lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 18, 2019 12:51:56 GMT
Who Would you like to see as the next Labour Party leader?
Now that we have the first official entrant to the race (Emily Thornberry) I though we could express our views and see who gets the DU vote.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 18, 2019 13:17:17 GMT
I voted for Yvette Cooper who is IMHO head and shoulders above the other candidates.
She has cabinet experience, is a sensible centrist on most issues, is a good media performer and I could see her as PM.
Keir Starmer is OK, but comes across to me as a safe pair of hands who will never set the world on fire. This in itself would of course be a huge improvement on Corbyn, but I think he would make up some lost ground in the North and Midlands and come a respectable 2nd in the next general election
Emily Thornberry would probably be OK, but her 2014 tweet of a picture of a house with a white van and 3 St George's flags that led to her resignation from Ed Miliband's shadow cabinet, and her recent (alleged) comments about my constituents aren't as stupid as yours, would be used mercilessly by the Tories and would destroy her credibility with the traditional Labour voters she would need to win back.
Long-Bailey and Rayner are just Corbyn without the beard and would do nothing to get Labour back onto the centre ground where it needs to be.
Lisa Nandy and Jess Philips just seem a bit too lightweight for the role, but if they win I could be eating those words in a couple of years' time.
Having said all that, the hard left membership will not elect Yvette Cooper and will probably end up choosing RLB. Keir Starmer is probably about the best we could realistically hope for.
As for the argument Labour lost because of its support for a 2nd referendum, I would say Labour backed a 2nd ref without backing Remain and that was the problem. Backing a 2nd ref made no sense if you did not back Remain. Labour's neutrality was premised on an assumption that Labour leavers were never going to change their mind about leaving so Labour had to compensate them with lots of other good policies and hope they would vote Labour in spite of the 2nd referendum pledge. I think if the Labour leadership had made a strong case for Remain by saying Labour thinks the 2016 referendum was a mistake that is going to have terrible consequences for the economy, the NHS, manufacturing jobs, etc then some of those Labour leavers could have been won over. Instead what they said was we don't really have a view on brexit, we sort of accept the 2016 referendum but there are a lot of Remainers not happy so we're going to give them another chance in a 2nd referendum to keep them happy - no wonder Labour leavers didn't buy it!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 13:25:26 GMT
Jess Phillips gets my vote. I'm slightly biased as I've met her but think she is what the party needs. I feel the party has, rightly or wrongly, been perceived as too London centric with voters over the last few years. Alongside the new leader we need to expunge the momentum cult from the party.
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Post by Digi on Dec 18, 2019 14:02:54 GMT
I don’t know who any of these people are right now, so I’ll be very interested to learn and see how this plays out.
Bottom line though (and this goes for Democrats in the US as well): for the love of god, don’t just pick someone who’s popular with the base or who necessarily ticks all the boxes of your personal political litmus test. Governing is about compromise, not absolutism—so please, pick someone who is politically attractive enough to win general elections. Better to have a PM who aligns with 5 of the 10 things you want, than an opposing party PM who ticks zero of your boxes.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 14:51:26 GMT
Starmer.
For me personally he's too centrist but that's what Labour need right now - and he has credibility from his leadership of the CPS and his military career, a past which would not be as obviously deridable as Corbyn's. He would be able, crucially, to connect with the media too and would be much more likely to get endorsements from outlets who otherwise mercilessly attacked his predecessors. There are candidates who have politics I prefer but none are as electable or as statesperson like as I can see Starmer being.
However with Labour's nonsense leadership election model we could just see another Corbyn who is beloved by the left but appeals to no-one outside of their own crowd. There NEEDS to be someone who appeals to older people, to the North, to Wales. I think Scotland is pretty much gone now but Starmer I think connects more than any of the others, maybe not everywhere, but he's got a credibility that other candidates don't.
I'd love to see a Starmer/Jess Phillips team but Jess will go for leader rather than deputy I imagine.
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Post by sherlock on Dec 18, 2019 14:53:21 GMT
Allegedly Long-Bailey and Rayner have agreed that Rayner will run for Deputy and Long-Bailey for Leader (they’re flatmates so hardly likely to run against each other). That will probably end up being the ‘continuity Corbyn’ ticket, though Long-Bailey doesn’t have quite the same history of being on hard left as Corbyn.
Yvette Cooper, I think would be a good leader but I’m doubtful she’ll run. She tried and failed in 2015 and is now on a perilously small majority. I’d be surprised if she put herself forward.
Keir Starmer was bookies’ early favourite. He’s experienced and conducted himself well in Brexit Parliamentary battles. Starmer will face something of an uphill battle with the membership due to his role in the second referendum policy, which a lot of the Corbyn supporting figures are blaming for the loss. He’s also London-based, which some are arguing should be ruled out given the main challenge for the leader will be winning back the North. He has done an interview for the Guardian, which I haven’t read in full yet.
Lisa Nandy could end up being the dark horse, I suspect. She was part of the initial attempt to remove Corbyn, co-chairing Owen Smith’s campaign (god that feels like so long ago), so that could come back to haunt her, but other than that she’s got a fairly blank slate. She’s certainly making interesting manoeuvres so far, writing a piece for the Observer pretty soon after the result day.
Thornberry is only official candidate so far. She’s very tied up to the Corbyn era but claimed today in the Guardian she was actually opposed to backing the election (just not in public, I guess) so is evidently trying to distance herself from Corbyn’s perceived mistakes. Side note, ex-MP (as of Thursday) Caroline Flint claimed Thornberry called her constituents stupid, which Thornberry denied and was actually threatening to sue Flint over. So that’s a good start to her campaign.
As a floating centrist swing voter, I’d probably be happy with Starmer or Nandy.
Edit-Oh I forgot Jess Philips. She’s been a very vocal critic of Corbyn so will likely also face an uphill battle with the membership. Same London issue as Starmer as well. She’s a strong speaker, so could be the strongest charisma-wise.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,813
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 18, 2019 15:03:00 GMT
Edit-Oh I forgot Jess Philips. She’s been a very vocal critic of Corbyn so will likely also face an uphill battle with the membership. Same London issue as Starmer as well. She’s a strong speaker, so could be the strongest charisma-wise. She is MP for Birmingham Yardley & was born in the city as well
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Post by sherlock on Dec 18, 2019 15:05:40 GMT
Edit-Oh I forgot Jess Philips. She’s been a very vocal critic of Corbyn so will likely also face an uphill battle with the membership. Same London issue as Starmer as well. She’s a strong speaker, so could be the strongest charisma-wise. She is MP for Birmingham Yardley & was born in the city as well Must have confused her with someone else for a second. Well guess she’s got no problem there then.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,813
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 18, 2019 15:15:53 GMT
Starmer. For me personally he's too centrist but that's what Labour need right now - and he has credibility from his leadership of the CPS and his military career, a past which would not be as obviously deridable as Corbyn's. He would be able, crucially, to connect with the media too and would be much more likely to get endorsements from outlets who otherwise mercilessly attacked his predecessors. There are candidates who have politics I prefer but none are as electable or as statesperson like as I can see Starmer being. However with Labour's nonsense leadership election model we could just see another Corbyn who is beloved by the left but appeals to no-one outside of their own crowd. There NEEDS to be someone who appeals to older people, to the North, to Wales. I think Scotland is pretty much gone now but Starmer I think connects more than any of the others, maybe not everywhere, but he's got a credibility that other candidates don't. I'd love to see a Starmer/Jess Phillips team but Jess will go for leader rather than deputy I imagine. You will know a lot more about it than I do, but do you really think Scotland is gone for Labour?
There was a time when the Tories were dead in Scotland and look how they came back.
Plus, is it not possible the Alex Salmond trial will dent the SNP support? When the full story of his antics comes out, will there not be a lot of questions raised about how much senior SNP figures really knew or suspected there was something amiss but did nothing?
Without Ruth Davidson leading the Tories, could Labour not overtake the Tories in the next Scottish Parliament election to be come the main opposition once again? That would give them a platform for a comeback.
Problem for Labour is that winning 326 seats in England and Wales alone is a big ask, something they only managed twice in the last 50 years in 1997 and 2001. Even with the big Labour landslide in 1966 without their Scottish seats their majority would only have been 2. So short of a complete Tory meltdown akin to the 1992-97 Parliament, Labour are very unlikely to win outright without Scotland.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 16:29:02 GMT
Starmer. For me personally he's too centrist but that's what Labour need right now - and he has credibility from his leadership of the CPS and his military career, a past which would not be as obviously deridable as Corbyn's. He would be able, crucially, to connect with the media too and would be much more likely to get endorsements from outlets who otherwise mercilessly attacked his predecessors. There are candidates who have politics I prefer but none are as electable or as statesperson like as I can see Starmer being. However with Labour's nonsense leadership election model we could just see another Corbyn who is beloved by the left but appeals to no-one outside of their own crowd. There NEEDS to be someone who appeals to older people, to the North, to Wales. I think Scotland is pretty much gone now but Starmer I think connects more than any of the others, maybe not everywhere, but he's got a credibility that other candidates don't. I'd love to see a Starmer/Jess Phillips team but Jess will go for leader rather than deputy I imagine. You will know a lot more about it than I do, but do you really think Scotland is gone for Labour?
There was a time when the Tories were dead in Scotland and look how they came back.
Plus, is it not possible the Alex Salmond trial will dent the SNP support? When the full story of his antics comes out, will there not be a lot of questions raised about how much senior SNP figures really knew or suspected there was something amiss but did nothing?
Without Ruth Davidson leading the Tories, could Labour not overtake the Tories in the next Scottish Parliament election to be come the main opposition once again? That would give them a platform for a comeback.
Problem for Labour is that winning 326 seats in England and Wales alone is a big ask, something they only managed twice in the last 50 years in 1997 and 2001. Even with the big Labour landslide in 1966 without their Scottish seats their majority would only have been 2. So short of a complete Tory meltdown akin to the 1992-97 Parliament, Labour are very unlikely to win outright without Scotland.
No they're almost completely irrelevant here now and there's no clear path back without declaring themselves independent of the UK party. I think the majority of the country wouldn't be able to pick Richard Leonard, Scot-Labour leader, out of a lineup. Too often, especially in the Indy ref, they found themselves having to fight the UK party's stance when, actually, there are a lot of Labour voters who back independence. I think taking one seat out of 59 tells its own story.There are also a lot of people have the impression, mostly media led, that the SNP retain support election after election because of their independence stance whereas the truth is...they govern well. We get the free prescriptions, free bus passes for the elderly, protection from the bedroom tax etc because of them. Indeed a lot of Corbyn's "radical" ideas have been SNP policies for years. The SNP have been in office here since 2007 governing in both minority and majority governments. Even the Tory surge with Ruth Davidson couldn't get near them and that surge is unlikely to be replicated now she has left and Johnson is the UK PM. Yet Labour have made up no ground. Jack McConnell, Iain Gray, Johann Lamont, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale....they've all been seen off by the SNP easily. Of the new generation of politicians making waves none of them are coming from Labour. They don't have a Humza Yousaf or Mhari Black. If you could see a way back for them - drop them an email, they'd make you leader in a week! I don't think the Salmond trial damages the SNP anyway. Sturgeon has long been a proponent of the MeeToo movement and she's said she stands with the victims, regardless of whether it's a celebrity or her old boss. She took too long to refer the matter on, absolutely, and deserves criticism of that but there's no sense here that it damages the SNP in any electoral sense. If the Scottish elections were this coming May, rather than 2021, then it may be more of a worry PR-wise. Salmond has been gone long enough from the frontline and being in office that it'll be less an issue than if he were still an MP. Honestly the (male) leaders of the Labour, Tory and Lib parties here would be unable to make too much capital from it and I don't think it'd be a good look if they tried. Labour not winning outright in Scotland is fine, the SNP would always lend their confidence even on a vote-by-vote basis rather than put Tories into power so they would be locking out the Conservatives either way. Since we don't use First Past The Post in Scotland but the Additional Member System, a form of Proportional Representation, it's entirely possible that Labour can overtake the Tories and be the opposition again but right now that seems to be about the height of their abilities. They won't be forming a government anytime soon.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 18, 2019 16:57:48 GMT
You will know a lot more about it than I do, but do you really think Scotland is gone for Labour?
There was a time when the Tories were dead in Scotland and look how they came back.
Plus, is it not possible the Alex Salmond trial will dent the SNP support? When the full story of his antics comes out, will there not be a lot of questions raised about how much senior SNP figures really knew or suspected there was something amiss but did nothing?
Without Ruth Davidson leading the Tories, could Labour not overtake the Tories in the next Scottish Parliament election to be come the main opposition once again? That would give them a platform for a comeback.
Problem for Labour is that winning 326 seats in England and Wales alone is a big ask, something they only managed twice in the last 50 years in 1997 and 2001. Even with the big Labour landslide in 1966 without their Scottish seats their majority would only have been 2. So short of a complete Tory meltdown akin to the 1992-97 Parliament, Labour are very unlikely to win outright without Scotland.
No they're almost completely irrelevant here now and there's no clear path back without declaring themselves independent of the UK party. I think the majority of the country wouldn't be able to pick Richard Leonard, Scot-Labour leader, out of a lineup. Too often, especially in the Indy ref, they found themselves having to fight the UK party's stance when, actually, there are a lot of Labour voters who back independence. I think taking one seat out of 59 tells its own story.There are also a lot of people have the impression, mostly media led, that the SNP retain support election after election because of their independence stance whereas the truth is...they govern well. We get the free prescriptions, free bus passes for the elderly, protection from the bedroom tax etc because of them. Indeed a lot of Corbyn's "radical" ideas have been SNP policies for years. The SNP have been in office here since 2007 governing in both minority and majority governments. Even the Tory surge with Ruth Davidson couldn't get near them and that surge is unlikely to be replicated now she has left and Johnson is the UK PM. Yet Labour have made up no ground. Jack McConnell, Iain Gray, Johann Lamont, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale....they've all been seen off by the SNP easily. Of the new generation of politicians making waves none of them are coming from Labour. They don't have a Humza Yousaf or Mhari Black. If you could see a way back for them - drop them an email, they'd make you leader in a week! I don't think the Salmond trial damages the SNP anyway. Sturgeon has long been a proponent of the MeeToo movement and she's said she stands with the victims, regardless of whether it's a celebrity or her old boss. She took too long to refer the matter on, absolutely, and deserves criticism of that but there's no sense here that it damages the SNP in any electoral sense. If the Scottish elections were this coming May, rather than 2021, then it may be more of a worry PR-wise. Salmond has been gone long enough from the frontline and being in office that it'll be less an issue than if he were still an MP. Honestly the (male) leaders of the Labour, Tory and Lib parties here would be unable to make too much capital from it and I don't think it'd be a good look if they tried. Labour not winning outright in Scotland is fine, the SNP would always lend their confidence even on a vote-by-vote basis rather than put Tories into power so they would be locking out the Conservatives either way. Since we don't use First Past The Post in Scotland but the Additional Member System, a form of Proportional Representation, it's entirely possible that Labour can overtake the Tories and be the opposition again but right now that seems to be about the height of their abilities. They won't be forming a government anytime soon. I was at uni and in a few tutorial groups with the Labour MSP Jenny Marra - didn't really know her but she seemed nice. For that reason alone she'd get my vote for Scottish Labour leader!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 18:08:45 GMT
No they're almost completely irrelevant here now and there's no clear path back without declaring themselves independent of the UK party. I think the majority of the country wouldn't be able to pick Richard Leonard, Scot-Labour leader, out of a lineup. Too often, especially in the Indy ref, they found themselves having to fight the UK party's stance when, actually, there are a lot of Labour voters who back independence. I think taking one seat out of 59 tells its own story.There are also a lot of people have the impression, mostly media led, that the SNP retain support election after election because of their independence stance whereas the truth is...they govern well. We get the free prescriptions, free bus passes for the elderly, protection from the bedroom tax etc because of them. Indeed a lot of Corbyn's "radical" ideas have been SNP policies for years. The SNP have been in office here since 2007 governing in both minority and majority governments. Even the Tory surge with Ruth Davidson couldn't get near them and that surge is unlikely to be replicated now she has left and Johnson is the UK PM. Yet Labour have made up no ground. Jack McConnell, Iain Gray, Johann Lamont, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale....they've all been seen off by the SNP easily. Of the new generation of politicians making waves none of them are coming from Labour. They don't have a Humza Yousaf or Mhari Black. If you could see a way back for them - drop them an email, they'd make you leader in a week! I don't think the Salmond trial damages the SNP anyway. Sturgeon has long been a proponent of the MeeToo movement and she's said she stands with the victims, regardless of whether it's a celebrity or her old boss. She took too long to refer the matter on, absolutely, and deserves criticism of that but there's no sense here that it damages the SNP in any electoral sense. If the Scottish elections were this coming May, rather than 2021, then it may be more of a worry PR-wise. Salmond has been gone long enough from the frontline and being in office that it'll be less an issue than if he were still an MP. Honestly the (male) leaders of the Labour, Tory and Lib parties here would be unable to make too much capital from it and I don't think it'd be a good look if they tried. Labour not winning outright in Scotland is fine, the SNP would always lend their confidence even on a vote-by-vote basis rather than put Tories into power so they would be locking out the Conservatives either way. Since we don't use First Past The Post in Scotland but the Additional Member System, a form of Proportional Representation, it's entirely possible that Labour can overtake the Tories and be the opposition again but right now that seems to be about the height of their abilities. They won't be forming a government anytime soon. I was at uni and in a few tutorial groups with the Labour MSP Jenny Marra - didn't really know her but she seemed nice. For that reason alone she'd get my vote for Scottish Labour leader! Jenny's a bit of a name - her uncle Michael was quite a well known folk musician with quite a cult and she herself is married to John Thomson of DC THomson fame. Maybe she can get Desperate Dan to run for Labour. Of course Lord Snooty already is - I think he grew up to be a certain Rees Mogg! You know...we're obviously sidetracking this into Scot-politics but I reckon if Sturgeon was unionist she'd be Labour and I reckon the best shout for leader in that alt-reality wheras Ruth Davidson, a true One Nation Conservative, would be a much better Tory leader than any of her recent predecessors. Maybe there's something in the water here.
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Post by number13 on Dec 18, 2019 18:32:32 GMT
(Please accept this as a non-partisan contribution from a Conservative poster.)
Labour urgently need a leader like Jess Philips.
But I think they are much more likely to choose a Corbynista, or at best, a 'Metropolitan Remainer'. From the TV news over the last few days, many in the party seem to be in complete denial (and I'm sure online is much worse.) Yes, I am still being non-partisan - I watched the Conservatives do a similar thing for five or six years after 1997, to consider every possible reason they lost except for the glaringly obvious one: if people don't like you or don't trust you or think you don't speak for people like them, they won't vote for you.
Once that happens, it takes a lot of effort to change people's minds.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 18:39:28 GMT
(Please accept this as a non-partisan contribution from a Conservative poster.)
Labour urgently need a leader like Jess Philips.
But I think they are much more likely to choose a Corbynista, or at best, a 'Metropolitan Remainer'. From the TV news over the last few days, many in the party seem to be in complete denial (and I'm sure online is much worse.) Yes, I am still being non-partisan - I watched the Conservatives do a similar thing for five or six years after 1997, to consider every possible reason they lost except for the glaringly obvious one: if people don't like you or don't trust you or think you don't speak for people like them, they won't vote for you.
Once that happens, it takes a lot of effort to change people's minds. Jess would rip Johnson to shreds at PMQs. I just don't see her getting favourable coverage and even now I do think media profile means a lot. Is she someone I can imagine Rupert Murdoch's empire backing like they did Blair? I don't know. I could see it with Starmer but does he get the Northern votes, is he seen as another southerner telling the North what's good for them? I'm glad I'm not Labour, frankly, as there is no obvious answer here. In an era where people are placing trust in Boris bloody Johnson, a serial liar, philanderer and a PM who has already broken the law....who knows what "trust" even means.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 18:49:35 GMT
(Please accept this as a non-partisan contribution from a Conservative poster.)
Labour urgently need a leader like Jess Philips.
But I think they are much more likely to choose a Corbynista, or at best, a 'Metropolitan Remainer'. From the TV news over the last few days, many in the party seem to be in complete denial (and I'm sure online is much worse.) Yes, I am still being non-partisan - I watched the Conservatives do a similar thing for five or six years after 1997, to consider every possible reason they lost except for the glaringly obvious one: if people don't like you or don't trust you or think you don't speak for people like them, they won't vote for you.
Once that happens, it takes a lot of effort to change people's minds. Absolutely. It's almost unfathomable that Tories thought Ian Duncan Smith or Michael Howard could ever be PM. Hague could have been better but he was on a hiding to nothing coming in right after the Labour landslide. Labour need to change their leadship elections back. Momentum having so much power is never going to produce someone with broad enough appeal.
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Post by pazzer on Dec 18, 2019 19:50:32 GMT
The only name I recognize is Jess Philips so voted for her. Just hope whoever wins the labour party is more effective opposition.
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Post by iainmclaughlin on Dec 18, 2019 22:21:06 GMT
Labour desperately needs a grown up as its leader now, and it needs to accept that just finding another face for Corbynism isn't the answer. I think that's what they're in real danger of doing with Rebecca Long-Bailey, though. She's the continuity candidate but I don't get why they'd want continuity from something so soundly rejected. She's also, and there's no nice way to say this, absolutely rotten on TV. A 21st century politician needs to be, to some extent, a performer. Not necessarily showy and blustering, but capable of giving a compelling, engaging vision with which they will be able to sweep their audience along. They've got to sell a vision. They've got to *have* a vision first of course but then they have to be able to sell it. Having seen Rebecca Long-Bailey on TV a fair bit in the last couple of years, I'll be more polite and say she is unlikely to inspirire a political movement. The nickname of Rebecca Wrong-Daily is never going to leave her either. I think she'd be a disaster for Labour. I find Lisa Nandy similarly dour and I don't see her as a leader. Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry are both tainted by being in Corbyn's cabinet though I think either would be an infinitely better leader than Corbyn. I think Starmer is a non-starter because it's going to be a woman who leads them next, and Thornberry has made enemies inside the party, so it'll be tough for her. Angela Rayner would have been a good bet, but she's thrown her support behing Long-Bailey. Jess Phillips is someone who can and does connect with people. She's grounded and she's not from London, which is important if Labour want to reconnect with their Red Wall. There's something very real about her - but she has a lot of enemies inside Labour after daring to be critical of the Blessed Jeremy and those enemies would make her election difficult. Yvette Cooper would have been my pick 4 years ago and probably would still be now, but she's a non-starter. She is seen as a Blairite. She is, hoever, enormously competent, can build cooperation and can take her opponents apart when she has to - just as Theresa May about the way Cooper dissected her live on TV at a committee hearing. Yvette Cooper also brings the very media friendly Ed Balls to the party - and don't underestimate how important it will be for the new leader just to be liked. She's also a Scot (born in Inverness, I believe, and Inversneckie is one of the most fab places there is - this sentence is free advertising for the Inverness Tourist Board) which makes her the obvious choice in my biased eyes. There might well be somebody else in the party who could make a run, but I fear Labour is going to go with Long-Bailey and Labour will wind up in worse condition. Personally I'd like it to be Philips or Cooper though.
davygallacher used a word to descrive Labour in Scotland - irrelevant. He is absolutely spot on. They've had a run of useless leaders as they've drifted towards oblivion. A third place finish in a GE in Scotland - less than 19% of the vote and a solitary MP, after finishing fifth, that's FIFTH with less than 10% of the vote in the European elections... they've been replaced. The SNP took their role as the centre left party, but they were a centre left party with a clear message and a party which went out to engage with the public. Labour took the Scots vote for granted and we gave them a kicking for it. They learned absolutely nothing and took their Midlands and north of England vote for granted... and got another kicking for it. Labour are one bad choice of leader away from being as dead in all of the UK as they are in Scotland.
I'm an SNP party member now. I want independence, I want Scotland to make its own path, but whatever party is in power at Westminster it must - MUST - have an effective Opposition. I desperately hope Labour gets its act together and picks somebody who can stand up to Johnson both in terms of competence and personality. He is big on the latter but wanting in the former, and he is wretched when it comes to detail. However, he will steamroller many of the Labour candidates. They need somebody with personality, with grit and with an analytical mind. If they get the choice wrong, I don't see how they survive in their current form.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 19, 2019 12:28:38 GMT
I'm not convinced by the "Labour is done for" argument, either for England or Scotland. The political pendulum ALWAYS swings sooner or later.
There comes a point with any party that has been in power for a long time when they start to take it for granted and the wheels come off the wagon - the cumulative effect of scandals, sleaze, unforced errors, internal arguments about policy, clashing egos, battles for the succession, a general feeling in the population that it is "time for change", a perception of being out of touch, misjudging the public mood, taking voters for granted, etc. It always happens sooner or later to every party that is in power for a long period of time, whether on the left or the right of the political spectrum. And it will inevitably happen to both the Tories at Westminster and the SNP at Holyrood. And when it does, another party or combination of parties will take office. And in both London and Edinburgh I can't see it being any party other than Labour. Probably not any time soon, possibly only after they have some sort of electoral pact with the Lib Dems, and maybe only a brief interregnum before the Tories/SNP return to power, but sooner or later there will be a Labour government again. The only way there wouldn't be another Labour government is if another party emerged on the centre-left to replace them. But the first past the post system is stacked against a new party - even a relatively popular one like UKIP/Brexit has made no inroads into Westminster and the Greens have only 1 MP. The SDP failed, Change UK failed, the Lib Dems perform best among better off voters, so I really can't see a successful rival to Labour emerging on the Left. It would take a mass defection by the majority of Labour MPs to give it the critical mass and I don't see that happening. Although nothing is impossible.
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Post by sherlock on Dec 20, 2019 11:17:13 GMT
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Jan 6, 2020 13:03:30 GMT
So the field now looks like being:
Sir Keir Starmer Emily Thornberry Clive Lewis Lisa Nandy Jess Philips And more than likely Rebecca Long-Bailey Possibly Ian Lavery
Given the rules for getting nominations, it is by no means certain that all 6 will actually make it onto the ballot paper.
Possibly RLB will not stand. If you look a the attacks she is already getting in the media and what Corbyn got, she may well be thinking twice about whether she wants to put herself and her family through it if she won. If she doesn't run, Ian Lavery likely will.
So far there are 2 declared candidates for deputy leader: Richard Burgon Angela Rayner
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