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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 14:51:06 GMT
Post by Audio Watchdog on Jan 15, 2017 14:51:06 GMT
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Post by jasonward on Jan 15, 2017 15:13:06 GMT
For me the biggest issue with Hard Brexit, is a largely hidden one from the general public, and that is the City and the banks. The Banks enjoy many privileges by being in the EU, the UK offers a regulatory environment the banks like, but EU market access is what they need to do business. The banks are as hard nosed businesses as you could ever wish to find, they will follow the money, they have no loyalty and couldn't care less about the future of the UK except in so much as what money making opportunities it presents. The amount of money the banks earn for the UK is huge by any measure, and the vast proportion of that is not just under threat by Hard Brexit, there is no threat, it will leave, end of. The shock this will cause to London and the South East, the engine at the heart of the UK economy will be huge. But people will not see the things as connected, the impact will start when and/if Hard Brexit becomes the clear direction, but it won't bite hard for probably 5 years after Brexit has happened, moving 10's of thousands, or more jobs into new countries takes time. The impact will not just be felt in the balance of payments, it will be felt in the housing market, on the High Street, the tax take and the commercial lettings market as acre upon acre of office space becomes empty.
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 15:19:42 GMT
Post by aztec on Jan 15, 2017 15:19:42 GMT
Eh? She's expecting unity when barely half the people who bothered to vote in the referendum (and only two out of four countries) lead to this result, recent polls have indicated that a majority of people would prefer to retain access to the single market, her own party and vast swathes of the opposition are deeply divided on which course to take, a hard brexit could tank the economy and she's a prime minister not elected by the general public.
I certainly don't feel particularly keen to support her, and as far as I can see The United Kingdom has never been more divided politically.
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 15:28:52 GMT
Post by aztec on Jan 15, 2017 15:28:52 GMT
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 15:31:55 GMT
Post by aztec on Jan 15, 2017 15:31:55 GMT
The real question we are all wondering is how a hard brexit could effect Big Finish...
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Post by jasonward on Jan 15, 2017 15:37:16 GMT
Eh? She's expecting unity when barely half the people who bothered to vote in the referendum (and only two out of four countries) lead to this result, recent polls have indicated that a majority of people would prefer to retain access to the single market, her own party and vast swathes of the opposition are deeply divided on which course to take, a hard brexit could tank the economy and she's a prime minister not elected by the general public. I certainly don't feel particularly keen to support her, and as far as I can see The United Kingdom has never been more divided politically. If the email the Conservative Party sent to its supporters is any guide, Theresa May will adopt a strident stance and demand and end to the bickering. When I read this, I was left wondering about leadership, now Theresa's speech may provide that, she may give us a clarion call that the nation can rally around, but Theresa is no visionary, she is an administrator by instinct, I suspect, indeed expect her call for unity will not fall on deaf ears, it will fall on incredulous ears and largely provoke destain, and not the unity she seeks.
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Post by mark687 on Jan 15, 2017 15:39:01 GMT
The real bite won't come till 2019 when someone'll have to plug the funding gaps left by European subsidies.
Regards
mark687
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 15:40:53 GMT
Post by aztec on Jan 15, 2017 15:40:53 GMT
Eh? She's expecting unity when barely half the people who bothered to vote in the referendum (and only two out of four countries) lead to this result, recent polls have indicated that a majority of people would prefer to retain access to the single market, her own party and vast swathes of the opposition are deeply divided on which course to take, a hard brexit could tank the economy and she's a prime minister not elected by the general public. I certainly don't feel particularly keen to support her, and as far as I can see The United Kingdom has never been more divided politically. If the email the Conservative Party sent to its supporters is any guide, Theresa May will adopt a strident stance and demand and end to the bickering. When I read this, I was left wondering about leadership, now Theresa's speech may provide that, she may give us a clarion call that the nation can rally around, but Theresa is no visionary, she is an administrator by instinct, I suspect, indeed expect her call for unity will not fall on deaf ears, it will fall on incredulous ears and largely provoke destain, and not the unity she seeks. Well, I'm a Liberal Democrat voter so you'll forgive me if I'm not particularly inclined to rally behind the Tories... May was a remain voter herself and wasn't elected by the general public, I've excepted we are leaving but frankly the passing of time has only made me angrier with how things are being handled.
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Post by aztec on Jan 15, 2017 15:42:26 GMT
The real bite won't come till 2019 when someone'll have to plug the funding gaps left by European subsidies. Regards mark687 There goes the extra £350 million a week 'promised' for the NHS....
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 15:49:46 GMT
Post by mark687 on Jan 15, 2017 15:49:46 GMT
The real question we are all wondering is how a hard brexit could effect Big Finish... In Theory overseas shipping costs will rise so the majority of the overseas customers could which to DLs. wherever that reduce BFs overall income significantly I couldn't say.
Regards
mark687
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Post by mark687 on Jan 15, 2017 15:51:35 GMT
The real bite won't come till 2019 when someone'll have to plug the funding gaps left by European subsidies. Regards mark687 There goes the extra £350 million a week 'promised' for the NHS.... A good chunk of it certainly
(If it ever existed in the 1st place)
Regards
mark687
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Post by jasonward on Jan 15, 2017 15:58:34 GMT
There goes the extra £350 million a week 'promised' for the NHS.... A good chunk of it certainly
Regards
mark687
hah, it never existed, well not as an easy chunk of money that could be directed at the NHS and certainly not a number anywhere near as large as £350 per week. It was a lie, a big fat lie.
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 16:03:11 GMT
Post by mark687 on Jan 15, 2017 16:03:11 GMT
A good chunk of it certainly
Regards
mark687
hah, it never existed, well not as an easy chunk of money that could be directed at the NHS and certainly not a number anywhere near as large as £350 per week. It was a lie, a big fat lie. I think that's why air quotes were used Jason I'll edit my post.
Regards
mark687
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Post by Audio Watchdog on Jan 15, 2017 16:15:51 GMT
Whenever Trump would trot out Nigel Farage at rallies over here I could never help thinking that there were two of the biggest con men in the world on the same stage preaching the same line of bs to a scarily receptive audience.
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 16:29:18 GMT
Post by aztec on Jan 15, 2017 16:29:18 GMT
Whenever Trump would trot out Nigel Farage at rallies over here I could never help thinking that there were two of the biggest con men in the world on the same stage preaching the same line of bs to a scarily receptive audience. Farage acts like it's entirely down to him that we've had the referendum (which may well be true to a certain extent) and UKIP's rising in popularity, yet he's failed repeatedly to get elected as MP, the leadership of UKIP imploded after he resigned (for the second time) and he seemed quite content to disapear ASAP as soon as we voted to leave, Trump is going to be under much more scrutiny...
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Post by Audio Watchdog on Jan 15, 2017 16:33:32 GMT
The other thing about the two of them is I don't think either of them ever expected to win. And yes Trump will be under lots more scrutiny and will continue to handle it as poorly as we expect him to.
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Brexit
Jan 15, 2017 16:34:36 GMT
Post by aztec on Jan 15, 2017 16:34:36 GMT
A good chunk of it certainly
Regards
mark687
hah, it never existed, well not as an easy chunk of money that could be directed at the NHS and certainly not a number anywhere near as large as £350 per week. It was a lie, a big fat lie. Obviously it was never going to happen hence the air quotes. Technically the official leave campaign never directly promised it, Farage and the Bus were a separate thing I think and it was only ever a suggestion so they didn't lie per se they just bent the truth 360 degrees and didn't admit it was false... Ironically in the event of a Hard Brexit and a Conservative Party given free rein for the next Six years the NHS could very well end up being £350 million worse off...
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Brexit
Jan 18, 2017 15:24:29 GMT
Post by jasonward on Jan 18, 2017 15:24:29 GMT
Been looking some more into investment banks and what they are likely to do post Brexit.
It would appear that around 20% of the investment bank jobs "need" to inside the common market, in total that would be around 20,000 of the 100,000 jobs currently in the UK that will have to leave.
Some banks have said, they won't be moving any more as there is no need, but that seems to me to be a rose tinted view, as once you've moved 20% of your work force to a location that offers cheaper staff costs, cheaper real estate, why when other things come up, wouldn't you also choose to move more staff?
Other banks have said that will move far more staff than the minimum needed, mostly because they want to keep their core activities and staff in one location and one regulatory environment.
So, I would conservatively estimate that around 30,000 jobs will be lost in The City in next 5 years. But it's much worse than that, most of these jobs, if not all, will be being paid well above the UK average wage, so the knock on loss to the economy will be greater than would normally be expected. Without even taking into account the job losses in companies that clean and service the office space currently occupied by these 30,000 jobs, there is the retailers and all the companies and people offering services to these employees.
According to The Metro in 2015 the average UK wage was £27,531 but the average wage in The City was £48,203.
30,000 city jobs moving to Europe means a loss to the British economy (from wages alone) of just shy of £1.5bn, and as I keep trying to make clear, that's just the easily counted obvious losses to the economy.
That's around 0.1% of our GDP. And again that's without taking into account the loss of UK earnings (since business will be transacted elsewhere), the compounding effect it will have on other industries that support and supply the banking sector, or the impact it will have on the housing sector or the loss in tax take.
Now even a 0.2% loss in GDP is not insurmountable, in fact if everything else good, it would hardly really matter, but this is a loss that is going to be concentrated into a specific location, so if lets say it is an overall loss of 0.2% to the UK economy, it represents around 1% of the London "GDP" and I'm guessing around 5% of The City "GDP".
Personally I'm left wondering if some of these numbers are on the small side, I've worked over the years for Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Credit Suisse and other, and am left recalling how many thousands of people worked there, but were not directly employed by the banks, but who in truth did nothing but work for the banks, these people will not see a slice of their work vanish, they will not see their incomes drop 0.1% or even 2%, these people will loose their jobs, all their job. When I worked at Citibank, I was a contractor, and I worked in a department (where we did work exclusively for Citibank and directly at Citibanks behest and control) where I believe the staff to contractor ratio was 1 to 20, (1 staff per 20 contractors) now that was a high ratio, but it would not surprise me at all that if overall the ratio was perhaps 1 to 0.5 or 1 to 1, which would turn 30,000 job losses into 45,000 to 60,000 and then you turn those numbers into the %'s mentioned earlier, some start to look not so small at all.
EDIT: Just been watching "Brit Cops: Law and Order" a fly on the wall documentary show following police around whilst they do their job, the episode concentrated on City of London Police* and made the claim that the average salary in The City is £80,000, which if true would increase the impact yet still again.
* For those that don't know The City of London is a very strange local government, shrouded in secrecy, having their own bizarre election laws and has a very bizarre electorate (mostly businesses not people) has some powers you would normally expect a sovereign government to have, has the power, indeed the absolute right to exclude the head of state/monarch from any area it controls and has it own Police force.
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Brexit
Feb 10, 2017 7:43:47 GMT
Post by doctorkernow on Feb 10, 2017 7:43:47 GMT
Hello again. Those who interested in Brexit and its implications for the UK need to watch a programme which gives a fascinating insight into what is happening in our European neighbours.
There are political battles going on throughout Europe that could have huge implications for all Europeans and yes that does include us. The programme is presented by BBC correspondent, Katya Adler and is called After Brexit:The Battle for Europe.
My favourite moment her bewilderment at the eccentricity of the Europeans Parliament building. Her interviewee is to be found on floor 5 and a half. I kiddeth ye not.
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
Likes: 2,849
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Brexit
Feb 10, 2017 16:39:59 GMT
Post by aztec on Feb 10, 2017 16:39:59 GMT
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