref, but now that Philip Hammond et al are at liberty on the backbenches that might change.
We're fond of quoting Churchill in this thread, but Edmund Burke's wisdom is hard to beat.
When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.
Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little
|
|
|
Post by sherlock on Jul 29, 2019 15:18:40 GMT
I don't know how accessible this link will be to everyone, but here The Prime Minister is saying he will go the extra mile ... the extra thousand miles ... to get this thing done. Sounds a bit like superficial bluster to me, but we'll see. 'No Deal' seems pretty much the way it will go, I think. Johnson is entirely superficial bluster.
|
|
|
Post by doctorkernow on Jul 29, 2019 18:15:07 GMT
Hello again.
Mr Johnson seems oblivious to everything but his own blinkered outdated vision of an imperial Britain strutting the world stage. Oh that and the Conservatives being in government for as long as possible.
|
|
|
Post by Digi on Aug 1, 2019 23:17:05 GMT
|
|
|
Post by iainmclaughlin on Aug 7, 2019 9:21:41 GMT
The current favourite plan to avoid no deal seems to be a vote of no confidence, which most political commentators expect the government to lose (there are more than enough sitting Tory MPs willing to bring the government down to avoid no deal) but not to immediately trigger a General Election. Instead, the rebel Tories hoing Labour, SNP and Lib-Dem is forming what's been getting described as a letter-writing government presided over by a caretaker PM from the back-benches - Margaret Beckett, Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper and Ken Clark are the names I've heard, though I'd assume it would have to be a non-Tory and Margaret Beckett is favourite, I think, because of her history and her lack of ambition towards the big job - and that government would exist only to obtain an extension on Article 50, to pass the legislation to avoid a no-deal and then to call a General Election. As far as I'm aware, talks on that are happening and there seems to be a lot of impetus behind it. Whether it happens or not... we shall see. I think we're at a point where making predictions is bonkers.
|
|
|
Post by doctorkernow on Aug 7, 2019 9:50:17 GMT
Hello again.
It is hopeful that no deal will be avoided but only by some creative thinking and cooperation between the more rational MPs. Hopefully.
An autumn election is almost a certainty but whether any new government will be given a significant mandate or be able to sort out the mess is definitely unclear.
|
|
|
Post by sherlock on Aug 7, 2019 12:24:56 GMT
MPs getting ready for the mother of all parliamentary battles by the sounds of it
|
|
lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
|
Post by lidar2 on Aug 7, 2019 12:58:26 GMT
MPs getting ready for the mother of all parliamentary battles by the sounds of it news.sky.com/story/sky-views-no-dealers-are-winning-because-they-want-it-more-11779078
Very insightful and at the same time depressing article on Sky News. Ultimately I think the brexiteers will have their way because the anti-brexiteers (in both main parties) don't have the guts and backbone to do what it takes to stop no deal.
Problem with Peter Kyle's view is that Corbyn won't play ball and the political reality is that, love him or loathe him, nothing is going to work without his co-operation because the parliamentary numbers aren't there without him
|
|
|
Post by doctorkernow on Aug 7, 2019 19:06:17 GMT
Hello again.
Well I hope the no dealers will stick around to clear up the inevitable fallout of no deal. From what I can see, there are huge implications and probably some noone has foreseen.
I cannot believe our elected representatives would take such a huge risk purely on rather shaky idealogical grounds. There must be some kind of hidden agenda. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
|
|
lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
|
Post by lidar2 on Aug 7, 2019 22:16:01 GMT
Another insightful but depressing article from Robert Peston. Cant post the link because i am on my phone but google peston's politics and you'll get it.
|
|
|
Post by doctorkernow on Aug 7, 2019 23:18:30 GMT
Hello again.
There are possibilities. Parliament is the supreme legislative body. I don't think, Johnson will be able to bring about no deal without overriding the general will of Parliament.
I think if Mr Johnson tries to initiate this disastrous course of events we will have to trust the MPs who oppose no deal to use every means at their disposal to frustrate him.
If they are unwilling to try and work together to prevent no deal we are heading for a miserable uncertain future.
|
|
|
Post by sherlock on Aug 7, 2019 23:30:35 GMT
Hello again. There are possibilities. Parliament is the supreme legislative body. I don't think, Johnson will be able to bring about no deal without overriding the general will of Parliament. I think if Mr Johnson tries to initiate this disastrous course of events we will have to trust the MPs who oppose no deal to use every means at their disposal to frustrate him. If they are unwilling to try and work together to prevent no deal we are heading for a miserable uncertain future. There are definitely ways and means at Parliament’s disposal. To my mind there’s two main routes- 1. Same tactics as March, amendment to seize control of the order paper and race through legislation to force the government to ask for an extension (no guarantee the EU will say yes, but on past form it’s a reasonable hope). This is difficult, but doable especially with a sympathetic Speaker in Bercow. 2. No confidence. Now here’s where things get complicated. Successful no confidence vote gives 14 days for a government to be formed that does have confidence of the House or election is called. Talk of a government of national unity, I see that as incredibly unlikely as Labour leadership won’t go for it. The complication here is in order for an election to be concluded before 31 October the no confidence process must begin within days of Parliament reconvening in September. Plus also the outcome of the election is completely out of Parliament’s hands and could simply return Boris as PM.
|
|
|
Post by whiskeybrewer on Aug 8, 2019 12:28:12 GMT
anyone fancy joining me in a Coup d'etat?
|
|
|
Post by doctorkernow on Aug 8, 2019 14:11:31 GMT
anyone fancy joining me in a Coup d'etat? Hello again. Be careful Whiskeybrewer, MI5 may be monitoring this forum!
|
|
|
Post by charlesuirdhein on Aug 8, 2019 16:04:21 GMT
anyone fancy joining me in a Coup d'etat? A cup of tea?
|
|
lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
|
Post by lidar2 on Aug 8, 2019 16:39:29 GMT
anyone fancy joining me in a Coup d'etat? It's no joke. If Boris tries to impose a no-deal against MPs expressed wishes I think we will see people on streets protesting, the like of which we have never before seen in the UK. Poll tax riots and anti-Iraq war protests will seem like a picnic in the park in comparison.
|
|