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Post by jasonward on Dec 8, 2017 9:31:37 GMT
Well at 6am this morning, Junker announced enough of deal had been done to allow talks to move forward to trade. Hmmmm. I mean great, but 6am? Also, apparently there will be no border between the NI and Eire and no border between NI and the rest of the UK. OK... errrrr... yeah, I need that explaining to me, because the obvious outcome of that is that no one will transfer good directly between the UK and the EU, but will instead go via NI and then choose which tax and trade regime best suits them, or even just avoids either by simply driving good over the border. Don't we always expect early starts and long days from the hard-working people who run the EU? At a guess there's a lot of 'photo-choreography' to be fitted in by the end of the day. People need to be seen in the right places, doing the right things, signing the right pieces of paper and saying how tough yet professional everyone has been in the negotiations. And with the UK, NI, Irish and EU leaderships all involved, that's a lot of choreography. For me the key line in the BBC report is "additional guarantees for Northern Ireland and the border, but an undefined statement on "full alignment", if there is no big trade deal." That's full alignment for the UK, not just NI I take it, keeping the Union intact and having agreed standards with the EU - which would be a necessary part of any free trade deal - mutually recognised standards. But the last part is the most important isn't it? IF there is a good free trade deal agreed, all parts of the the UK will be able to go on trading smoothly with all EU countries (including NI with the Republic) without consideration of any UK-EU border, just as at present. That's why (as I understand it) the UK government had wanted to discuss the Irish border question as part of the trade talks, not in advance. Get a good free trade deal and there will be no border question to discuss. I was optimistic last night and I'm even more optimistic this morning. All sides want a good deal and so I think we'll get one - however much more political theatre has to be played out first. A free trade area... but not the EU, instead the EU and the UK. Sounds wonderful, all the benefits without any of the downsides.... except no. Putting aside that the EU has long said there is no free trade without free movement of people, it would in effect hand over all powers to regulate good and services to the EU, we'd need to conform with EU regulations but have no say in them, I also don't see the hardline Brexiteers going for it, those still say no deal is a good deal. We shall see, but I can't see there being a free trade agreement, the Brexiteers will never stand for it. |
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Post by pawntake on Dec 8, 2017 9:38:44 GMT
I am in complete agreement(voted remain also) sadly its too late and there is no going back!! We are British!(stiff upper lip!!and all that!) We must grin  and bear it!!
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Post by number13 on Dec 8, 2017 10:10:50 GMT
I was optimistic last night and I'm even more optimistic this morning. All sides want a good deal and so I think we'll get one - however much more political theatre has to be played out first. A free trade area... but not the EU, instead the EU and the UK. Sounds wonderful, all the benefits without any of the downsides.... except no. Putting aside that the EU has long said there is no free trade without free movement of people, it would in effect hand over all powers to regulate good and services to the EU, we'd need to conform with EU regulations but have no say in them, I also don't see the hardline Brexiteers going for it, those still say no deal is a good deal. We shall see, but I can't see there being a free trade agreement, the Brexiteers will never stand for it. Well, it's true they have said that, but money also has a very loud voice and UK-EU trade generates a lot of it! Any free trade deal between any partners requires agreed common standards. Right now we are 100% aligned with EU standards so there is no problem there. After Brexit, there will have to be a joint UK-EU body that agrees at least which standards can be mutually recognised for trade - the standards don't have to be identical, just mutually accepted. We will have to do the same with every potential free trade partner (and those much-talked-about new trade deals are the main possible benefit of Brexit as I see it - as long as we don't ruin our trade with Europe), so agreeing common standards is something we will have to get used to. Even the most hardline Brexiteeers! |
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Stevo
Chancellery Guard
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Post by Stevo on Dec 8, 2017 10:11:04 GMT
All sides want a good deal and so I think we'll get one - however much more political theatre has to be played out first. Sounds wonderful, all the benefits without any of the downsides.... Isn't that how everything is 'sold' to the public by the politicians? Something for everyone. It's why I don't trust any of them [politicians] as it's never all a bed of Roses like the spin would have people believe. |
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Post by number13 on Dec 8, 2017 11:48:43 GMT
Get a good free trade deal and there will be no border question to discuss. I was optimistic last night and I'm even more optimistic this morning. I voted 'Remain' last year in part because I believed then (and still do, mostly) that the EU is a union run by basically reasonable people trying to do their collective best for Europe - which didn't mean I had to like or agree with all of it. The UK view is bound to often be different because of our very different history. Now, I think that all sides want a good deal and so we'll get one - however much more political theatre has to be played out first. According to the EU negotiators this morning, we are looking at "a free trade agreement on the Canadian model" - that's the one without free movement of people of course. I think this is excellent news ( not because I oppose free movement, I think it's a benefit to the UK and EU alike) because it shows the EU have accepted Brexit as a 'done deal' and for all the daft talk in some of the UK press about 'punishment', the EU is looking at negotiating the best free trade model available within the constraints of Brexit as viewed by our government (out of the single market and customs union, British law sovereign and an end to freedom of movement). |
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Post by sherlock on Dec 8, 2017 12:14:13 GMT
Well at 6am this morning, Junker announced enough of deal had been done to allow talks to move forward to trade. Hmmmm. I mean great, but 6am? Also, apparently there will be no border between the NI and Eire and no border between NI and the rest of the UK. OK... errrrr... yeah, I need that explaining to me, because the obvious outcome of that is that no one will transfer good directly between the UK and the EU, but will instead go via NI and then choose which tax and trade regime best suits them, or even just avoids either by simply driving good over the border. Don't we always expect early starts and long days from the hard-working people who run the EU? Apparently this agreement was worked on overnight (which is not uncommon for international negotiations, especially the EU). Its good to finally see something concrete. No hard border, regulatory alignment (whatever that will turnout to mean, its gloriously vague) for whole U.K. in event of no deal, European Court of Justice to have a role in protecting rights of EU nationals in the U.K. for 8 years after Brexit, estimated divorce bill £35-40 billion to be fully agreed in next phase and finally a move to Phase 2 to try and get a trade deal started. It seems sensible on paper. But as ever not everyone's happy...Leave.EU's already called May a traitor, so there may still be some resistance from Brexit hardliners. |
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Post by TinDogPodcast on Dec 8, 2017 16:41:37 GMT
I'm just making the same noise Lurch made when dealing with callers to ghe Addams family house.
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Post by jasonward on Feb 28, 2018 17:40:26 GMT
So... what gives about NI and Brexit, we were told it was sorted. I didn't see how, but apparently it was, and yet now it isn't, Bexiteers accuse the EU of making a land grab, Theresa May says the UK constitutional integrity is under threat, others say a hard border is inevitable and Boris Johnson likens the Eire/NI border to the border between Camden and Westminster, which would be funny if it didn't show a breath taking indifference or ignorance to the issues and sensitivities involved.
I have no inside line on things, I wouldn't say I was particularly well informed on progress or possibilities, but my impressed on Brexit talks and planning is still that what will happen will largely happen by default because The Government lacks the cohesion and leadership to be able to do what's actually needed, I don't believe they even have clear policy goals, instead leaning first this way then that depending on who shouts loudest.
For the first time since this whole mess started, I know believe Labour would/could negotiate a better deal, if for no other reason than it has (at last) got what seems like a clear policy and I can see how they could work towards it with the EU, rather than lurch towards it and several other mutually exclusive possibilities despite the EU.
After the NI deal was announced I thought things were looking up a little at least, I thought perhaps this wasn't going to be a total screw up, but now I'm back to a pessimistic view that it will be a confused disaster.
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Post by sherlock on Feb 28, 2018 18:06:35 GMT
So... what gives about NI and Brexit, we were told it was sorted. The agreement in December was not legally binding, more a statement of intentions. So the question of Northern Ireland hasn't actually been settled yet. May's supposed to be giving a speech on Friday clarifying some stuff about Brexit so I'd hope this is included. The situation is simply the government's torn between its pledges to leave the single market and the need to to stop a hard border, without making any kind of arrangement specific to Northern Ireland as the DUP would be up in arms about that, as anything making Northern Ireland seem distinct from the rest of the UK is a no-no for them (so no border in the sea for example). Its all a big mess, again. I'm not sure if Labour would do a better job, but at this rate they would really struggle to do worse. |
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Mar 1, 2018 13:25:41 GMT
So... what gives about NI and Brexit, we were told it was sorted. I didn't see how, but apparently it was, and yet now it isn't, Bexiteers accuse the EU of making a land grab, Theresa May says the UK constitutional integrity is under threat, others say a hard border is inevitable and Boris Johnson likens the Eire/NI border to the border between Camden and Westminster, which would be funny if it didn't show a breath taking indifference or ignorance to the issues and sensitivities involved. I have no inside line on things, I wouldn't say I was particularly well informed on progress or possibilities, but my impressed on Brexit talks and planning is still that what will happen will largely happen by default because The Government lacks the cohesion and leadership to be able to do what's actually needed, I don't believe they even have clear policy goals, instead leaning first this way then that depending on who shouts loudest. For the first time since this whole mess started, I know believe Labour would/could negotiate a better deal, if for no other reason than it has (at last) got what seems like a clear policy and I can see how they could work towards it with the EU, rather than lurch towards it and several other mutually exclusive possibilities despite the EU. After the NI deal was announced I thought things were looking up a little at least, I thought perhaps this wasn't going to be a total screw up, but now I'm back to a pessimistic view that it will be a confused disaster. I have to agree that Brexit will end up a confused disaster.
The NI agreement in December was a fudge, the 1st draft rejected by the DUP had the UK agreeing to align NI with the EU in certain areas covered by the GFA. The 2nd draft was more ambiguous and left open the possibility that the whole of the UK could remain aligned with the EU in the areas covered by the GFA, so no internal UK border would be required (that was never a realistic prospect, but it allowed the govt. to get it past the DUP on the basis this would mean no border down the Irish Sea). The EU draft has ignored that ambiguity and instead stuck to the meaning of the 1st draft.
Brexit is basically a poisoned chalice that has been handed to May. The Brexiteers promised all things to all men, promises that no PM of any party would be able to keep. Sooner or later this reality is going to hit and May is going to get the blame (unfairly in a sense since she campaigned for Remain). Had May won the big majority she hoped for in the 2017 election than she would have been politically stronger and perhaps able to face down her backbench rebels. Instead she is a prisoner of her backbench Brexiteers and the DUP. Unfortunately for her she cannot deliver what the brexiteers want, since the pro-remain majority in the Commons is unlikely to vote for a hard brexit. Nor can she deliver the soft brexit the pro-Remain majority in the Commons wants as her backbench brexiteers would topple her if she tried. She is caught in a catch 22. And that's before we even get to Northern Ireland.
As for NI, once May committed to leaving the customs union a hard border became inevitable. The only question is whether it is an east/west or north/south border. Because of her reliance on 10 DUP MPs and the huge problem NI remaining in the customs union would cause with Scotland and Wales, May is going to go for a hard border in Ireland. In my opinion the government and the EU know that, but no one is quite saying it (to be fair to them, the EU are coming closest) and what is now happening is the two sides positioning themselves to be able to blame the other for a hard border. Given the importance of the UK to the Irish economy and how much Ireland would suffer from a hard brexit, she is probably gambling that Ireland will back down if faced with the prospect of no deal and a hard brexit.
As for Labour, I don't agree they have a policy. Corbyn said he would only join a customs union if the UK had a say in future EU trade deals - something so unrealistic it merely exposes his so-called shift for what it really is i.e. a cynical tactic to try and encourage pro-EU Tories to rebel in the Commons and defeat the government. Corbyn and his ilk are Brexiteers, the remnants of the old Bennite hard-left who campaigned for the UK to leave the EU in the 1975 referendum and the 1983 election. The only positive thing I can say about the right wing Brexiteers is at least they are honest enough to admit to being Brexiteers unlike Corbyn and his Momentum comrades.
Sooner or later the whole Brexit project is going to come horribly unstuck, because so many contradictory things have been promised that they cannot all be delivered. This could mean May's government falling, a hard brexit on WTO terms, or possibly a second referendum to reverse the 2016 referendum.
Right now, I have my fingers crossed for a second referendum, but I am not holding my breath. I think May falling, followed by an election, followed by a Corbyn government, followed by total economic disaster as a result of Labour's loony left policies is the most likely outcome.
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Post by pawntake on Mar 2, 2018 12:22:05 GMT
So... what gives about NI and Brexit, we were told it was sorted. I didn't see how, but apparently it was, and yet now it isn't, Bexiteers accuse the EU of making a land grab, Theresa May says the UK constitutional integrity is under threat, others say a hard border is inevitable and Boris Johnson likens the Eire/NI border to the border between Camden and Westminster, which would be funny if it didn't show a breath taking indifference or ignorance to the issues and sensitivities involved. I have no inside line on things, I wouldn't say I was particularly well informed on progress or possibilities, but my impressed on Brexit talks and planning is still that what will happen will largely happen by default because The Government lacks the cohesion and leadership to be able to do what's actually needed, I don't believe they even have clear policy goals, instead leaning first this way then that depending on who shouts loudest. For the first time since this whole mess started, I know believe Labour would/could negotiate a better deal, if for no other reason than it has (at last) got what seems like a clear policy and I can see how they could work towards it with the EU, rather than lurch towards it and several other mutually exclusive possibilities despite the EU. After the NI deal was announced I thought things were looking up a little at least, I thought perhaps this wasn't going to be a total screw up, but now I'm back to a pessimistic view that it will be a confused disaster. I have to agree that Brexit will end up a confused disaster.
Brexit is basically a poisoned chalice that has been handed to May. The Brexiteers promised all things to all men, promises that no PM of any party would be able to keep. Sooner or later this reality is going to hit and May is going to get the blame (unfairly in a sense since she campaigned for Remain).
Confused disaster? More like a nightmare fantasy!!!! As for Theresa May, why call a general election? Then refuse to go on TV to debate the issues with other party leaders, an act of disrespect and contempt, which in the end cost her votes!! Then there is Michael Gove and Buffoon Boris Johnson who stabbed David Cameron in the front, then in the back just to make sure. Then after "The Brexit Referendum" Snake-in-the-grass Gove stabbed Boris in the back, and made his own rather pathetic attempt to become party leader!! And these two are in the present cabinet!! It beggars belief!! God help us!!! A shambles all-round!!!
This ain't no political breakdown oh no!!This is the self-inflicted Road to Hell!!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2018 12:54:18 GMT
I have to agree that Brexit will end up a confused disaster.
Brexit is basically a poisoned chalice that has been handed to May. The Brexiteers promised all things to all men, promises that no PM of any party would be able to keep. Sooner or later this reality is going to hit and May is going to get the blame (unfairly in a sense since she campaigned for Remain).
Confused disaster? More like a nightmare fantasy!!!! As for Theresa May, why call a general election? Then refuse to go on TV to debate the issues with other party leaders, an act of disrespect and contempt, which in the end cost her votes!! Then there is Michael Gove and Buffoon Boris Johnson who stabbed David Cameron in the front, then in the back just to make sure. Then after "The Brexit Referendum" Snake-in-the-grass Gove stabbed Boris in the back, and made his own rather pathetic attempt to become party leader!! And these two are in the present cabinet!! It beggars belief!! God help us!!! A shambles all-round!!!
This ain't no political breakdown oh no!!This is the self-inflicted Road to Hell!!
Without trying to demean or trivialise anything, I am genuinely grateful to purveyors of escapism like Big Finish for giving me a distraction from the madness that surrounds us. |
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,689
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Post by lidar2 on Mar 2, 2018 13:16:10 GMT
Confused disaster? More like a nightmare fantasy!!!! As for Theresa May, why call a general election? Then refuse to go on TV to debate the issues with other party leaders, an act of disrespect and contempt, which in the end cost her votes!! Then there is Michael Gove and Buffoon Boris Johnson who stabbed David Cameron in the front, then in the back just to make sure. Then after "The Brexit Referendum" Snake-in-the-grass Gove stabbed Boris in the back, and made his own rather pathetic attempt to become party leader!! And these two are in the present cabinet!! It beggars belief!! God help us!!! A shambles all-round!!!
This ain't no political breakdown oh no!!This is the self-inflicted Road to Hell!!
Without trying to demean or trivialise anything, I am genuinely grateful to purveyors of escapism like Big Finish for giving me a distraction from the madness that surrounds us. I think all of us, regardless of political persuasion, can wholeheartedly endorse that sentiment!! |
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,689
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Post by lidar2 on Mar 29, 2018 12:10:11 GMT
Listened to the radio today. It just gets madder and madder. Parliament promised a meaningful vote in Autumn yet no one seems to have a clue what it would mean if Parliament rejected it at that point.
1. Jacob Rees-Mogg seemed to think it would mean a no deal hard brexit.
2. Official Labour party position is that it would require the government to renegotiate a different deal - something that both brexiters like David Davis and remainers like Tony Blair agree is utterly unrealistic.
3. Others seems to think it would mean we don't leave at all.
I really don't know how this will all end.
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Post by jasonward on Mar 29, 2018 12:44:49 GMT
Listened to the radio today. It just gets madder and madder. Parliament promised a meaningful vote in Autumn yet no one seems to have a clue what it would mean if Parliament rejected it at that point. 1. Jacob Rees-Mogg seemed to think it would mean a no deal hard brexit. 2. Official Labour party position is that it would require the government to renegotiate a different deal - something that both brexiters like David Davis and remainers like Tony Blair agree is utterly unrealistic. 3. Others seems to think it would mean we don't leave at all. I really don't know how this will all end. I've heard so many absolutely clear 100% certain totally different opinions on this. I think the answer is no one knows. Although, I'm left thinking that unless we formerly send notice "we left" then, surely we never actually leave? Unless the original notice of the intent to leave has automatic clauses, which I don't believe it does. I kind of look at like a notice to quit at work (resignation) it takes more than a resignation notice for you to actually leave a job, I know this, because I've worked in two jobs beyond the end of my formal notice period, indeed in one case, I resigned again about 18 months later, before actually leaving. |
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Post by sherlock on Mar 29, 2018 14:10:14 GMT
Listened to the radio today. It just gets madder and madder. Parliament promised a meaningful vote in Autumn yet no one seems to have a clue what it would mean if Parliament rejected it at that point. 1. Jacob Rees-Mogg seemed to think it would mean a no deal hard brexit. 2. Official Labour party position is that it would require the government to renegotiate a different deal - something that both brexiters like David Davis and remainers like Tony Blair agree is utterly unrealistic. 3. Others seems to think it would mean we don't leave at all. I really don't know how this will all end. Nobody knows. Realistically if the vote fails (which seems unlikely to me, but who knows with the current state of politics), the government has two choices: Either beg the EU to move the Article 50 deadline, which I think is possible, to give them time to renegotiate or embrace their 'no deal is better than a bad deal' mantra and prepare to default to WTO rules. I can't see Brexit stopping altogether. |
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Post by sherlock on Jul 6, 2018 20:49:07 GMT
So it sounds like May's chosen the softer route. Remains to be seen how the hard Brexiteers will take this news (judging by front page of tomorrow's Daily Mail, not well). Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444 |
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Post by jasonward on Jul 6, 2018 21:34:48 GMT
So it sounds like May's chosen the softer route. Remains to be seen how the hard Brexiteers will take this news (judging by front page of tomorrow's Daily Mail, not well). Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444Interesting, I wait to see how much of her party she can take with her. |
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Post by jasonward on Jul 7, 2018 20:53:52 GMT
A quick question. But now I come to think about this, isn't this just an agreement by May's government on it's negotiating stance? I mean, it's not (or perhaps it is) the basis of an agreement actually being agreed to right now by the EU is it?
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Post by mark687 on Jul 7, 2018 21:11:11 GMT
A quick question. But now I come to think about this, isn't this just an agreement by May's government on it's negotiating stance? I mean, it's not (or perhaps it is) the basis of an agreement actually being agreed to right now by the EU is it?
It should be the negotiating stance but from the EU POV I think they think its a deal basis whether they or our Parliament will accept it is another matter.
Regards
mark687
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and bear it!!
