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Post by Digi on Sept 7, 2019 19:10:10 GMT
His cultish followers would probably see him as a martyr, sooner than acknowledge that he’s here because he thinks he’s entitled to rule rather than to govern.
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Post by sherlock on Sept 7, 2019 20:16:08 GMT
And there goes a Secretary of State
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 21:11:17 GMT
And with her resignation she confirms what we all knew - this government are lying about wanting any sort of deal and are only focusing on No Deal, their goal. ": “I no longer believe leaving with a deal is the government’s main objective. The government is expending a lot of energy to prepare for “No Deal” but I have not seen the same level intensity go into our talks with the EU”"
Damning.
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Post by sherlock on Sept 8, 2019 10:32:45 GMT
Ah the rebels’ plan may have a slight problem now.
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Post by TinDogPodcast on Sept 8, 2019 12:09:20 GMT
Ah the rebels’ plan may have a slight problem now. Indeed. The e u have said we can only have another extension if we have some huge issue. Like... an election
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Sept 9, 2019 7:58:03 GMT
Ah the rebels’ plan may have a slight problem now. I think this is just Macron posturing for the domestic voters. His previous position was an extension needed to be for a purpose like a 2nd ref or an election. This would be for an election.
Plus, more importantly, in terms of the "blame game" if there is a no deal brexit, he would be handing victory to Boris, and French voters who felt the pain would be none too pleased.
Also, there is precedent of which Macron will be aware - the unintended consequence of Chirac's threat to veto a 2nd UN resolution in favour of the Iraq War gave Bush and Blair the pretext they needed to stop trying to get one and instead to go ahead without one
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Sept 9, 2019 8:18:34 GMT
And with her resignation she confirms what we all knew - this government are lying about wanting any sort of deal and are only focusing on No Deal, their goal. ": “I no longer believe leaving with a deal is the government’s main objective. The government is expending a lot of energy to prepare for “No Deal” but I have not seen the same level intensity go into our talks with the EU”" Damning. Yes, very damning.
It is hard to see how Boris can expect to win a GE. If you take it as read he loses most if not all of his 13 Scottish MPs, will lose some Southern MPs to the Lib Dems and may lose some of seats currently held by the 21 rebels if they run as independents, can he really hope to offset those losses with enough extra votes and seats from Labour leavers to give him a majority? And yet he obviously thinks he can and he will have a team of bright graduates analysing votes at constituency level telling him that he can. He is throwing away the coalition of voters built by Cameron/Osborne that delivered the 2015 election victory and took 10 years to build, in the hope of replacing it with the different coalition of voters that failed to deliver May a majority in 2017. There were some reports of high voter registration by the under 35s which would not bode well for the Tories and for all the wonders of Vote Leave's social media advertising, I'm not sure if the stereotypical older, Northern working class voter who feels a bit left behind by gloablisation really spends much time on social media. On the other hand the weekend saw John McDonnell on the media promoting some fairly radical economic policies just at the time when I would have thought he would be wanting to emphasise to wavering voters that it is "safe" to vote Labour, so the "fear-of-Corbyn" factor will play into the Tories' hands.
Up until now there has been a view taken by some centrist voters that the referendum result should be respected but I wonder if the PM's latest unconstitutional antics and threats to break the law will start to change that - will he "de-legitimise" the referendum result?
Regardless of the short term outcome of the brexit crisis, I think we are definitely heading for some sort of constitutional reform. Our unwritten constitution gives a lot of powers to the monarch/PM but up until now no PM had ever gone too far in using/abusing them. Boris has changed that forever. Will it be a special constitutional convention leading to a full written constitution, or will it be a more pragmatic British mudding through with an Act of Parliament reforming the exercise of the royal prerogative powers? Anything, so long as it is not a PR system that lets Farage into the House of Commons ...
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Post by Digi on Sept 9, 2019 10:31:02 GMT
Boris Johnson looking distinctly uncomfortable as the Irish leader tells some truths he refuses to admit
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Sept 9, 2019 10:53:24 GMT
Looks like Boris is going to throw the DUP under the bus and revert to the NI-only backstop the EU originally proposed and Theresa May rejected.
Will it get through Parliament though?
Corbyn can have no principled objection to it, his opposition would be purely political, to prevent Johnston getting a victory
Remainers like the liberals would oppose
DUP will obviously oppose
SNP and some other Scottish MPs would oppose NI getting an unfair advantage over Scotland
The ERG will oppose because they oppose everything, as will Nigel Farage so Boris could still be vulnerable to brexit party at election for selling out
BUT ... Labour brexiteers will support and so will majority of Tories, including the 21 whipless rebels, so it MIGHT get through
From the EU's point of view, why give Boris any concessions now at all? - No concessions means no deal which means delay and a November election - Election could result in a Lib/Lab/SNP coalition or minority government, which would go for a softer brexit and a 2nd referendum, so win-win for the EU - Even if Boris wins, the EU still have until the new deadline of 31 January 2020 to make whatever concessions to him they are prepared to make now, so why make them early and give him a helping hand in the November election?
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Post by sherlock on Sept 9, 2019 14:59:43 GMT
The bill to block no deal got royal assent today, but in other news Bercow just threw a curveball and announced his intention to stand down as speaker on 31 October, unless there’s an early election before then.
If the opposition sticks to their word of blocking any election before 31 October, this means that the next speaker will be chosen by the current Parliament, which makes it very unlikely that the government can just vote in a candidate of their choosing.
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Post by Digi on Sept 9, 2019 18:28:41 GMT
Oh dear.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2019 9:19:29 GMT
It was quite something watching the pre-prorogation events last night. For one rather tense moment, I honestly thought John Bercow propped up by the opposition benches was going to refuse to follow Black Rod and attend The Lords, or at least be as slow as possible in doing so.
However the speaker is, as he always has been, nothing if not a Parliamentarian and as such he followed the etiquette, not before pronouncing the shameful acts of this cowardly, wicked government as "Not a normal prorogue, one of the longest for decades and it represents an act of executive fiat." Receiving three standing ovations over the course of the day - not from the Tory benches from whence he came, after all - when he announced his departure, when he left to lead the members to the Lords and when he returned to shake the hands of the members who stayed until after 2am to thank him for his dedicated service.
It won't be the same without the wonderful way he would demand "ORDEEEEER", or deem a motion to have caused "DIVISIOOOOOON" or call on "Mr Peter BOOOOOOOONE".
Harriet Harman, Pete Wishart and others will announce their candidacy to replace Bercow (following tradition as Bercow came from the Tory benches the next one should not but we do not live in traditional times) and what a baptism of fire they will find themselves in when he steps down on October 31st or with the GE whichever comes first.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Sept 10, 2019 9:51:18 GMT
Arlene Foster meeting BJ in London today.
Seems pretty clear Boris sees getting a deal as the only way out of his bind and he wants to revert to NI-only backstop, but get it watered down enough to get the DUP on board but leave it strong enough to be acceptable to Irish government. Seems a pretty tall order. I think negotiations are no longer "a sham". On the one hand Boris does have a valid point when he says the Parliamentary opposition has weakened his negotiating position, but on the other hand he would not now be seriously negotiating for a deal if the parliamentary opposition had not left him with 3 otherwise unpalatable options - delay, break the law or resign.
If push comes to shove and he has to choose between having the Irish government on board or having the DUP on board, it is a no-brainer. Irish govt has veto in EU Council so HAS to be on board, DUP themselves are expendable, I think it will come down to whether he thinks he can get a deal through Parliament in October with the DUP and some of the ERG opposed, but Labour brexiteers supporting. He will likely get more ERG and more Labour brexiteer votes than May did, but will that be enough?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2019 10:34:19 GMT
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Post by number13 on Sept 10, 2019 11:27:57 GMT
I think Leave voters in GB won't care one way or the other about how the Irish border is 'solved' as long as the British-Continental border keeps flowing smoothly and GB won't ever be in that 'backstop'.
If The Deal (with NI-only backstop) is presented to Parliament in mid-October knowing there are only days to go before perpetual extensions to A50 of uncertain length... will the die-hards will now swallow it as the lesser of two evils - Deal or effectively No Brexit ever? Will enough Labour MPs now vote for it because an election must be coming very soon and they have strongly Leave seats to defend?
If so, you didn't rule out No Deal it was that naughty Parliament, you did deliver the only Brexit then available and without the GB backstop, the No Dealers/Revokers/Remainers have no ditches left to die in and now you get your election... Too cynical? (That was of course a rhetorical question - it's not possible to be too cynical any more!)
(Personally I'd be happy with The Deal and either version of the 'backstop' but then I've been saying that for over a year and of course I started from the opposite end of all this.)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2019 11:43:58 GMT
I think Leave voters in GB won't care one way or the other about how the Irish border is 'solved' as long as the British-Continental border keeps flowing smoothly and GB won't ever be in that 'backstop'.
If The Deal (with NI-only backstop) is presented to Parliament in mid-October knowing there are only days to go before perpetual extensions to A50 of uncertain length... will the die-hards will now swallow it as the lesser of two evils - Deal or effectively No Brexit ever? Will enough Labour MPs now vote for it because an election must be coming very soon and they have strongly Leave seats to defend?
If so, you didn't rule out No Deal it was that naughty Parliament, you did deliver the only Brexit then available and without the GB backstop, the No Dealers/Revokers/Remainers have no ditches left to die in and now you get your election... Too cynical? I don't think it is too cynical - indeed I think that as it is the option most likely to allow the maximum number of MPs possible to go back to their constituents with the best excuses they can to save their own cred for re-election...it's entirely possible, if not quite probable yet. Yet I think it still costs this Government massively as they would be savaged from their own side in the form of Farage and the Brexit Party. Despite the posturing from Johnson and Cummings there really is no "good" way forward for them that's anything better than a dice-throw. Johnson will double down on this chicken/girl's blouse nonsense and Labour will need to decide whether to embrace remain in a second ref or their own best deal attempts, either one of which will cost them potential votes too. The waters just get murkier and murkier.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Sept 10, 2019 12:24:07 GMT
Will enough Labour MPs now vote for it because an election must be coming very soon and they have strongly Leave seats to defend?
Problem for those Labour MPs is that although their seats may overall be pro-Leave, the Labour voters who vote for and elect them are more pro-Remain. Will the minority of Labour voters who back Leave, the tribal Labour voters who will vote Labour regardless of brexit and any non-Labour Leave voters they can attract be enough for those Labour MPs to retain their seat? Keeping in mind that Johnston and Farage will both be targeting Leave voters and competing hard for their support and the Liberals will be going hard after the Labour and Tory Remain vote.
Personally I think the 2017 election was not really about brexit, since both main parties were in favour of brexit at that time, the difficult and unpalatable realities of brexit were still not readily apparent, and the election moved onto other issues. In effect the country was in a sort of "brexit honeymoon" from June 2016 to December 2017. The 2019 election will be different. My gut feeling is that a lot of moderates, faced with Corbyn on the one side and Johnston on the other, will plump for the Liberals who will do very well. Who actually wins is anyone's guess - I think it now hinges on whether or not Boris can do a deal, get it through Parliament and leave on 31 October.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Sept 10, 2019 18:04:17 GMT
I took three weeks off in Ireland and got, not away but some distance from this festering wound of a self-inflicted head shot to the UK, and it was very pleasant. Oh, well, back in time for the prorogation and the rest of it.
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Post by Digi on Sept 10, 2019 18:04:36 GMT
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Post by number13 on Sept 11, 2019 0:17:21 GMT
Bizarre story. So all access data for govuk services isn't currently shared/pooled/analysed across departments then? (And I've lost count of the number of times over the years I've heard talk about 'joined-up government'... )
EDIT: Re earlier posts - it seems they're not looking at a NI-only backstop.
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