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Post by sherlock on Dec 10, 2020 13:45:08 GMT
Seems the government forgot about the UK currently relying on an exemption from the pandemic ban on non-EU citizens entering the EU (except for essential travel). An exemption which runs out when the transition period does...
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 10, 2020 14:50:29 GMT
Brexit has now been added to the agenda of the EU council tonight.
Can we read anything into this? Probably not, in and of itself. It would look cavalier on the EU's part to go into no-deal without even formally discussing brexit, so it probably has to be on their agenda.
Maybe, just maybe, they will make some minor concession that will be enough for Boris to seize upon as evidence of EU movement and provide a fig-leaf for his cave-in. Maybe I'm just being an optimist again.
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Post by The Brigadier on Dec 10, 2020 16:16:02 GMT
I wonder just how many voters on both the Leave and Remain side imagined that at this late stage of the transition period and in the midst of a global pandemic and a shattered economy we would be where we are now?
The news coverage is pretty gloomy but I'm still going to keep my fingers crossed that by Sunday common sense and realism will have won over blind faith and ideology.
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Post by sherlock on Dec 10, 2020 18:08:56 GMT
Here we go...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2020 18:18:31 GMT
You can't have access to our single market, but yes we still demand the right to plunder your waters, that can't change. Friggin cheek, a clean break is what's needed.
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Post by sherlock on Dec 11, 2020 10:21:03 GMT
That dinner really did go badly...
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Post by number13 on Dec 11, 2020 13:21:20 GMT
Things could be moving quite quickly? (For the better, hopefully.)
On the Level Playing Field, the EU's idea of the "ratchet clause" (we must match EU regulations in future as well as now or else) seems to be moving back towards a mutually agreed TWO-way ratchet as was proposed a while back, not one-way imposition as has been proposed in the last week or two (and rejected by the UK, reasonably enough imo.) In other words, in future we would have mutually agreed new higher standards proposed by either side, or divergence. Not EU-imposed new standards, or divergence. If so, that should be acceptable would you think?
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 11, 2020 14:12:14 GMT
Things could be moving quite quickly? (For the better, hopefully.)
On the Level Playing Field, the EU's idea of the "ratchet clause" (we must match EU regulations in future as well as now or else) seems to be moving back towards a mutually agreed TWO-way ratchet as was proposed a while back, not one-way imposition as has been proposed in the last week or two (and rejected by the UK, reasonably enough imo.) In other words, in future we would have mutually agreed new higher standards proposed by either side, or divergence. Not EU-imposed new standards, or divergence. If so, that should be acceptable would you think?
I dunno, this is not being presented as a new offer, just public clarification of the existing offer. Which could mean it's more about the blame game than a genuine effort. Besides, if this was on the table all along, doesn't it make Boris and David Frost look a bit thick if they turn around and accept it - "Er, sorry, Michel, we didn't understand what you meant. Now that Urusla has explained it properly, of course we agree."
Having said that, on balance I remain optimistic of a deal. Given the consequences of no-deal I can't bring myself to believe that any sane government would willingly embrace it. I think some very minor fig-leaf concession on the EU's part that Boris can hail as a major concession and spin as a triumph will be what gets this over the line. But I'm not as optimistic as I was before the dinner on Wednesday - it is not hard to make a plausible case the other way. Possibly Boris is gambling on an EU concession that they are disinclined to make, possibly he knows that any deal at all will incur the wrath of Steve Baker and Nigel Farage and he doesn't feel politically strong enough to face them down given how his government's mishandling of covid has drained his political capital.
If we get to Sunday and no-deal is happening then I think the next 3 weeks will be very interesting in British politics - how many Tories will break ranks, and will they make any difference?
Whatever happens, I think the brexit saga has a few more twists and turns in store for us before it is over.
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Post by number13 on Dec 11, 2020 14:29:13 GMT
Things could be moving quite quickly? (For the better, hopefully.)
On the Level Playing Field, the EU's idea of the "ratchet clause" (we must match EU regulations in future as well as now or else) seems to be moving back towards a mutually agreed TWO-way ratchet as was proposed a while back, not one-way imposition as has been proposed in the last week or two (and rejected by the UK, reasonably enough imo.) In other words, in future we would have mutually agreed new higher standards proposed by either side, or divergence. Not EU-imposed new standards, or divergence. If so, that should be acceptable would you think?
I dunno, this is not being presented as a new offer, just public clarification of the existing offer. Which could mean it's more about the blame game than a genuine effort. Besides, if this was on the table all along, doesn't it make Boris and David Frost look a bit thick if they turn around and accept it - "Er, sorry, Michel, we didn't understand what you meant. Now that Urusla has explained it properly, of course we agree."
Having said that, on balance I remain optimistic of a deal. Given the consequences of no-deal I can't bring myself to believe that any sane government would willingly embrace it. I think some very minor fig-leaf concession on the EU's part that Boris can hail as a major concession and spin as a triumph will be what gets this over the line. But I'm not as optimistic as I was before the dinner on Wednesday - it is not hard to make a plausible case the other way. Possibly Boris is gambling on an EU concession that they are disinclined to make, possibly he knows that any deal at all will incur the wrath of Steve Baker and Nigel Farage and he doesn't feel politically strong enough to face them down given how his government's mishandling of covid has drained his political capital.
If we get to Sunday and no-deal is happening then I think the next 3 weeks will be very interesting in British politics - how many Tories will break ranks, and will they make any difference?
Whatever happens, I think the brexit saga has a few more twists and turns in store for us before it is over.
I don't think it's a question of 'understanding' on anyone's part.
From various other journalists as well as the one report I quoted, it seems this is the old proposal that was on the table two weeks ago when the talks seemed to be going quite well towards a conclusion, then was 'hardened' into unacceptability after intervention from one or more European capitals. Who were (if the reports are accurate) unhappy with the position their president and negotiators had taken. If the position has now been softened again back to where it was previously, that should remove a major problem - one which never needed to have existed at all.
Now perhaps it needs an acceptance by the EU on state aid that EU collective aid to a sector should be matchable by the UK as well as an EU nation's individual aid, and a sensible proposal on the fish quotas instead of the laughable and derisory 15-18% (if that's right - I can hardly believe it could have been that low), and hopefully a deal can be done?
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 11, 2020 14:47:41 GMT
I dunno, this is not being presented as a new offer, just public clarification of the existing offer. Which could mean it's more about the blame game than a genuine effort. Besides, if this was on the table all along, doesn't it make Boris and David Frost look a bit thick if they turn around and accept it - "Er, sorry, Michel, we didn't understand what you meant. Now that Urusla has explained it properly, of course we agree."
Having said that, on balance I remain optimistic of a deal. Given the consequences of no-deal I can't bring myself to believe that any sane government would willingly embrace it. I think some very minor fig-leaf concession on the EU's part that Boris can hail as a major concession and spin as a triumph will be what gets this over the line. But I'm not as optimistic as I was before the dinner on Wednesday - it is not hard to make a plausible case the other way. Possibly Boris is gambling on an EU concession that they are disinclined to make, possibly he knows that any deal at all will incur the wrath of Steve Baker and Nigel Farage and he doesn't feel politically strong enough to face them down given how his government's mishandling of covid has drained his political capital.
If we get to Sunday and no-deal is happening then I think the next 3 weeks will be very interesting in British politics - how many Tories will break ranks, and will they make any difference?
Whatever happens, I think the brexit saga has a few more twists and turns in store for us before it is over.
I don't think it's a question of 'understanding' on anyone's part.
From various other journalists as well as the one report I quoted, it seems this is the old proposal that was on the table two weeks ago when the talks seemed to be going quite well towards a conclusion, then was 'hardened' into unacceptability after intervention from one or more European capitals. Who were (if the reports are accurate) unhappy with the position their president and negotiators had taken. If the position has now been softened again back to where it was previously, that should remove a major problem - one which never needed to have existed at all.
Now perhaps it needs an acceptance by the EU on state aid that EU collective aid to a sector should be matchable by the UK as well as an EU nation's individual aid, and a sensible proposal on the fish quotas instead of the laughable and derisory 15-18% (if that's right - I can hardly believe it could have been that low), and hopefully a deal can be done?
I have the feeling that Boris wants a deal but needs something however small from the EU to let him present it as a triumph. He was expecting to get it at Wednesday's dinner but didn't and his proposed visit to Marcon or Merkel isn't happening. Almost as if the EU aren't playing ball by sticking to the script Boris has written for them. Or else they are fed up with his antics and are going to make him squirm for 48 hours before offering the fig-leaf concession he needs.
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Post by number13 on Dec 11, 2020 15:25:16 GMT
I don't think it's a question of 'understanding' on anyone's part.
From various other journalists as well as the one report I quoted, it seems this is the old proposal that was on the table two weeks ago when the talks seemed to be going quite well towards a conclusion, then was 'hardened' into unacceptability after intervention from one or more European capitals. Who were (if the reports are accurate) unhappy with the position their president and negotiators had taken. If the position has now been softened again back to where it was previously, that should remove a major problem - one which never needed to have existed at all.
Now perhaps it needs an acceptance by the EU on state aid that EU collective aid to a sector should be matchable by the UK as well as an EU nation's individual aid, and a sensible proposal on the fish quotas instead of the laughable and derisory 15-18% (if that's right - I can hardly believe it could have been that low), and hopefully a deal can be done?
I have the feeling that Boris wants a deal but needs something however small from the EU to let him present it as a triumph. He was expecting to get it at Wednesday's dinner but didn't and his proposed visit to Marcon or Merkel isn't happening. Almost as if the EU aren't playing ball by sticking to the script Boris has written for them. Or else they are fed up with his antics and are going to make him squirm for 48 hours before offering the fig-leaf concession he needs. I'm sure he does want a deal, I think both sides (UK and EU) do. And we did seem to be getting very close about two weeks ago, both sides seemed positive. But I don't think he did expect to get anything directly at the dinner because the problem is that the EU is the negotiator but of course doesn't have the authority to decide the terms of negotation - that rests in Paris, Berlin, etc. The EU team seem constructive as far as anyone can tell and I'm sure they're all trying incredibly hard for a deal but - even to the very top - they can only negotiate within the limits they've been set by the national governments.
One of whom (and I've not heard anyone suggest it was other than, of course, France ) decided it wanted to narrow some of those limits with just a few weeks to go. And Ireland for one sounded worried by this change and publically reminded the EU to negotiate on behalf of all 27. Which was quite telling imo. Political posturing is not only done on this side of the Channel and whatever other problems he may have, Boris is one leader with a large majority and no nationwide election for over three years. Other leaders are not so fortunate.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2020 18:53:11 GMT
I don't think it's a question of 'understanding' on anyone's part.
From various other journalists as well as the one report I quoted, it seems this is the old proposal that was on the table two weeks ago when the talks seemed to be going quite well towards a conclusion, then was 'hardened' into unacceptability after intervention from one or more European capitals. Who were (if the reports are accurate) unhappy with the position their president and negotiators had taken. If the position has now been softened again back to where it was previously, that should remove a major problem - one which never needed to have existed at all.
Now perhaps it needs an acceptance by the EU on state aid that EU collective aid to a sector should be matchable by the UK as well as an EU nation's individual aid, and a sensible proposal on the fish quotas instead of the laughable and derisory 15-18% (if that's right - I can hardly believe it could have been that low), and hopefully a deal can be done?
I have the feeling that Boris wants a deal but needs something however small from the EU to let him present it as a triumph. He was expecting to get it at Wednesday's dinner but didn't and his proposed visit to Marcon or Merkel isn't happening. Almost as if the EU aren't playing ball by sticking to the script Boris has written for them. Or else they are fed up with his antics and are going to make him squirm for 48 hours before offering the fig-leaf concession he needs. No antics by the EU then, all down to the UK is it. I hope he tells them to stick it and walks away.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,819
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Post by lidar2 on Dec 11, 2020 22:43:16 GMT
I have the feeling that Boris wants a deal but needs something however small from the EU to let him present it as a triumph. He was expecting to get it at Wednesday's dinner but didn't and his proposed visit to Marcon or Merkel isn't happening. Almost as if the EU aren't playing ball by sticking to the script Boris has written for them. Or else they are fed up with his antics and are going to make him squirm for 48 hours before offering the fig-leaf concession he needs. No antics by the EU then, all down to the UK is it. I hope he tells them to stick it and walks away. Well, it is all down to the UK. We did a very stupid thing (brexit) and are paying the price. It is mess of our own making.
The outcome of any negotiation depends on the relative power of the 2 parties and their negotiating skill. In terms of relative power, the UK is the weaker party - brexiteer delusions notwithstanding - and in terms of negotiating skill it has not played its hand particularly well. The best the UK was ever going to get is a pretty terrible deal and that is what is on offer. The UK has a choice between no deal or a bad deal and contrary to what Theresa May said even a bad deal is better than no deal.
In the end I think Boris will take the bad deal and spin it as a great deal but maybe he'll go for no-deal
What we are seeing and will continue to see is remainers being proved right and brexiteers being proved wrong.
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Post by doctorkernow on Dec 11, 2020 23:20:55 GMT
Hello again.
There is no, I repeat no satisfaction in being proved right. Whatever 'deal' is wrangled, Brexit is going to cause many changes to the detriment of ordinary people. Every business, that imports or exports to the EU will be affected, that could have a knock on effect on employment, inward investment to the UK will suffer although to what extent it is hard to say and we will become that damp little island of the northern coast of Europe. It is impossible to say who is 'right'or 'wrong', the only judge will be history. Come back in 2030 or 2036 and see where we are then.
The whole sorry business is just too upsetting for words.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2020 5:56:31 GMT
No antics by the EU then, all down to the UK is it. I hope he tells them to stick it and walks away. Well, it is all down to the UK. We did a very stupid thing (brexit) and are paying the price. It is mess of our own making.
The outcome of any negotiation depends on the relative power of the 2 parties and their negotiating skill. In terms of relative power, the UK is the weaker party - brexiteer delusions notwithstanding - and in terms of negotiating skill it has not played its hand particularly well. The best the UK was ever going to get is a pretty terrible deal and that is what is on offer. The UK has a choice between no deal or a bad deal and contrary to what Theresa May said even a bad deal is better than no deal.
In the end I think Boris will take the bad deal and spin it as a great deal but maybe he'll go for no-deal
What we are seeing and will continue to see is remainers being proved right and brexiteers being proved wrong.
Well all that of course is simply your opinion.
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Post by johnhurtdoctor on Dec 12, 2020 7:46:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2020 9:21:17 GMT
Macron, "I'm not giving up my piece of the cake". What part of, doesn't belong to him does he not get.
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Post by johnhurtdoctor on Dec 12, 2020 12:59:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2020 16:12:54 GMT
I have withheld from posting here the past week, despite following things closely. People do not seem to be listening to either side of the debate. By the sword divided and all that. As someone who was quite pro EU until shortly prior to the actual vote, I feel I was turned by an informed understanding of both arguments. I have stated earlier in the thread how I conducted debates with my Sixth Form Tutor Group and spoke in favour myself of the Remain argument. I also consider myself well educated so do not take too kindly to the Brexiter Thicko argument .Without getting polemical, which would be a wasted effort, given that I expect no-one to change their position at this stage, these are a few articles which give some sound rationale behind the current UK negotiating position. Boris may have many faults, but he is not stupid, and this is at least one area of business where he is well briefed. And of course some of you are welcome to dismiss these arguments as being right wing bias based on the their sources. However, it is worth bearing in mind that a number of prominent Remain voters have since gone on record that they feel, based on the behaviour of the EU throughout negotiations, that it is right that we exit, for better or worse. Andrew Neil, is also on record stating that he does not feel it is on our best interests to exit, but that the terms of the deal are unacceptable and have served to harden peoples resolve towards a no deal brexit and its effects. As I say, these are worth reading and I would suggest that there is a great deal of integrity in their points raised for a balanced perspective at the very least. www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-johnson-can-t-sign-the-current-brexit-dealwww.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-eu-has-dangerously-misread-britain-tlltcnwj9/www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-should-not-accept-brexit-in-name-onlywww.spectator.co.uk/article/if-boris-doesn-t-blink-over-brexit-keir-starmer-becomes-unelectablewww.spectator.co.uk/article/the-political-asymmetry-of-the-brexit-talkswww.spectator.co.uk/article/enforcing-fisheries-policy-isn-t-gunboat-diplomacy-
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Post by johnhurtdoctor on Dec 12, 2020 16:47:13 GMT
I have withheld from posting here the past week, despite following things closely. People do not seem to be listening to either side of the debate. By the sword divided and all that. As someone who was quite pro EU until shortly prior to the actual vote, I feel I was turned by an informed understanding of both arguments. I have stated earlier in the thread how I conducted debates with my Sixth Form Tutor Group and spoke in favour myself of the Remain argument. I also consider myself well educated so do not take too kindly to the Brexiter Thicko argument .Without getting polemical, which would be a wasted effort, given that I expect no-one to change their position at this stage, these are a few articles which give some sound rationale behind the current UK negotiating position. Boris may have many faults, but he is not stupid, and this is at least one area of business where he is well briefed. And of course some of you are welcome to dismiss these arguments as being right wing bias based on the their sources. However, it is worth bearing in mind that a number of prominent Remain voters have since gone on record that they feel, based on the behaviour of the EU throughout negotiations, that it is right that we exit, for better or worse. Andrew Neil, is also on record stating that he does not feel it is on our best interests to exit, but that the terms of the deal are unacceptable and have served to harden peoples resolve towards a no deal brexit and its effects. As I say, these are worth reading and I would suggest that there is a great deal of integrity in their points raised for a balanced perspective at the very least. www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-johnson-can-t-sign-the-current-brexit-dealwww.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-eu-has-dangerously-misread-britain-tlltcnwj9/www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-should-not-accept-brexit-in-name-onlywww.spectator.co.uk/article/if-boris-doesn-t-blink-over-brexit-keir-starmer-becomes-unelectablewww.spectator.co.uk/article/the-political-asymmetry-of-the-brexit-talkswww.spectator.co.uk/article/enforcing-fisheries-policy-isn-t-gunboat-diplomacy-As Daver mentions some of us my take into account the right-wing bias of The Spectator, indeed Boris Johnson was previously editor of The Spectator. The current commissioning editor is Mary Wakefield (Dominic Cummings's wife) & the political editor is James Forsyth who is married to Downing Street Press Secretary, Allegra Stratton.
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