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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 21:48:36 GMT
Oh Brilliant! Finally a chance for the electorate to demonstrate where they stand in terms of wanting to leave the EU, or stay in. We've been asking years for a vote of some kind... Have we?
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 29, 2019 22:43:09 GMT
Oh Brilliant! Finally a chance for the electorate to demonstrate where they stand in terms of wanting to leave the EU, or stay in. We've been asking years for a vote of some kind... Well I think we can safely say now that Remain/2nd Ref will win the popular vote, insofar as parties inclined that way (Labour, Liberals, SNP, Plaid, Green, most of the NI parties) are likely to get a combined tally of over 50% of the vote, whereas the pro Leave parties (Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP) are likely to get fewer votes.
However winning the popular vote and winning a majority of MPs are 2 very different things in the UK electoral system.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2019 10:21:30 GMT
Oh Brilliant! Finally a chance for the electorate to demonstrate where they stand in terms of wanting to leave the EU, or stay in. We've been asking years for a vote of some kind... Well I think we can safely say now that Remain/2nd Ref will win the popular vote, insofar as parties inclined that way (Labour, Liberals, SNP, Plaid, Green, most of the NI parties) are likely to get a combined tally of over 50% of the vote, whereas the pro Leave parties (Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP) are likely to get fewer votes.
However winning the popular vote and winning a majority of MPs are 2 very different things in the UK electoral system.
Rules of the game is that whoever wishes to form a government must command a majority. This may be a coalition and can exclude the party with the most votes, where they themselves do not have 50% of the MP's elected or more and cannot partner up, as the Tories did with the Lib Dems and DUP in 2010 and 2017. Its all to play for and more of a gamble than many appreciate.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2019 11:30:01 GMT
So the election results will come in on Friday 13th!
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Post by number13 on Oct 30, 2019 11:47:06 GMT
Oh Brilliant! Finally a chance for the electorate to demonstrate where they stand in terms of wanting to leave the EU, or stay in. We've been asking years for a vote of some kind... Well I think we can safely say now that Remain/2nd Ref will win the popular vote, insofar as parties inclined that way (Labour, Liberals, SNP, Plaid, Green, most of the NI parties) are likely to get a combined tally of over 50% of the vote, whereas the pro Leave parties (Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP) are likely to get fewer votes.
However winning the popular vote and winning a majority of MPs are 2 very different things in the UK electoral system.
True, doing the double almost never happens under our system. I think the last twice were the 2010 Coalition (after the event of course but still a government with a majority of seats and votes) and before that, Harold Macmillan's Tories in 1959 by a whisker. But back then the Liberals (as they were) were almost extinct so practically everyone voted Conservative or Labour making 50%+ much easier to attain.
But imagine all our GEs fought under the French presidential runoff system (choose between the top two candidates, winner takes all) and the perceived best candidate for PM does usually becomes PM - though not always with a majority of seats which reflects the strength of voters' preference for the person. So our system does produce the 'right' result most of the time.
I think it would be a mistake to equate party choice and Brexit choice even at this election. There will be many Leave voters who still vote Labour because they are 'Labour people' and Remainers who still vote Conservative because they are proud Tories. And every other combination imaginable. (It's like some on the left try to lump together all non-Conservative voters as 'the anti-Tory vote' to prove the Tories don't really win! Does not work!)
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Post by number13 on Oct 30, 2019 11:50:54 GMT
So the election results will come in on Friday 13th! Are you expecting 'A Nightmare on Downing Street'?
(Or another sequel; they do churn them out every couple of years these days... )
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Post by whiskeybrewer on Oct 30, 2019 12:05:52 GMT
So the election results will come in on Friday 13th! Jason Voorhees for Prime Minister
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2019 12:06:15 GMT
So the election results will come in on Friday 13th! Are you expecting 'A Nightmare on Downing Street'?
(Or another sequel; they do churn them out every couple of years these days... ) It will be horrifying. This country is doomed.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 30, 2019 13:20:57 GMT
Well I think we can safely say now that Remain/2nd Ref will win the popular vote, insofar as parties inclined that way (Labour, Liberals, SNP, Plaid, Green, most of the NI parties) are likely to get a combined tally of over 50% of the vote, whereas the pro Leave parties (Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP) are likely to get fewer votes.
However winning the popular vote and winning a majority of MPs are 2 very different things in the UK electoral system.
True, doing the double almost never happens under our system. I think the last twice were the 2010 Coalition (after the event of course but still a government with a majority of seats and votes) and before that, Harold Macmillan's Tories in 1959 by a whisker. But back then the Liberals (as they were) were almost extinct so practically everyone voted Conservative or Labour making 50%+ much easier to attain.
But imagine all our GEs fought under the French presidential runoff system (choose between the top two candidates, winner takes all) and the perceived best candidate for PM does usually becomes PM - though not always with a majority of seats which reflects the strength of voters' preference for the person. So our system does produce the 'right' result most of the time.
I think it would be a mistake to equate party choice and Brexit choice even at this election. There will be many Leave voters who still vote Labour because they are 'Labour people' and Remainers who still vote Conservative because they are proud Tories. And every other combination imaginable. (It's like some on the left try to lump together all non-Conservative voters as 'the anti-Tory vote' to prove the Tories don't really win! Does not work!)
Some dull electoral facts
Feb 1974 - Tories got more votes but Labour more seats so Labour formed minority government
1951 - Labour got more votes but Tories had a majority of 17 & formed majority government
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2019 13:25:08 GMT
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 30, 2019 13:39:50 GMT
IMHO it looks to me like the most entrenched MPs on both sides of the brexit divide have chosen to risk everything on a winner takes all election, rather than settle for a compromise soft bexit.
It seems pretty likely BJ's deal could have got through Parliament, albeit amended for a customs union. Ultimately both the Remainers and the Brexiteers were unwilling to settle for a soft brexit, and would rather risk it all on an election that they believe they will win. How either side could feel confident of victory is beyond me, it is extremely uncertain. Clearly, they can't both be right and one side or other will be left disappointed on 13th December, kicking themselves that they didn't go for a soft brexit when they had the chance.
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Post by number13 on Oct 30, 2019 13:57:30 GMT
True, doing the double almost never happens under our system. I think the last twice were the 2010 Coalition (after the event of course but still a government with a majority of seats and votes) and before that, Harold Macmillan's Tories in 1959 by a whisker. But back then the Liberals (as they were) were almost extinct so practically everyone voted Conservative or Labour making 50%+ much easier to attain.
But imagine all our GEs fought under the French presidential runoff system (choose between the top two candidates, winner takes all) and the perceived best candidate for PM does usually becomes PM - though not always with a majority of seats which reflects the strength of voters' preference for the person. So our system does produce the 'right' result most of the time.
I think it would be a mistake to equate party choice and Brexit choice even at this election. There will be many Leave voters who still vote Labour because they are 'Labour people' and Remainers who still vote Conservative because they are proud Tories. And every other combination imaginable. (It's like some on the left try to lump together all non-Conservative voters as 'the anti-Tory vote' to prove the Tories don't really win! Does not work!)
Some dull electoral facts
Feb 1974 - Tories got more votes but Labour more seats so Labour formed minority government
1951 - Labour got more votes but Tories had a majority of 17 & formed majority government
Very true - though in 1974 it wasn't a foregone conclusion; the Liberals did not want to 'prop up' Heath, if they had done he could have remained PM. (Better as it turned out that he was turned out!) And Labour did confirm the result, just about, later that year. (Two GEs in a year, no don't let's give them ideas! )
1951 is the real anomaly and from memory the two main parties were very very close in votes and it was an 'excess' of rural seats (rural Scottish if I'm remembering correctly; 'excess' relative to their number of voters) which gave it to Churchill. The Conservatives stayed in power for 12 years so I assume voters were happy enough with the ultimate result.
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Post by pazzer on Oct 30, 2019 14:21:35 GMT
Great another election, expecting Tory minority government and then no deal.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 30, 2019 14:31:06 GMT
Some dull electoral facts
Feb 1974 - Tories got more votes but Labour more seats so Labour formed minority government
1951 - Labour got more votes but Tories had a majority of 17 & formed majority government
Very true - though in 1974 it wasn't a foregone conclusion; the Liberals did not want to 'prop up' Heath, if they had done he could have remained PM. (Better as it turned out that he was turned out!) And Labour did confirm the result, just about, later that year. (Two GEs in a year, no don't let's give them ideas! )
1951 is the real anomaly and from memory the two main parties were very very close in votes and it was an 'excess' of rural seats (rural Scottish if I'm remembering correctly; 'excess' relative to their number of voters) which gave it to Churchill. The Conservatives stayed in power for 12 years so I assume voters were happy enough with the ultimate result.
In 1951 the Ulster Unionists were still officially part of the Conservative party so the Tories got 9 seats in which that were uncontested by Labour or Liberals.
In 1974 it was the first time the Unionists were not counted as Tories (Heath's decision after falling out with them). Ironically, had they been counted, the Tories would have had the most MPs
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2019 14:52:43 GMT
I think it would be a mistake to equate party choice and Brexit choice even at this election. There will be many Leave voters who still vote Labour because they are 'Labour people' and Remainers who still vote Conservative because they are proud Tories. And every other combination imaginable. (It's like some on the left try to lump together all non-Conservative voters as 'the anti-Tory vote' to prove the Tories don't really win! Does not work!)
That is absolutely the issue here in the NE of England - Labour heartlands where many people only ever vote for the one party, irrespective of the prospective candidate. That's why Tony Blair was accused of parachuting in his favoured cabinet ministers back in the nineties - guaranteed safe seats. Speaking to many people here now, they are disillusioned with things as they voted Leave by a healthy margin, but have seen their Labour MP's renege on promises to honour the result. Their response is that they feel they no longer have someone to vote for. They certainly will not switch parties or vote Tory for Brexits sake, but more likely abstain, or vote on traditional election issues such as the NHS, Crime and Employment. Indeed abstention is what many I have listened to are talking of doing, having been let down by their local MP (I may add that I am not party political myself and never have been). Its hard to tally party votes in a General Election to one issue, such as Brexit. It is however perhaps a cleaner fight, as the first referendum was a cross party campaign and marred by accusations of treachery on both sides. Labour MP's felt that Corbyn was not fully on-board, whilst the Tories suspected that Johnson & Gove were putting on a jolly good show for their CV's sake and not thinking long term. At least a GE allows us to consider a manifesto on a raft of policies.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 30, 2019 15:38:31 GMT
I think it would be a mistake to equate party choice and Brexit choice even at this election. There will be many Leave voters who still vote Labour because they are 'Labour people' and Remainers who still vote Conservative because they are proud Tories. And every other combination imaginable. (It's like some on the left try to lump together all non-Conservative voters as 'the anti-Tory vote' to prove the Tories don't really win! Does not work!)
That is absolutely the issue here in the NE of England - Labour heartlands where many people only ever vote for the one party, irrespective of the prospective candidate. That's why Tony Blair was accused of parachuting in his favoured cabinet ministers back in the nineties - guaranteed safe seats. Speaking to many people here now, they are disillusioned with things as they voted Leave by a healthy margin, but have seen their Labour MP's renege on promises to honour the result. Their response is that they feel they no longer have someone to vote for. They certainly will not switch parties or vote Tory for Brexits sake, but more likely abstain, or vote on traditional election issues such as the NHS, Crime and Employment. Indeed abstention is what many I have listened to are talking of doing, having been let down by their local MP (I may add that I am not party political myself and never have been). Its hard to tally party votes in a General Election to one issue, such as Brexit. It is however perhaps a cleaner fight, as the first referendum was a cross party campaign and marred by accusations of treachery on both sides. Labour MP's felt that Corbyn was not fully on-board, whilst the Tories suspected that Johnson & Gove were putting on a jolly good show for their CV's sake and not thinking long term. At least a GE allows us to consider a manifesto on a raft of policies. I think you are definitely right that people's traditional party loyalties are under strain like never before. As I've posted before my own sympathies are very much Tory all the way and I have always wanted them to win every previous election, but I really don't want Boris to win. Even putting brexit aside, the unlawful prorogation of Parliament, the expulsion of the 21 rebel MPs, all of Dominic Cummings' antics, BJ's total lack of integrity, the entryism of racist ex UKIPpers into the Tory Party, etc. etc. all make me want him to lose. A Corbyn government would be equally disastrous for the country, albeit in a different way, so my preferred outcome is a Lib-Lab coalition or a minority Labour government kept in check by the Lib Dems.
I live in NI so will have a different choice at the election, but if I was in GB I would be voting Lib Dem or else rebel Tory if I happened to live in Philip Hammond or Dominic Grieve's constituencies. I live in a very safe seat where the outcome is not in doubt but I will still vote anyway, probably for the UUP this time around even though the DUP will romp home.
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Post by doctorkernow on Oct 30, 2019 16:42:37 GMT
Hello again.
To quote Brenda from Bristol, what another one?! Three elections in four years. Terrific. What makes our politicians think that we, the electorate, will give any party a majority to carry out whatever they want to do.
I think that Brexit has broken two party domination and perhaps we are entering into a period of coalition politics that is more common in Europe. We desperately need coordination and a long-term strategy for all the extant countries of the UK.
Unfortunately, our politicians seem more interested in more short term quick fixes and vague or unworkable promises. Whoever forms the next government, will have exactly the same issues and problems to deal with as before. Am I confident that any administration will navigate us with vision and confidence. In short, no.
EDIT:Can I just say that it is a pleasure to be able to discuss politics whatever our views in this forum in an erudite,informative, funny and above all respectful manner. Thank you all.
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Post by number13 on Oct 30, 2019 17:57:10 GMT
That is absolutely the issue here in the NE of England - Labour heartlands where many people only ever vote for the one party, irrespective of the prospective candidate. That's why Tony Blair was accused of parachuting in his favoured cabinet ministers back in the nineties - guaranteed safe seats. Speaking to many people here now, they are disillusioned with things as they voted Leave by a healthy margin, but have seen their Labour MP's renege on promises to honour the result. Their response is that they feel they no longer have someone to vote for. They certainly will not switch parties or vote Tory for Brexits sake, but more likely abstain, or vote on traditional election issues such as the NHS, Crime and Employment. Indeed abstention is what many I have listened to are talking of doing, having been let down by their local MP (I may add that I am not party political myself and never have been). Its hard to tally party votes in a General Election to one issue, such as Brexit. It is however perhaps a cleaner fight, as the first referendum was a cross party campaign and marred by accusations of treachery on both sides. Labour MP's felt that Corbyn was not fully on-board, whilst the Tories suspected that Johnson & Gove were putting on a jolly good show for their CV's sake and not thinking long term. At least a GE allows us to consider a manifesto on a raft of policies. I think you are definitely right that people's traditional party loyalties are under strain like never before. As I've posted before my own sympathies are very much Tory all the way and I have always wanted them to win every previous election, but I really don't want Boris to win. Even putting brexit aside, the unlawful prorogation of Parliament, the expulsion of the 21 rebel MPs, all of Dominic Cummings' antics, BJ's total lack of integrity, the entryism of racist ex UKIPpers into the Tory Party, etc. etc. all make me want him to lose. A Corbyn government would be equally disastrous for the country, albeit in a different way, so my preferred outcome is a Lib-Lab coalition or a minority Labour government kept in check by the Lib Dems.
I live in NI so will have a different choice at the election, but if I was in GB I would be voting Lib Dem or else rebel Tory if I happened to live in Philip Hammond or Dominic Grieve's constituencies. I live in a very safe seat where the outcome is not in doubt but I will still vote anyway, probably for the UUP this time around even though the DUP will romp home.
Meaning that (if we believe what people have said) that Corbyn would have to resign in order for Labour to gain Lib Dem support? After just 'winning' an election? Somehow I doubt it.
I can take Brexit or leave it (no pun for once), for me it won't define the election. I voted Remain, I think we should Leave for democratic reasons. But some things matter more and though BJ's government would not be my first choice, this current Labour offering would be my last. My very last. You mentioned entryism and racism? There's only one party under official investigation by the EHRC and it's not the Tories.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2019 21:43:33 GMT
Am I the only one thinking that Jo Swinson, in expressing the position that she cannot allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister, hence her reluctance to form an alliance, whilst making increasingly vocal her own ambitions to be Prime Minister, potentially the next one, is sending a message to Labour moderates. Namely that in the event of a hung parliament or no overall majority, the only way to power will be to accept herself as leader of a coalition government between the two parties and not Jezza. It would seem to be her surest route to power, barring a big electoral party shift on the night from reds to yellows on the map.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2019 22:02:11 GMT
Am I the only one thinking that Jo Swinson, in expressing the position that she cannot allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister, hence her reluctance to form an alliance, whilst making increasingly vocal her own ambitions to be Prime Minister, potentially the next one, is sending a message to Labour moderates. Namely that in the event of a hung parliament or no overall majority, the only way to power will be to accept herself as leader of a coalition government between the two parties and not Jezza. It would seem to be her surest route to power, barring a big electoral party shift on the night from reds to yellows on the map. There's a very real chance the Libs will remain as the 4th biggest party at the GE - surely the PM can't be from that low down the pecking order. I mean...anyone who can command confidence can become PM, sure, but realistically that would be quite a coup (literally and figuratively)
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