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Post by timleschild on Jun 18, 2024 18:24:31 GMT
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Post by number13 on Jun 18, 2024 21:29:24 GMT
I'm not going to post 'told you so' until the results come in the exit poll appears at 10pm, but... ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
(We don't really need all that careful vote-counting and actual results any more, the exit poll would do fine to fill the next HOC. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) It's so accurate now right down to seat level, we can all get an early night. Unlike 1992!)
EDIT: On the other hand, having looked at this poll and the seats I mentioned in an earlier post - and a few more near to them - well, maybe in other places, would be my opinion. There are seats I know New Labour took and held easily, showing as 'Toss Up' in a national projected Tory meltdown. And some frankly odd projected results with the Lib Dems practically nowhere. In seats where I imagine it's news to many voters that the Liberals aren't still the 'left' option as they have been 'since we all voted for good old Mr. Gladstone.' ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif)
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Post by timleschild on Jun 18, 2024 22:40:22 GMT
I'm not going to post 'told you so' until the results come in the exit poll appears at 10pm, but... ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
(We don't really need all that careful vote-counting and actual results any more, the exit poll would do fine to fill the next HOC. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) It's so accurate now right down to seat level, we can all get an early night. Unlike 1992!)
EDIT: On the other hand, having looked at this poll and the seats I mentioned in an earlier post - and a few more near to them - well, maybe in other places, would be my opinion. There are seats I know New Labour took and held easily, showing as 'Toss Up' in a national projected Tory meltdown. And some frankly odd projected results with the Lib Dems practically nowhere. In seats where I imagine it's news to many voters that the Liberals aren't still the 'left' option as they have been 'since we all voted for good old Mr. Gladstone.' ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) We all voted for Gladstone? He was 19th century
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Post by number13 on Jun 19, 2024 10:01:27 GMT
I'm not going to post 'told you so' until the results come in the exit poll appears at 10pm, but... ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
(We don't really need all that careful vote-counting and actual results any more, the exit poll would do fine to fill the next HOC. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) It's so accurate now right down to seat level, we can all get an early night. Unlike 1992!)
EDIT: On the other hand, having looked at this poll and the seats I mentioned in an earlier post - and a few more near to them - well, maybe in other places, would be my opinion. There are seats I know New Labour took and held easily, showing as 'Toss Up' in a national projected Tory meltdown. And some frankly odd projected results with the Lib Dems practically nowhere. In seats where I imagine it's news to many voters that the Liberals aren't still the 'left' option as they have been 'since we all voted for good old Mr. Gladstone.' ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) We all voted for Gladstone? He was 19th century Oh dear. Notice the ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) ? Nothing spoils a (n attempted) joke like explaining it, they say. But in the interests of understanding...
My joke was, there are places in the UK where they may not even have noticed the formation of the Labour party, which was after all only in the early 20thC and the Liberals (note my deliberate use of the pre-merger with the SDP name?) are still seen as the 'left' option. Ha ha.
My point was, in those areas almost nobody votes Labour and never ever has. If you don't want a Tory, you vote for a Whig and since you can't find one of those any more, you vote for a Liberal. OK, for one of these new-fangled Lib Dems. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) But not Labour, because in those places people don't. Yet some of these seat projection MRP polls are showing Labour coming from a very distant third to potentially win seats which are normally Conservative and which I could well imagine, right now, the Lib Dems might finally win as being the local alternative since forever (i.e. since Gladstone at least and probably earlier.). But not Labour, who have no history there at all. So in those seats I doubt the poll projection. So, what about all the many other seats I don't know anything about?
Part of me thinks you realised this perfectly well and were having me on. And part of me thinks otherwise, so I explained anyway, just in case. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
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Post by timleschild on Jun 19, 2024 13:09:51 GMT
We all voted for Gladstone? He was 19th century Oh dear. Notice the ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) ? Nothing spoils a (n attempted) joke like explaining it, they say. But in the interests of understanding...
My joke was, there are places in the UK where they may not even have noticed the formation of the Labour party, which was after all only in the early 20thC and the Liberals (note my deliberate use of the pre-merger with the SDP name?) are still seen as the 'left' option. Ha ha.
My point was, in those areas almost nobody votes Labour and never ever has. If you don't want a Tory, you vote for a Whig and since you can't find one of those any more, you vote for a Liberal. OK, for one of these new-fangled Lib Dems. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) But not Labour, because in those places people don't. Yet some of these seat projection MRP polls are showing Labour coming from a very distant third to potentially win seats which are normally Conservative and which I could well imagine, right now, the Lib Dems might finally win as being the local alternative since forever (i.e. since Gladstone at least and probably earlier.). But not Labour, who have no history there at all. So in those seats I doubt the poll projection. So, what about all the many other seats I don't know anything about?
Part of me thinks you realised this perfectly well and were having me on. And part of me thinks otherwise, so I explained anyway, just in case. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif) Great joke. Lib Dems are a dead party, traitors.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Jun 19, 2024 20:16:13 GMT
This country needs voting reform. It really needs to use PR-STV. The FPTP system is so very broken.
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Post by number13 on Jun 19, 2024 21:09:44 GMT
Oh dear. Notice the ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) ? Nothing spoils a (n attempted) joke like explaining it, they say. But in the interests of understanding...
My joke was, there are places in the UK where they may not even have noticed the formation of the Labour party, which was after all only in the early 20thC and the Liberals (note my deliberate use of the pre-merger with the SDP name?) are still seen as the 'left' option. Ha ha.
My point was, in those areas almost nobody votes Labour and never ever has. If you don't want a Tory, you vote for a Whig and since you can't find one of those any more, you vote for a Liberal. OK, for one of these new-fangled Lib Dems. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/ZBDvOFPmQgNwxFXLpuoD.gif) But not Labour, because in those places people don't. Yet some of these seat projection MRP polls are showing Labour coming from a very distant third to potentially win seats which are normally Conservative and which I could well imagine, right now, the Lib Dems might finally win as being the local alternative since forever (i.e. since Gladstone at least and probably earlier.). But not Labour, who have no history there at all. So in those seats I doubt the poll projection. So, what about all the many other seats I don't know anything about?
Part of me thinks you realised this perfectly well and were having me on. And part of me thinks otherwise, so I explained anyway, just in case. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif) Great joke. Lib Dems are a dead party, traitors. Thank you. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
One poll tonight suggests they might be close to becoming the official opposition on July 5th...
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Post by number13 on Jun 19, 2024 21:20:27 GMT
This country needs voting reform. It really needs to use PR-STV. The FPTP system is so very broken. I'm that rare thing, a Conservative voter who supports PR or at least a more PR-ish system. Although not STV specifically. I prefer one of the single vote systems where you still vote for one specific candidate, but seats are large and multi-member so the top 2 or 3 (say) candidates get returned as MPs for that seat. The larger parties would get broad national coverage of MPs returned, parties local to & popular in one area would get MPs returned from that area even though their national share of the vote might be very small.
We actually used to have that in some parts of the UK. It gives smaller parties a foot in the door but avoids the fragmented assemblies seen in some countries with 'pure' PR. And the counting is quick and obvious.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Jun 19, 2024 22:20:47 GMT
This country needs voting reform. It really needs to use PR-STV. The FPTP system is so very broken. I'm that rare thing, a Conservative voter who supports PR or at least a more PR-ish system. Although not STV specifically. I prefer one of the single vote systems where you still vote for one specific candidate, but seats are large and multi-member so the top 2 or 3 (say) candidates get returned as MPs for that seat. The larger parties would get broad national coverage of MPs returned, parties local to & popular in one area would get MPs returned from that area even though their national share of the vote might be very small.
We actually used to have that in some parts of the UK. It gives smaller parties a foot in the door but avoids the fragmented assemblies seen in some countries with 'pure' PR. And the counting is quick and obvious.
Well, growing up in Ireland which uses PR-STV, there hasn't been an overall majority government since the mid 70s! Yes, coalitions (and sometimes minority governments) have issues governing, but mostly things devolve into "tedious debates" about Acts and White Papers, because with things being so close then they actually matter. Hilariously there were comments around the time of the AV Referendum that PR-STV was too complicated for the UK and somehow anti democratic, despite the fact that the very system Ireland uses was designed by Westminster in 1919(!) and has been used ever since!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 22:21:46 GMT
Great joke. Lib Dems are a dead party, traitors. Thank you. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
One poll tonight suggests they might be close to becoming the official opposition on July 5th...
Savata's estimate doesn't go that far but estimates that the Tories will get well less than half of what Labour did in 2019 - and that was considered a disaster for Labour. They also predict some of the big hitters who could have the Portillo moment. Insane to think the Tories could have just a couple of dozen more than the SNP did in 2015. savanta.com/knowledge-centre/view/savantas-first-mrp-of-election-campaign-predicts-labour-on-for-majority-of-382/
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Post by number13 on Jun 19, 2024 22:42:17 GMT
I'm that rare thing, a Conservative voter who supports PR or at least a more PR-ish system. Although not STV specifically. I prefer one of the single vote systems where you still vote for one specific candidate, but seats are large and multi-member so the top 2 or 3 (say) candidates get returned as MPs for that seat. The larger parties would get broad national coverage of MPs returned, parties local to & popular in one area would get MPs returned from that area even though their national share of the vote might be very small.
We actually used to have that in some parts of the UK. It gives smaller parties a foot in the door but avoids the fragmented assemblies seen in some countries with 'pure' PR. And the counting is quick and obvious.
Well, growing up in Ireland which uses PR-STV, there hasn't been an overall majority government since the mid 70s! Yes, coalitions (and sometimes minority governments) have issues governing, but mostly things devolve into "tedious debates" about Acts and White Papers, because with things being so close then they actually matter. Hilariously there were comments around the time of the AV Referendum that PR-STV was too complicated for the UK and somehow anti democratic, despite the fact that the very system Ireland uses was designed by Westminster in 1919(!) and has been used ever since! I wasn't thinking of Ireland, yes from over here your system seems to work well. And our one recent coalition 2010-2015 was good imo, in fact I wish it had continued. I was thinking of countries with absolute PR across the national vote share, which can end up with a stack of parties having about 5 MPs each (or less) and then have to make a government from the result. Often including people you really wouldn't want to include, just to make up the numbers!
That's a great anecdote about the AV referendum. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif) I voted against AV because when one party is especially unpopular (like Labour 1983 or the Conservatives 1997) it would probably be less proportional for them than FPTP!
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Jun 19, 2024 22:50:12 GMT
Well, growing up in Ireland which uses PR-STV, there hasn't been an overall majority government since the mid 70s! Yes, coalitions (and sometimes minority governments) have issues governing, but mostly things devolve into "tedious debates" about Acts and White Papers, because with things being so close then they actually matter. Hilariously there were comments around the time of the AV Referendum that PR-STV was too complicated for the UK and somehow anti democratic, despite the fact that the very system Ireland uses was designed by Westminster in 1919(!) and has been used ever since! I wasn't thinking of Ireland, yes from over here your system seems to work well. And our one recent coalition 2010-2015 was good imo, in fact I wish it had continued. I was thinking of countries with absolute PR across the national vote share, which can end up with a stack of parties having about 5 MPs each (or less) and then have to make a government from the result. Often including people you really wouldn't want to include, just to make up the numbers!
That's a great anecdote about the AV referendum. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif) I voted against AV because when one party is especially unpopular (like Labour 1983 or the Conservatives 1997) it would probably be less proportional for them than FPTP! Despite being a proponent of PR-STV, I think I also voted against in the AV referendum, but mainly because the half arsed compromise AV proposed was not nearly as robust as actual PR-STV and would IMO have just made things, if not worse, then at least stupidly bureaucratic. So I'm all for PR-STV. It works. The UK's closest neighbour has used it for over a century without issue; it was DESIGNED by the Westminster government in 1919 for Ireland, and a variant is used for the NI Assembly. So..yeah.
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Post by number13 on Jun 19, 2024 22:53:08 GMT
The MRP polls are all over the place this time, in both senses! I don't ever remember so many of them, or so varied in their projections.
I've posted a few comments about them upthread and one such poll tonight made my eyes pop! It forecast that those rock-solid Conservative seats I mentioned would ALL go to Labour. Despite the fact that the Lib Dems have always been the challenger in most of them; they're that sort of seats. Even if Reform took lots of the Tory vote, I still don't see where Labour would be getting those extra votes to leap-frog into first place. I mean, their polling is very good this time, but not more than 1997 levels.
So I'm baffled! But I must say, it's fascinating. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
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Post by timleschild on Jun 20, 2024 10:04:26 GMT
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lidar2
Castellan
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You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Jun 20, 2024 11:43:35 GMT
This country needs voting reform. It really needs to use PR-STV. The FPTP system is so very broken. I'm that rare thing, a Conservative voter who supports PR or at least a more PR-ish system. Although not STV specifically. I prefer one of the single vote systems where you still vote for one specific candidate, but seats are large and multi-member so the top 2 or 3 (say) candidates get returned as MPs for that seat. The larger parties would get broad national coverage of MPs returned, parties local to & popular in one area would get MPs returned from that area even though their national share of the vote might be very small.
We actually used to have that in some parts of the UK. It gives smaller parties a foot in the door but avoids the fragmented assemblies seen in some countries with 'pure' PR. And the counting is quick and obvious.
The main argument against PR is very simple and can be summed up in 2 words - Nigel Farage
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Post by number13 on Jun 20, 2024 12:19:36 GMT
I'm that rare thing, a Conservative voter who supports PR or at least a more PR-ish system. Although not STV specifically. I prefer one of the single vote systems where you still vote for one specific candidate, but seats are large and multi-member so the top 2 or 3 (say) candidates get returned as MPs for that seat. The larger parties would get broad national coverage of MPs returned, parties local to & popular in one area would get MPs returned from that area even though their national share of the vote might be very small.
We actually used to have that in some parts of the UK. It gives smaller parties a foot in the door but avoids the fragmented assemblies seen in some countries with 'pure' PR. And the counting is quick and obvious.
The main argument against PR is very simple and can be summed up in 2 words - Nigel Farage And I'd just eaten.
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Post by number13 on Jun 20, 2024 12:24:20 GMT
And we were having such an entertainingly non-partisan thread. So, just a reminder of what someone said upthread about the last time 'the other lot' won... 1997 all over again, in other words Not quite. 1997 Labour were better than this lot, apart from the future war criminal of course.
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Post by timleschild on Jun 20, 2024 13:12:43 GMT
And we were having such an entertainingly non-partisan thread. So, just a reminder of what someone said upthread about the last time 'the other lot' won... Not quite. 1997 Labour were better than this lot, apart from the future war criminal of course. so what?
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Post by mark687 on Jun 20, 2024 13:24:37 GMT
And we were having such an entertainingly non-partisan thread. So, just a reminder of what someone said upthread about the last time 'the other lot' won... so what? I think the implication that's been taken from your Posts is that you want ideal policy's/politicians (and while that's the thing to strive for), we'll never get it, so there. Regards mark687
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Post by timleschild on Jun 20, 2024 13:28:13 GMT
I think the implication that's been taken from your Posts is that you want ideal policy's/politicians (and while that's the thing to strive for), we'll never get it, so there. Regards mark687 Well people are taking the wrong implication from my posts, "so there".
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