Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2017 15:24:35 GMT
I can't believe every Member Country in the EU will go "That's ok we don't want any kind of Trade / Security relationship with the UK from March 2019".
Regards
mark687
Yeah, it does seem that a deal is in everyone's interests, and this proposal may well go a long way to closing the gap between the sides, but I can still see there being no agreement, not because that's what anyone wants, but because they just can't agree. I liken it to a marriage divorce, it would be in everyone interest if the divorce was agreed amicably, but often despite that, no agreement can be reached and a court imposes and outcome, only in the case of the UK and EU, there is no court to impose. Let's hope something comes of this then. I find myself bludgeoned by so much information from various sources - with each source claiming the other is biased in some way over a Brexit/Remain standpoint. UK politics has never been something that appears to run smoothly (I can't think of one ex-Primie Minister who has ever been thought of favourably after they've left office), but I've never seen 'chaos' like this. It's quite fascinating, or would be if the outcome didn't effect us so greatly. Cheers for the replies  |
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Post by jasonward on Sept 22, 2017 17:10:55 GMT
I have one question about the May proposal. How is it fundamentally different from what Labour has recently been advocating for? I may well have misunderstood something, but isn't this the transition period that many have talked about and which Labour adopted as policy some months back?
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Post by sherlock on Sept 22, 2017 17:40:46 GMT
I have one question about the May proposal. How is it fundamentally different from what Labour has recently been advocating for? I may well have misunderstood something, but isn't this the transition period that many have talked about and which Labour adopted as policy some months back? Labour's policies have been varied on Brexit but fundamentally they and the Tories are basically the same, going into the election I couldn't tell any difference between their Brexit policies except the Tories sticking by the 'no deal better than a bad deal' mantra. This transition period is interesting, given that it presumably means extending freedom of movement for two years (May was explicit this period continues all current EU rules, which presumably includes those regarding migration). What is annoying is there's still no indication what exactly the UK's meant to be transitioning to, May made some vague comment about something between the Norway and Sweden models and asked for creativity, which is helpful. |
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Post by Audio Watchdog on Sept 23, 2017 18:56:49 GMT
So listening to May's speech yesterday(?) and was it me or did the opening sound a lot like a "Remain" speech we might of heard pre-Brexit?
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Post by anothermanicmondas on Sept 23, 2017 20:47:25 GMT
What happens if the EU doesn't accept this, do we think? Is that where a 'no deal' becomes reality? I can't believe every Member Country in the EU will go "That's ok we don't want any kind of Trade / Security relationship with the UK from March 2019".
Regards
mark687
the problem is - what if some of them do so? |
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Post by jasonward on Sept 23, 2017 21:03:59 GMT
I can't believe every Member Country in the EU will go "That's ok we don't want any kind of Trade / Security relationship with the UK from March 2019".
Regards
mark687
the problem is - what if some of them do so? I expect the issue won't be that someone wants no relationship with the UK, and that not only do we have to make an agreement about that relationship, there might not be a consensus within the EU. |
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Post by sherlock on Sept 24, 2017 3:45:33 GMT
the problem is - what if some of them do so? I expect the issue won't be that someone wants no relationship with the UK, and that not only do we have to make an agreement about that relationship, there might not be a consensus within the EU. Fair point. Fundamentally I think all parties want a good relationship, no-one wants a bad one. Trouble is political interests may prevent that. Take the EU's position as an example. Barnier said something along the lines of demonstrating the impact of leaving the single market (I forget the exact quote), for the EU this is position they have to take. It's no exaggeration to say Brexit poses an existential threat to the EU, simply because if the UK gets a good deal with good access to the single market but none of the migration policies, then that may embolden Eurosceptic movements in Europe. Thus whilst it is in the EU's interest to get a deal, it's not in their interest to get too good a deal, if that makes any sense. International relations is a quagmire of such conflicting interests (that paragraph was just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Europe). Especially when you take into account Brexit negotiations have to deal with twenty seven potential differing interests. This is just my reading of the situation though, I could well be wrong. |
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Post by Timelord007 on Sept 24, 2017 6:26:52 GMT
I'd feel far more confident if Jason got involved in Brexit he talks a lot of sense.
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Post by jasonward on Sept 24, 2017 11:36:07 GMT
I'd feel far more confident if Jason got involved in Brexit he talks a lot of sense. Ha! Armchair critic is always a much easier job than the thing itself. |
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Post by sherlock on Dec 7, 2017 14:25:43 GMT
Well after this week's debacles, my expectations for any kind of success of Brexit have just gone down considerably.
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aztec
Chancellery Guard
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Post by aztec on Dec 7, 2017 14:33:13 GMT
I don't know enough about the EU or our options for dealing with them to say for definite, the optimist in me hopes for a 3-5 year transitional deal with an arrangement to stay in the EEA for a few years to avoid a hard brexit cliff edge and/or hoping we will simply abandon the idea (I voted Remain largely for economic reasons, I have no emotional attachment to the EU nor do I identify as European, I just didn't see a convincing argument for leaving, with every passing day I'm growing more and more worried about the possible economic fallout, feeling more and more convinced even the Brexiteers in the Goverment don't know what they want or to expect when we Leave, and with the likes of Thresa May/Boris Johnson deciding our negotiating strategy I don't expect a good deal from the EU) The pessimistic realist in me thinks we will crash out of the EU with no deal in place, revert to WTO rules for trading, and worse case scenario potentially tank the economy in the process and see the United Kingdom split apart within 15 years, the ignorant onlooker just wants this whole unpleasant business over and done with one way or another. I think the chances of us changing our minds and remaining are nill (that's assuming the EU 27 would even agree to rescind Article 50), but if Brexit goes as badly as some fear I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour with the next 5 years campaign to take us back into the EU... In light of recent developments/leaks to the press, I'm currently inclined to change my answer to ''We are totally ( insert rude word beginning with f)''    |
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Post by jasonward on Dec 7, 2017 19:40:43 GMT
Well after this week's debacles, my expectations for any kind of success of Brexit have just gone down considerably. I'm wondering if at this stage the Conservatives could jettison the DUP and bring EU exit bill before the house. I can see the obvious risks in doing that, but are they any worse than the alternatives? |
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Dec 7, 2017 19:59:40 GMT
I'm just ....aagghh. Just....aaggh.
Also, for good measure....aaggh!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2017 20:17:29 GMT
A new draft agreement has been shared with the DUP, and proposed. Don't worry - everything's going to be fine!  |
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Stevo
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Post by Stevo on Dec 7, 2017 21:10:03 GMT
And once again... I'll believe in Brexit when I see it!
I can't see Theresa May getting too far as PM in to 2018 at this rate, her Government seem to be a bunch of incompetent bureaucrats with no plan whatsoever. At least the DUP have principles and believe in something. The Conservatives come across as a group mealy-mouthed politicians making it up as they go along.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Dec 7, 2017 21:31:55 GMT
And once again... I'll believe in Brexit when I see it! At least the DUP have principles and believe in something. So do the Flat Earth Society!! |
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Stevo
Chancellery Guard
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Post by Stevo on Dec 7, 2017 23:15:55 GMT
And once again... I'll believe in Brexit when I see it! At least the DUP have principles and believe in something. So do the Flat Earth Society!! The Flat Earth Society must be popular, as I'm told they have members all around the globe!!!   (I like it when other people laugh at my jokes!)  |
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Post by jasonward on Dec 8, 2017 7:57:25 GMT
Well at 6am this morning, Junker announced enough of deal had been done to allow talks to move forward to trade.
Hmmmm.
I mean great, but 6am?
Also, apparently there will be no border between the NI and Eire and no border between NI and the rest of the UK. OK... errrrr... yeah, I need that explaining to me, because the obvious outcome of that is that no one will transfer good directly between the UK and the EU, but will instead go via NI and then choose which tax and trade regime best suits them, or even just avoids either by simply driving good over the border.
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Post by pawntake on Dec 8, 2017 8:37:06 GMT
We have left.......the article has been triggered.....there is no real way back now. But the road ahead will be a bumpy one, with interest rates on the rise, inflation on the rise and the only real way to pay for everything the changes will bring is an income tax rise too....or the quietly mooted savings grab. And more importantly Big finish Boxsets are creeping up in price!!!  |
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Post by number13 on Dec 8, 2017 9:22:36 GMT
Well at 6am this morning, Junker announced enough of deal had been done to allow talks to move forward to trade. Hmmmm. I mean great, but 6am? Also, apparently there will be no border between the NI and Eire and no border between NI and the rest of the UK. OK... errrrr... yeah, I need that explaining to me, because the obvious outcome of that is that no one will transfer good directly between the UK and the EU, but will instead go via NI and then choose which tax and trade regime best suits them, or even just avoids either by simply driving good over the border. Don't we always expect early starts and long days from the hard-working people who run the EU? At a guess there's a lot of 'photo-choreography' to be fitted in by the end of the day. People need to be seen in the right places, doing the right things, signing the right pieces of paper and saying how tough yet professional everyone has been in the negotiations. And with the UK, NI, Irish and EU leaderships all involved, that's a lot of choreography. For me the key line in the BBC report is "additional guarantees for Northern Ireland and the border, but an undefined statement on "full alignment", if there is no big trade deal." That's full alignment for the UK, not just NI I take it, keeping the Union intact and having agreed standards with the EU - which would be a necessary part of any free trade deal - mutually recognised standards. But the last part is the most important isn't it? IF there is a good free trade deal agreed, all parts of the the UK will be able to go on trading smoothly with all EU countries (including NI with the Republic) without consideration of any UK-EU border, just as at present. That's why (as I understand it) the UK government had wanted to discuss the Irish border question as part of the trade talks, not in advance. Get a good free trade deal and there will be no border question to discuss. I was optimistic last night and I'm even more optimistic this morning. I voted 'Remain' last year in part because I believed then (and still do, mostly) that the EU is a union run by basically reasonable people trying to do their collective best for Europe - which didn't mean I had to like or agree with all of it. The UK view is bound to often be different because of our very different history. Now, I think that all sides want a good deal and so we'll get one - however much more political theatre has to be played out first. |
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