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Post by nucleusofswarm on Jul 5, 2020 9:22:21 GMT
Watching too much news again. Not only 2nd wave incoming but more evidence about what the Tory party values, historically they bailed out the banks, more recently they gave the owner of a pub chain a £48 million loan & yet they have done nothing for the arts. What type of country will we be living in after the second wave? It is not the second wave. This is still the first wave.
A second wave is when all infections die down and then the infection comes back for a second year. See Spanish Flu epidemic.
What we have here, what they call a "second wave", is nothing else than a badly managed, badly suppressed first wave. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. But we ain't seen nothing yet.
Very true about distinguishing spikes from waves - confusing the two will make managing much harder. However, I should also add that the second wave is extremely relative and not a full guarantee - suppression of local flare ups, local measures, as well as treatments, will have an impact on what it looks like. Even with only a portion of the population wearing masks and having dexamethasone available, they will cut into a second wave's power, and as I've pointed out before, the treatment and research front is rapidly changing.
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Post by johnhurtdoctor on Jul 5, 2020 9:25:53 GMT
Watching too much news again. Not only 2nd wave incoming but more evidence about what the Tory party values, historically they bailed out the banks, more recently they gave the owner of a pub chain a £48 million loan & yet they have done nothing for the arts. What type of country will we be living in after the second wave? It is not the second wave. This is still the first wave.
A second wave is when all infections die down and then the infection comes back for a second year. See Spanish Flu epidemic.
What we have here, what they call a "second wave", is nothing else than a badly managed, badly suppressed first wave. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. But we ain't seen nothing yet.
I didn't say this was the 2nd wave.
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Post by tuigirl on Jul 5, 2020 9:34:12 GMT
It is not the second wave. This is still the first wave.
A second wave is when all infections die down and then the infection comes back for a second year. See Spanish Flu epidemic.
What we have here, what they call a "second wave", is nothing else than a badly managed, badly suppressed first wave. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. But we ain't seen nothing yet.
Very true about distinguishing spikes from waves - confusing the two will make managing much harder. However, I should also add that the second wave is extremely relative and not a full guarantee - suppression of local flare ups, local measures, as well as treatments, will have an impact on what it looks like. Even with only a portion of the population wearing masks and having dexamethasone available, they will cut into a second wave's power, and as I've pointed out before, the treatment and research front is rapidly changing. Sadly, at my ripe old age, I am now at a stage in life where I look both ways when entering a roundabout.
Because I have seen and met an awful lot of stupid people without any common sense. I even had a flatmate who was the nicest guy on the planet, but the worst car driver in the history of mankind. Red lights and roundabouts were absolutely mystifying to him.
Looking at the daily news, and knowing some science facts about Corona viruses and vaccine development from work... I think I can say with confidence that there will be a second wave. And the "treatments" so far are more stop-gap than anything.
The severity of this second wave depends entirely upon if all the... let us call them "less scientific inclined leaders" have died off at a spike of the first wave or not. And if there will be a change of management or not.
Sorry, I am much less optimistic.
I also did not intend this as a political commentary. I apologize if someone feels hurt because their faith in their leadership has not broken yet.
I do not even have faith in our own leadership, even of they at least try to have more common sense than others.
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Post by nucleusofswarm on Jul 5, 2020 9:44:54 GMT
Very true about distinguishing spikes from waves - confusing the two will make managing much harder. However, I should also add that the second wave is extremely relative and not a full guarantee - suppression of local flare ups, local measures, as well as treatments, will have an impact on what it looks like. Even with only a portion of the population wearing masks and having dexamethasone available, they will cut into a second wave's power, and as I've pointed out before, the treatment and research front is rapidly changing. Sadly, at my ripe old age, I am now at a stage in life where I look both ways when entering a roundabout.
Because I have seen and met an awful lot of stupid people without any common sense. I even had a flatmate who was the nicest guy on the planet, but the worst car driver in the history of mankind. Red lights and roundabouts were absolutely mystifying to him.
Looking at the daily news, and knowing some science facts about Corona viruses and vaccine development from work... I think I can say with confidence that there will be a second wave. And the "treatments" so far are more stop-gap than anything.
The severity of this second wave depends entirely upon if all the... let us call them "less scientific inclined leaders" have died off at a spike of the first wave or not. And if there will be a change of management or not.
Sorry, I am much less optimistic.
I also did not intend this as a political commentary. I apologize if someone feels hurt because their faith in their leadership has not broken yet.
I do not even have faith in our own leadership, even of they at least try to have more common sense than others.
Of course, I don't fully rule it out - some countries will be much more vulnerable to it, owing to a bunch of factors, such as bad leadership and poorly implemented measures. I'm a realist in acknowledging the dangerous reality of covid and how it has changed things. Complacency is bad and so blind faith. That said, I also think historical context is important - the Spanish Flu, while having several things in common with covid and useful for perspective, is also a different animal from it and the second wave there was as bad as it was because of, among other things, a complete misunderstanding of the disease and having nothing to combat, or even really slow it down with. They even didn't have stop gaps.
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Post by tuigirl on Jul 5, 2020 9:54:45 GMT
Sadly, at my ripe old age, I am now at a stage in life where I look both ways when entering a roundabout.
Because I have seen and met an awful lot of stupid people without any common sense. I even had a flatmate who was the nicest guy on the planet, but the worst car driver in the history of mankind. Red lights and roundabouts were absolutely mystifying to him.
Looking at the daily news, and knowing some science facts about Corona viruses and vaccine development from work... I think I can say with confidence that there will be a second wave. And the "treatments" so far are more stop-gap than anything.
The severity of this second wave depends entirely upon if all the... let us call them "less scientific inclined leaders" have died off at a spike of the first wave or not. And if there will be a change of management or not.
Sorry, I am much less optimistic.
I also did not intend this as a political commentary. I apologize if someone feels hurt because their faith in their leadership has not broken yet.
I do not even have faith in our own leadership, even of they at least try to have more common sense than others.
Of course, I don't fully rule it out - some countries will be much more vulnerable to it, owing to a bunch of factors, such as bad leadership and poorly implemented measures. I'm a realist in acknowledging the dangerous reality of covid and how it has changed things. Complacency is bad and so blind faith. That said, I also think historical context is important - the Spanish Flu, while having several things in common with covid and useful for perspective, is also a different animal from it and the second wave there was as bad as it was because of, among other things, a complete misunderstanding of the disease and having nothing to combat, or even really slow it down with. They even didn't have stop gaps. That is entirely true.
I was listening to an interview with one of the German virologists on radio yesterday and he said we only ever will be able to tell how bad this disease really was and what long-term impact it had in 10 years from now. Last week there was a link discovered between infection with corona viruses in general and dementia. So in a worst case scenario, the older people surviving the disease now could feel the impact of it in the years to come.
That is the problem. We just do not know anything yet. Which makes us only slightly wiser that the good people battling the Spanish flu.
And hindsight is always such a great thing.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2020 11:48:31 GMT
Of course, I don't fully rule it out - some countries will be much more vulnerable to it, owing to a bunch of factors, such as bad leadership and poorly implemented measures. I'm a realist in acknowledging the dangerous reality of covid and how it has changed things. Complacency is bad and so blind faith. That said, I also think historical context is important - the Spanish Flu, while having several things in common with covid and useful for perspective, is also a different animal from it and the second wave there was as bad as it was because of, among other things, a complete misunderstanding of the disease and having nothing to combat, or even really slow it down with. They even didn't have stop gaps. That is entirely true.
I was listening to an interview with one of the German virologists on radio yesterday and he said we only ever will be able to tell how bad this disease really was and what long-term impact it had in 10 years from now. Last week there was a link discovered between infection with corona viruses in general and dementia. So in a worst case scenario, the older people surviving the disease now could feel the impact of it in the years to come.
That is the problem. We just do not know anything yet. Which makes us only slightly wiser that the good people battling the Spanish flu.
And hindsight is always such a great thing.
Looking at pictures in the UK media of people flocking to the pubs now they have reopened ... words fail me. The risks people are taking to get bladdered! Who needs Daleks or Cybermen? This level of grinning stupidity is enough to cause real problems.
All I can say is that, there have been several reports of gatherings on newly opened beaches and during widespread protests over the last couple of months, and as yet there hasn't been a massive rise in deaths or infections. Keeping this relevant to the thread, regarding 'our health', all we can do is keep ourselves, and those close to us, as safe as possible.
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Post by nucleusofswarm on Jul 5, 2020 14:33:38 GMT
All I can say is that, there have been several reports of gatherings on newly opened beaches and during widespread protests over the last couple of months, and as yet there hasn't been a massive rise in deaths or infections. Keeping this relevant to the thread, regarding 'our health', all we can do is keep ourselves, and those close to us, as safe as possible. This is the curious detail: all of the new outbreak clusters were in confined, indoor spaces (clubs, slaughterhouses, factories and meat/veg markets with, likely, inconsistent sanitation standards), and nothing yet seems to link back to beaches, parks, outdoor parties or even the protests, despite the gatherings often being much, much larger and much messier. Whether it's because of open air circulation, wider spaces or by some ridiculous miracle, none of the people present at any of these having been infected prior. At least the protests had masks - it doesn't explain why parks or beaches didn't become hotspots.
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Post by johnhurtdoctor on Jul 5, 2020 14:52:00 GMT
All I can say is that, there have been several reports of gatherings on newly opened beaches and during widespread protests over the last couple of months, and as yet there hasn't been a massive rise in deaths or infections. Keeping this relevant to the thread, regarding 'our health', all we can do is keep ourselves, and those close to us, as safe as possible. This is the curious detail: all of the new outbreak clusters were in confined, indoor spaces (clubs, slaughterhouses, factories and meat/veg markets with, likely, inconsistent sanitation standards), and nothing yet seems to link back to beaches, parks, outdoor parties or even the protests, despite the gatherings often being much, much larger and much messier. Whether it's because of open air circulation, wider spaces or by some ridiculous miracle, none of the people present at any of these having been infected prior. At least the protests had masks - it doesn't explain why parks or beaches didn't become hotspots. Yes it is curious, but then again the official data only includes ‘pillar 1’ .
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Post by tuigirl on Jul 5, 2020 18:59:05 GMT
All I can say is that, there have been several reports of gatherings on newly opened beaches and during widespread protests over the last couple of months, and as yet there hasn't been a massive rise in deaths or infections. Keeping this relevant to the thread, regarding 'our health', all we can do is keep ourselves, and those close to us, as safe as possible. This is the curious detail: all of the new outbreak clusters were in confined, indoor spaces (clubs, slaughterhouses, factories and meat/veg markets with, likely, inconsistent sanitation standards), and nothing yet seems to link back to beaches, parks, outdoor parties or even the protests, despite the gatherings often being much, much larger and much messier. Whether it's because of open air circulation, wider spaces or by some ridiculous miracle, none of the people present at any of these having been infected prior. At least the protests had masks - it doesn't explain why parks or beaches didn't become hotspots. Well, the virus does appear to be very vulnerable to heat and UV light so that might partially explain this.
Plus the thinning out effect by the better ventilation outside. The virus gets diluted fast enough before it can built up like it can do in confined spaces.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2020 21:52:47 GMT
This is the curious detail: all of the new outbreak clusters were in confined, indoor spaces (clubs, slaughterhouses, factories and meat/veg markets with, likely, inconsistent sanitation standards), and nothing yet seems to link back to beaches, parks, outdoor parties or even the protests, despite the gatherings often being much, much larger and much messier. Whether it's because of open air circulation, wider spaces or by some ridiculous miracle, none of the people present at any of these having been infected prior. At least the protests had masks - it doesn't explain why parks or beaches didn't become hotspots. Well, the virus does appear to be very vulnerable to heat and UV light so that might partially explain this.
Plus the thinning out effect by the better ventilation outside. The virus gets diluted fast enough before it can built up like it can do in confined spaces.
I suppose it proves once again how much we are still learning about the virus (I say 'we' to include everyone). It would be great to think it is slowly dying out, but who can possibly say? Even so, scenes like the ones outside the newly opened pubs are never less than stupefying.
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Post by nucleusofswarm on Jul 6, 2020 1:25:48 GMT
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Post by elkawho on Jul 6, 2020 3:37:23 GMT
Thanks for your bright spot updates and your overall positive attitude. You've been a bright spot in tough times.
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Post by barnabaslives on Jul 8, 2020 0:17:58 GMT
I still do not know what is the best perspective to have on the Covid situation (I know that there is a very alarming reality out there, although I'm prone to suspicions that somehow it has both been underestimated and overestimated at the very same time) but nonetheless I would like to offer thanks and a salute to those who have made the effort to help contain Covid through the sacrifices they have made and the precautions that they have taken.
I wish that could be said of everyone, but for those to whom it applies, it is inspiring to see and truly speaks of the best in humanity. Thank you for helping to look out for the rest of us.
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Post by aussiedoctorwhofan on Jul 8, 2020 0:22:17 GMT
I still do not know what is the best perspective to have on the Covid situation (I know that there is a very alarming reality out there, although I'm prone to suspicions that somehow it has both been underestimated and overestimated at the very same time) but nonetheless I would like to offer thanks and a salute to those who have made the effort to help contain Covid through the sacrifices they have made and the precautions that they have taken. I wish that could be said of everyone, but for those to whom it applies, it is inspiring to see and truly speaks of the best in humanity. Thank you for helping to look out for the rest of us. You are welcome (in all seriousness). I can only say we are lucky here in Oz, mostly everyone is taking this seriously unlike some other countries- which is unfortunate. I may have been involved in a large group meeting with a member of Parliament the other day, I heard some things moving forward which may or not be good.
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Post by nucleusofswarm on Jul 12, 2020 0:29:37 GMT
As the US passes a terrible milestone, and anxieties grow, I think some balance is due: Global recovery rate is over 7 and a half million, 13 times greater than the death rate. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/Antibody therapies are something that could be available sooner than a vaccine, and have been a big focal point for science. US' Regeneron has REGN-COV2, an 'antibody cocktail' entering Phase 3 trials (meaning it's proved safe and is showing positive results thus far) that could not only treat the disease, but stop it by clogging up the virus' spikes, which is how it infects cells: www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/regeneron-covid-prevention-trial/www.livescience.com/antibody-cocktail-for-covid19-trial.htmlMasks have also been a major sticking point, especially with efficiency and efficacy at catching the virus' tiny particles. Well, researchers at MIT and Brigham and Women's Hospital in Massachusetts have designed a new face mask that can be sterilized for multiple uses, and catch the particles as well as the much-touted N95 masks. They are now seeking to establish a production company: www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/miot-eda070920.phpnews.mit.edu/2020/reusable-silicone-rubber-face-mask-0709
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Post by doctorkernow on Jul 14, 2020 16:50:02 GMT
Hello again.
What mystifies me, besides the roundabout system in High Wycombe where you used to be able to go both ways round the roundabout, is the people who still maintain that coronavirus is a myth and no worse than any other flu related illnesses normally present. This is no flu. The range of conditions and effects on a whole range of bodily functions including eyesight, brain function, hearing, movement and others surely tells us this is a virus we need use effective strategies against to prevent infection.
I heard Michael Rosen, British poet and former Children's Laureate tell of his continuing health problems following a nearly fatal battle with the virus. The stupid Tory MPs protesting about mandatory masks in shops is another example, although I'm not sure why shopworkers are excluded. If you have to visit the doctor's surgery or dentist you are usually required to wear a mask and so is the doctor/dentist.
I find the human reaction to this crisis in some quarters absolutely mind-blowingly ridiculous and dangerous.
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Post by pazzer on Jul 14, 2020 18:19:47 GMT
After all the back and forth on making masks compulsory in shops now that are going to be from next Friday #nomasks is trending on Twitter. Meant to go hospital for scan Tuesday but worried about getting there and back. As people still not taking this pandemic seriously.
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Post by doctorkernow on Jul 14, 2020 18:51:28 GMT
Hello again. I know Pazzer. I really hope all goes ok for you.
"#nomasks" seriously? What will it take for such people to realise just how serious this is.
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Post by nucleusofswarm on Jul 20, 2020 20:46:12 GMT
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Post by pazzer on Jul 21, 2020 23:48:12 GMT
Most people were wearing masks at hospital. Though was on verge of panic attack during scan. Guessing due to having to wear mask while doing the breath in, breath out, hold breath. At least taxi had sign saying to sit in back and driver was wearing a mask.
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