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Post by jasonward on Dec 14, 2017 15:58:34 GMT
I have a few questions about the recent parliamentary vote on Brexit lost by the government.
First off, does it really matter? It seems nothing more than just making sure Parliament gets to vote on the final agreement, which seems to me to mean little, just like the judicial ruling that parliament must be the ones to evoke leaving the EU and not the government, despite all the wailing and gnashing of the Brexiteers over that, it made no difference, the vote happened and everything moved forward and democracy didn't collapse.
Does anyone seriously expect that the final Brexit will be voted against by parliament? And what would it do anyway? It seems to me to be a vote about who should pull the rip cord AFTER you've already jumped from the plane, surely the options are Brexit with agreement or Brexit without agreement? Or does the UK on the last day have to say "OK were out", is this what the vote will be about? If parliament failed to vote to agree the final Brexit agreement does that mean we remain part of the EU? If not, what is the Remainers plan?
I don't understand a great deal of this process, but it seems to me the options would only be
1) Parliament formally withdrawal our withdrawal notice - which whilst that might be my preferred option, seems incredibly unlikely. 2) Parliament votes against the Brexit Agreement and it counts for little as the EU and the government both basically say "too late, international agreement/treaty" (this sort thing has happened in Iceland within the last decade, twice I think). 3) Parliament votes against the Brexit Agreement and it counts, we hard exit the EU, revert to WTO and the EU perhaps even put sanctions on us to extract the money we owe. 4) Parliament votes against the Brexit Agreement and it counts, and we remain members of the EU. 5) Parliament votes for the Brexit Agreement and we exit along the lines that agreement lays out.
I'm expecting it to be 5 that happens with an outside chance of 2. 3 is possible but seems unlikely, 1 seems incredibly unlikely, and 4 would be so stunning but equally unlikely.
So the Remainers? What is their endgame? Why do they want the vote on the agreement? What does it give them?
Have I misunderstood something?
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Post by mark687 on Dec 14, 2017 16:17:20 GMT
Well there was always going to be a final vote anyway (lets not kid ourselves), because we want to have our cake and eat it, everything we want and if we don't get everything want, we can say no thanks and the EU will beg us for our trade and gives us everything we want at the 11th hour, but the likely outcome will be whatever Ireland and by extension the EU want and will agree to, so last night's vote amounts too "We've kept democracy honest to heck with the outcome". The UK sense of Fair Play triumphing over its common sense perhaps?
Regards
mark687
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Post by sherlock on Dec 14, 2017 16:26:42 GMT
I don't think you've misunderstood anything, as with everything to do with Brexit it's a bit of a mess. As for wanting a vote, there's multiple motives at work here.
Some MPs were possibly motivated by genuine belief in promoting Parliamentary sovereignty, it's a big idea in U.K. governing dating back to Davey (scholar who's considered a big authority on the UK constitution) in the 1880s.
Some more likely want to ensure the opportunity to have a chance to influence Brexit, as in order for this 'meaningful vote' to take place a bill must be placed before Parliament. As with every bill, there is the possibility to propose amendments. Crucially this would give the Opposition another chance to try and influence Brexit in some way, even if only through a minor amendment which is still better than nothing. This likely explains Labour's support for the rebellion.
Some MPs might hope this pushes the government towards a 'softer Brexit', as the Government will presumably try to make a deal that is likely to pass Parliament (for the deal to fail would be a monumental embarrassment for the government) so will seek an arrangement likely to please the majority of MPs-pushing it further away from minority hard Brexiteers' vision.
Are there some determined Remainer MPs who think this vote might be a backdoor way to cancel Brexit completely? Possibly, though I can't see how that might be achieved. By voting for initiating Article 50 MPs have already okayed leaving, so I can't see how voting against the deal undoes that.
What if the deal is voted against? Well it depends when this vote is held, expectations seem to be for March 2019-same month as the Article 50 deadline. Now if it were to fail, I think the possibility to extend the deadline does exist (I can't remember where exactly I read that though) however the government is at the moment pushing for an amendment to the European Withdrawal Bill to legally set the date as 29 March. If that amendment passes, and then this deal fails-the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal in place. And in that case WTO is the only option. This is why a rebellion to stop the government's amendment (possibly next week) is also likely.
I don't think the agreement is in danger of actually being voted against unless whatever's agreed is really toxic. I remember much speculation following the Gina Miller Supreme Court case last year that Parliament would block Article 50 and in the end that went through without a hitch.
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Post by jasonward on Dec 14, 2017 16:36:43 GMT
Thanks for that sherlockOne thing that I really want to know that, is can we, the UK, unilaterally, cancel the Brexit process? And if so, on the day of exit, does Brexit just happen on that date because it's merely 2 years after we gave notice, or do we, the UK, need to make some kind of formal notification to say, "we left"?
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Post by jasonward on Dec 14, 2017 16:53:27 GMT
I've posted before, that as far as I could tell, once Article 50 was invoked, parliament and the people were just along for the ride. Sure, in theory both parliament and the people should be able to influence the deal, but that kind of influence takes time, time doesn't exist in this case. We will get (I believe) whatever deal the government is willing and able to negotiate and parliament will have to take it or leave it... and I'm not even sure they would get the opportunity to leave it (reject the agreement) as I expect any government, even a new one formed in the wake of such a humiliating parliamentary defeat would see little option but to move forward with the agreement in order to minimise the harm done the UK.
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Post by ulyssessarcher on Dec 14, 2017 17:16:12 GMT
I don't follow Britians politics much, but someone told me, that immigrants now make up a majority of citizens, is there any truth in that?
As far as the EU goes, there were a group of Christians who believed it to be prophesied in Revelations, and if they are right, yall have no chance of getting out of it...just sayin...not that I think they are right, it's just an interesting theory, got to remember, one of the main prophesies concerns one world currency...(I figure bitcoin, but I haven't researched it much yet, other things to do.)
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Post by TinDogPodcast on Dec 14, 2017 17:34:09 GMT
I don't follow Britians politics much, but someone told me, that immigrants now make up a majority of citizens, is there any truth in that? No
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 17:38:38 GMT
I don't follow Britians politics much, but someone told me, that immigrants now make up a majority of citizens, is there any truth in that? 12.7% of the UK population are foregin born according to the last census in 2011. Incidentally that's Less than the US, Canada or Australia... so whatever friend told you that, well, they're either not too good with numbers, making stuff up to push the kind of agenda that would appeal to someone with your political leanings or a straight up liar. Take your pick.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 17:40:07 GMT
As always, I must stress I do not understand a lot of what Brexit means. I actively avoid the news a lot of the time. It depresses me. But you can't escape Brexit!
I read conflicting reports that do nothing other than deliberately obfuscate the issue to their own agenda (it seems to me). The Government are using the upheaval of leaving the EU as an excuse to push forward certain laws and legislation that satisfy their own policies rather than what was voted for, I read. However, that viewpoint could be being used by a media that has an anti-Government agenda and is seeking to undermine them. Elsewhere, an American report (I think) has predicted the UK's economy will be 4.7% worse off than it is now - which although certainly not desirable, is hardly the maelstrom of disaster predicted by those who don't want Brexit.
So what do we believe? Or should I stick my head back under the pillow?
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Post by TinDogPodcast on Dec 14, 2017 17:43:09 GMT
Also. ..
I would be over the moon if we stayed in thr union...
What the UK shoukd gave done was become the guiding force and changed the union for the better.
A split union could end up going to war...
Oh no... that wouldn't happen.
They said that in 1913 and 1938...
Stability.
Sorry... I don't want to rant but it makes me sick to see what's happening
And as for bringing about armageddon?
I think someone saying... Jerusalem is the capital is more of a threat than the Euro or the bitcoin.
Breath!
I promiced myself I'd not comment.
Sorry
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Post by jasonward on Dec 14, 2017 17:52:08 GMT
I don't follow Britians politics much, but someone told me, that immigrants now make up a majority of citizens, is there any truth in that? Yes, the majority of the British population is made up from various immigrant waves that have overwhelmed the indigenous people of the islands, the first such wave contained many different people from across Europe and Northern Africa, the second major wave, and whose languages and customs now dominate were a French-Germans, followed by Scots from Ireland, since then there have been significant waves of immigration from the Nordic countries. The leadership classes (nobility etc) were almost to a person taken over by immigrant French, who were in turn immigrant of Nordic decent. There have also been significant influxes of Irish from Ireland and Scotland, Jews and Roma both from Asia, Huguenots from France and Indians from the Indian sub continent and all that took place prior to 19th century. Since the start of the 19th century there have been significant immigrant waves of Indians, Africans, Germans, Russians, Arabians, Belgium, Chinese, Cypriots, French, Hungarians, Italians, Jews, Poles, South Asians, West Indians and around 1 million peoples whose race is classified as "other". It's a bit like the US in that respect, the majority population are from immigrant stock.
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Post by ulyssessarcher on Dec 14, 2017 17:52:50 GMT
I don't follow Britians politics much, but someone told me, that immigrants now make up a majority of citizens, is there any truth in that? 12.7% of the UK population are foregin born according to the last census in 2011. Incidentally that's Less than the US, Canada or Australia... so whatever friend told you that, well, they're either not too good with numbers, making stuff up to push the kind of agenda that would appeal to someone with your political leanings or a straight up liar. Take your pick. ok, somebody had a reply on FB, and I thought it sounded pretty ridiculous, but I figured id ask people who should know...
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Post by ulyssessarcher on Dec 14, 2017 17:56:40 GMT
Also. .. I would be over the moon if we stayed in thr union... What the UK shoukd gave done was become the guiding force and changed the union for the better. A split union could end up going to war... Oh no... that wouldn't happen. They said that in 1913 and 1938... Stability. Sorry... I don't want to rant but it makes me sick to see what's happening And as for bringing about armageddon? I think someone saying... Jerusalem is the capital is more of a threat than the Euro or the bitcoin. Breath! I promiced myself I'd not comment. Sorry well, stating the obvious, should not be wrong....Jerusalem is the capital of Israel...congress voted that in back in the 90's, just never had a president with the courage to proclaim it, until now...now back to your regularly scheduled thread...
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