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Post by Audio Watchdog on Jun 11, 2017 17:52:38 GMT
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Post by jasonward on Jun 11, 2017 18:09:56 GMT
From the article: Which begs the question, what are the DUP getting out of the deal? No one will say, which surely means becuase if we did know we'd be horrified.
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Post by dalekbuster523finish on Jun 11, 2017 18:20:39 GMT
This is the best way for us to eventually end up with a Labour minority government. The inevitable disaster this Tory minority government with DUP is going to end up in is going to tarnish the Conservatives' reputation and finally open people's eyes.
Labour are for the many, not the few.
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Post by sherlock on Jun 11, 2017 18:33:38 GMT
This is the best way for us to eventually end up with a Labour minority government. The inevitable disaster this Tory minority government with DUP is going to end up in is going to tarnish the Conservatives' reputation and finally open people's eyes. Labour are for the many, not the few. A Labour minority government is an impossibility in the current Parliament. Mathematically it just wouldn't work. Should this Tory-DUP deal fail and another election occur (which would require a vote of no confidence, which to pass would require some Tory MPs to support it) a Labour win is a genuine possibility.
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Post by number13 on Jun 11, 2017 18:36:31 GMT
They are not trying to negotiate a full coalition between the two parties but only what is called a 'Confidence and Supply' agreement. In other words, the Conservatives would run a minority government where the DUP vote with them to keep the Government in power on votes of confidence, and to pass the budgets. In theory some other areas of policy where the two parties agree might also be included, for example defence and security. For every other bill, the Tories would still have to win a majority of the House, maybe with the DUP, maybe not, on a vote-by-vote basis. So, fundamental disagreements on some issues (like social policy) need not block a basic deal, especially when (as here) those issues are devolved to the nations of the U.K. These agreements are quite common in Europe (ironically, aren't we being European now!) if very rare in the U.K.
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Post by dalekbuster523finish on Jun 11, 2017 18:38:54 GMT
This is the best way for us to eventually end up with a Labour minority government. The inevitable disaster this Tory minority government with DUP is going to end up in is going to tarnish the Conservatives' reputation and finally open people's eyes. Labour are for the many, not the few. A Labour minority government is an impossibility in the current Parliament. Mathematically it just wouldn't work. Should this Tory-DUP deal fail and another election occur (which would require a vote of no confidence, which to pass would require some Tory MPs to support it) a Labour win is a genuine possibility. I mean a Labour minority government after another General Election, but a Labour majority government would be amazing.
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Post by number13 on Jun 11, 2017 18:48:34 GMT
Incidentally, the government's numerical position is a bit stronger than the media are saying, because the DUP would actively have to vote AGAINST the Conservatives for them to lose any vote.
There are 318 Tories out of 643 and 10 DUP. Even if EVERY other MP (315) voted against them, if the DUP abstain, the Tories united would win a vote. There may also be votes where the Lib Dems choose to abstain or even vote with the Conservatives, even a handful of Labour rebels on some issues (on Brexit or defence, for example.)
Unless the opposition is fully united, a united Tory party outnumbers their opponents. Conversely, a few Tory rebels can help defeat their own side.
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Post by jasonward on Jun 11, 2017 18:50:16 GMT
This is the best way for us to eventually end up with a Labour minority government. The inevitable disaster this Tory minority government with DUP is going to end up in is going to tarnish the Conservatives' reputation and finally open people's eyes. Labour are for the many, not the few. A Labour minority government is an impossibility in the current Parliament. Mathematically it just wouldn't work. Should this Tory-DUP deal fail and another election occur (which would require a vote of no confidence, which to pass would require some Tory MPs to support it) a Labour win is a genuine possibility. I agree, I don't see how a minority Labour government could take power in any role other than caretaker biding time till the next election, they could never pass any legislation unless it was either with the support of the Conservatives, or if for some reason Conservative MP were willing to defy the whip whilst all the parties on the left and all their MP's supported Labour. The reality of it just doesn't work.
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Post by acousticwolf on Jun 11, 2017 19:17:08 GMT
I really hope we don't have another election within the next year. Estimates are that this one will cost the taxpayer approx. £143m. Just think what that money could have been used for!
Cheers
Tony
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Post by jasonward on Jun 11, 2017 20:56:38 GMT
I really hope we don't have another election within the next year. Estimates are that this one will cost the taxpayer approx. £143m. Just think what that money could have been used for! Cheers Tony I'll wager we will have an election well inside 12 months, this government will be inherently unstable, and all it will take is a good scandal or rebellious MP's. I'd give it between 4 and 8 months, tops.
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Post by lidar on Jun 11, 2017 20:57:08 GMT
Worth pointing out that elections are expensive, particularly for small parties like the DUP. They have already had 2 this year (NI Assembly and Westminster), there is possibly a 3rd (Assembly again) so for purely financial reasons they won't want another General Election. A further general election is likely to deprive them of their position of influence, so they won't throw it away lightly.
Labour's current confidence may make the Tories fearful of an election in the short term, which means both they and the DUP will calculate they have more to lose than gain from an election. The more confident Labour appear, the more it will keep potential Tory rebels in line. I could be spectacularly wrong in this prediction, but I have a feeling the post-election opinion polls are going to show Labour ahead of the Tories and Corbyn ahead of May. All of which will make the Tories want to cling on in the hope things turn again in their favour.
No one is talking about this, but where do Labour go next? Does Corbyn move to the centre in the hope of picking up more votes and re-uniting his party? Or is he emboldened by his success to move even further to the left? Does his success scare moderate Labour voters and Lib Dems into voting Tory, or does it give him momentum (no pun intended) to get more votes? If the government proves durable will 68 year old Corbyn wait another 4 or 5 years for another go?
As for the Tories, how long will May last? Will a new Tory leader heal the wounds, restore public confidence etc. Or will the party end up in civil war between hard and soft brexiters?
Will Arlene Foster survive the RHI scandal?
Unlike the Tory/Lib Dem coalition, the 2 parties will not be competing with each other for votes at the next election, which removes one potential source of discord within the new alliance.
For these reasons I think the Tory/DUP arrangement will prove reasonably stable, at least until the end of the brexit negotiation process.
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Post by lidar on Jun 11, 2017 21:02:04 GMT
From the article: Which begs the question, what are the DUP getting out of the deal? No one will say, which surely means becuase if we did know we'd be horrified. Keep in mind 1. The talks aren't complete 2. The DUP will not be transacting business on a Sunday
I think the terms of the deal will come out soon enough once it is finalised.
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Post by dalekbuster523finish on Jun 11, 2017 21:03:26 GMT
I really hope we don't have another election within the next year. Estimates are that this one will cost the taxpayer approx. £143m. Just think what that money could have been used for! Cheers Tony Unfortunately I think another General Election is inevitable in six months' time. Fortunately if Labour keep up their good work it might just mean a Labour minority government (if not a majority one).
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Post by sherlock on Jun 11, 2017 21:17:02 GMT
I doubt an election will happen unless the situation gets a lot worse. A vote of no confidence is the only way to end this situation and trigger an election, and that requires a Tory rebellion. I don't think any Tory would be willing to take the risk of an election and might just stomach the current situation.
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Post by Audio Watchdog on Jun 11, 2017 21:19:05 GMT
I doubt an election will happen unless the situation gets a lot worse. A vote of no confidence is the only way to end this situation and trigger an election, and that requires a Tory rebellion. I don't think any Tory would be willing to take the risk of an election and might just stomach the current situation. Surely Brexit talks starting in 10 days must have a huge impact on May remaining, right?
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Post by dalekbuster523finish on Jun 11, 2017 21:21:02 GMT
I doubt an election will happen unless the situation gets a lot worse. A vote of no confidence is the only way to end this situation and trigger an election, and that requires a Tory rebellion. I don't think any Tory would be willing to take the risk of an election and might just stomach the current situation. Things ARE going to get worse. Theresa May's just asked for help from a political party of homophobic terrorist sympathisers. There is no way that can't end badly.
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Post by sherlock on Jun 11, 2017 21:26:09 GMT
I doubt an election will happen unless the situation gets a lot worse. A vote of no confidence is the only way to end this situation and trigger an election, and that requires a Tory rebellion. I don't think any Tory would be willing to take the risk of an election and might just stomach the current situation. Surely Brexit talks starting in 10 days must have a huge impact on May remaining, right? There is also that. That's why I'm also doubtful Tories will mount a leadership challenge against May. By the sounds of it there's been efforts made to force her to listen more to the Cabinet so it seems the party is trying to force her to adopt a more consensual style.
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Post by sherlock on Jun 11, 2017 21:29:54 GMT
I doubt an election will happen unless the situation gets a lot worse. A vote of no confidence is the only way to end this situation and trigger an election, and that requires a Tory rebellion. I don't think any Tory would be willing to take the risk of an election and might just stomach the current situation. Things ARE going to get worse. Theresa May's just asked for help from a political party of homophobic terrorist sympathisers. There is no way that can't end badly. By the sounds of it the agreement will just be a confidence and supply agreement, so Tories basically govern and DUP get them over the line on crucial stuff like the budget. It's unlikely the DUP will be able to put any of their social conservatism before Parliament (and if they did it would get voted down easily, even vast majority of the Tories don't share the DUP's views). That said, we don't know what demands the DUP will make from the Tories yet (speculation so far is more money for Northern Ireland and prevention of prosecutions against the British army among a few other things)
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Post by dalekbuster523finish on Jun 11, 2017 21:33:53 GMT
Things ARE going to get worse. Theresa May's just asked for help from a political party of homophobic terrorist sympathisers. There is no way that can't end badly. By the sounds of it the agreement will just be a confidence and supply agreement, so Tories basically govern and DUP get them over the line on crucial stuff like the budget. It's unlikely the DUP will be able to put any of their social conservatism before Parliament (and if they did it would get voted down easily, even vast majority of the Tories don't share the DUP's views). That said, we don't know what demands the DUP will make from the Tories yet (speculation so far is more money for Northern Ireland and prevention of prosecutions against the British army among a few other things) Exactly, the DUP could make all kinds of terrifying demands. The current situation is nothing short of scary.
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Post by acousticwolf on Jun 11, 2017 21:35:13 GMT
I really hope we don't have another election within the next year. Estimates are that this one will cost the taxpayer approx. £143m. Just think what that money could have been used for! Cheers Tony I'll wager we will have an election well inside 12 months, this government will be inherently unstable, and all it will take is a good scandal or rebellious MP's. I'd give it between 4 and 8 months, tops. I've been telling people 6 months. Rediculous waste of money. Cheers Tony
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