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Post by sherlock on Nov 20, 2018 22:08:53 GMT
Well, Larry's holding on. Larry’s the only consistent thing in politics these days. As his satirical twitter account notes, he’s been in position longer than any of the current party leaders. Tbh if I were to make a prediction on the outcome of Brexit now-Crash out with no deal. May’s Deal is the one that has been negotiated (the EU shows no sign of allowing reforms to it, and in fairness why would they? This deal pretty much settles all their issues from Brexit), and it’s virtually impossible to get through the Commons. Ugh. What a mess.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2018 22:14:29 GMT
When did I say I wanted a Labour government? Well it seemed a reasonable conclusion, since the burning pit of crap that is the Tory party at the moment seems to want to make things actually worse, so getting a different stripe of them is just a terrible idea. I don't want tory either.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Nov 20, 2018 22:40:17 GMT
Well it seemed a reasonable conclusion, since the burning pit of crap that is the Tory party at the moment seems to want to make things actually worse, so getting a different stripe of them is just a terrible idea. I don't want tory either. Well, we're both out of luck then I reckon. We might as well vote Saxon.
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Post by whiskeybrewer on Nov 21, 2018 9:55:10 GMT
I don't want tory either. Well, we're both out of luck then I reckon. We might as well vote Saxon. Wheels of Steel. The Ultimate Party Anthem (Yes i know who you really meant)
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Post by mark687 on Nov 27, 2018 11:51:46 GMT
Papers Reporting the May/Corbyn Brexit TV Debate could be next Sunday (9th December) meaning Who Finale delayed by a week, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355299Regards mark687
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Post by Digi on Nov 27, 2018 11:59:27 GMT
Papers Reporting the May/Corbyn Brexit TV Debate could be next Sunday (9th December) meaning Who Finale delayed by a week, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355299Regards mark687 And I thought this entire shambles couldn't be any worse.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 12:12:42 GMT
Papers Reporting the May/Corbyn Brexit TV Debate could be next Sunday (9th December) meaning Who Finale delayed by a week, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355299Regards mark687 I don't know about the other outlets but The Guardian's article don't seem to think there's any one show that's being targeted for a move so I wouldn't get worried yet. They've not even decided it would be the Beeb. "However, Downing Street’s desire for a peak slot may come against the brutal reality of TV schedules. The prime minister’s team want the largest possible audience for such a debate, but the only logistically possible Sunday night that could work is 9 December, which could bring its own problems if they wish to appear on one of the biggest terrestrial channels. That evening, BBC One is set to show Countryfile, the season finales of Doctor Who and David Attenborough’s Dynasties, plus Strictly Come Dancing and a new drama by Jimmy McGovern. Meanwhile, ITV will be showing the final of I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here. It is unlikely that a sceptical audience settling down for Sunday night viewing would welcome any of the shows being interrupted or delayed, even for a political debate that could shape the future of Britain." I like the last sentence. That the country has just about tolerated Brexit til now but moving Countryfile? The last straw! It's a nonsense debate anyway. Why try and sell anything to the country when May can't sell her deal to her own party? The debate changes no-ones opinion. And making it just May V Corbyn makes it seem like a general election precursor.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Nov 27, 2018 12:18:26 GMT
I can't see the debates happening. May vs Corbyn would be one soft brexiteer debating with another, how could that be justified in terms of balance? It would mean leaving out the hard brexiteers at one end of the spectrum and the 2nd referendum remainers at the other end. Not to mention the SNP, plus no Northern Irish input when the backstop is one of the most controversial aspects of it all?
Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I can't see it happening in the form currently being proposed.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 12:24:53 GMT
I can't see the debates happening. May vs Corbyn would be one soft brexiteer debating with another, how could that be justified in terms of balance? It would mean leaving out the hard brexiteers at one end of the spectrum and the 2nd referendum remainers at the other end. Not to mention the SNP, plus no Northern Irish input when the backstop is one of the most controversial aspects of it all? Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I can't see it happening in the form currently being proposed. That's the problem - if the debate is just Corbyn against May...what's the point? He just wants a GE - he's not going to fight for Scotland or Ireland. He's going to be there for Labour. So much for the good of the country.... But from her POV if she invites the other parties then she will be massively outgunned as not one agrees with her. It'd be fish in a barrel for Sturgeon et al. I think it's posturing and she wants the political capital for angling for a debate then not getting one, saying "Well, I did offer...". It's this weeks tactic to cling on to her job. She'll need another next week. In a month or so I think she'll have run out of ideas and we'll see her taking hostages onto the roof of No. 10 demanding she gets to stay on.
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Post by jasonward on Nov 27, 2018 12:36:53 GMT
Papers Reporting the May/Corbyn Brexit TV Debate could be next Sunday (9th December) meaning Who Finale delayed by a week, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355299Regards mark687 If it happens, I can see Theresa May is playing all or bust, I mean what choice does she have, in 2 weeks time she could be a Prime Minster firmly steering the UK out of the EU, should could be Prime Minister facing a no confidence vote from her own party, or her entire government could be on the verge of collapse facing a no confidence vote in parliament, what has she to loose from a TV debate?
But when it comes to Scottish, Welsh, Greens, Labour, Liberals and anyone else that feels that they should be involved, each of those has something to loose, I expect to see each group making demands and at some point those demands will be incompatible. I think you also got to consider, that none of those groups actually represent the arguments really.
There are 3 main threads at the moment
Brexit hard Brexit as per the deal Don't Brexit at all
Theresa May is obviously in the "Brexit as per the deal", and the Liberals are in the "Don't Brexit at all" camp, but who is going to represent the hard Brexiteers? They don't (currently) have a party platform unless they invite UKIP, which given their recent tie up with Far Right figure head Tommy Robinson and drop off in the polls seems unlikely.
And Theresa May appears to be correct what she says Labour has no coherent strategy on Brexit, well, actually I don't think she is, if they were in power right now, they'd probably be doing pretty much exactly what she is doing, they oppose her because it's politically expedient to do so, not because they have a compelling vision.
If Theresa May can win this vote and steer a government through to actual Brexit it will be nothing short of a political miracle. I'm suspecting were in for a general election, a messy one, perhaps one even where The Conservatives, and maybe others rip themselves apart and form new groupings, but I'm not sure it's an election anyone can really win, I can't see any group (Hard, Soft, No Brexit) getting a majority. But it makes soft exit just about impossible, it becomes a stark choice of Hard Brexit (crashing out the EU with no safety net at all) or abandoning Brexit all together, and it will take a very canny politician indeed to pull either of those off without leaving a lot of political blood spread around.
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Post by sherlock on Nov 27, 2018 12:42:23 GMT
Papers Reporting the May/Corbyn Brexit TV Debate could be next Sunday (9th December) meaning Who Finale delayed by a week, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355299Regards mark687 It’s an interesting choice of tactic for Downing Street. May is not a strong debater (generally she’s not good with spontaneity) so this could be a gift to Corbyn if he prepares well enough. The framing of this could work in May’s favour. Suddenly the division is not May vs half her own party but May vs Corbyn, which could work in rallying Tory MPs and members on the fence about the deal. Bit a long shot mind.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Nov 27, 2018 22:45:21 GMT
Well some good may come of all this nonsense if it shatters the Tories.
A debate is pointless if there isn't another referendum to follow it up, and even if there was one, as has been said above two soft brexiteers is redundant. Then again the hard brexiteers have been shown to have no actual argument outside of fantasy politics and empire 2.0 thinking, and the public, even those who voted leave and still want to, know that they were liars, so still no point in a debate.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 23:02:19 GMT
As others have said, it is the pointlessness of this proposed debate that astounds me. Whatever the outcome, we (the great unwashed general public) won't get any say in Brexit developments, so what is the point of proving anything - or otherwise - to us? I will say that whatever the politics, I feel May will pretty much wipe the floor with Corbyn. She has held her own in debates in the Commons whereas he often comes across as hesitant and uncertain.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2018 6:19:10 GMT
As others have said, it is the pointlessness of this proposed debate that astounds me. Whatever the outcome, we (the great unwashed general public) won't get any say in Brexit developments, so what is the point of proving anything - or otherwise - to us? I will say that whatever the politics, I feel May will pretty much wipe the floor with Corbyn. She has held her own in debates in the Commons whereas he often comes across as hesitant and uncertain.
She would I think steal the show in a debate....but it would be pettty theft Corbyn is a more reasoned debater and will get flustered when having someone as stern as May shouting him down. However the whole debate is pointless. What's the point if the audience watching have no further say? She can't convince her own party. Corbyn's never convinced his party about anything (though they shutup after he did better in the GE than anyone thought) so you've got two leaders having to argue positions neither of them truly believe in for the purpose of convincing their own backbenchers - who have made their minds up anyway. No-one's on the fence these days. There's no-where near enough MPs ready to back May's deal just to get on with things. You can't help but feel she's at the Alamo now with her own party as Santa Anna, not in the mood for taking prisoners and just waiting to attack. Yet she's doing her best Davy Crockett, fighting on long after defeat became apparent to everyone else. Honestly - it really does feel like a waste of messing up the telly schedules for a debate between these two. Like having a debate between Captain Smith and Thomas Andrews on the deck of the Titanic as it's sinking on the reasons why it's going down.....
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Nov 28, 2018 9:21:42 GMT
Papers Reporting the May/Corbyn Brexit TV Debate could be next Sunday (9th December) meaning Who Finale delayed by a week, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355299Regards mark687
There are 3 main threads at the moment
Brexit hard Brexit as per the deal Don't Brexit at all
I would agree there are only 3 realistic options available as you outline above, however in terms of the debate in the UK there are a further 2 (totally unrealistic) options being spoken of. They are listed below in declining order of europobia
Brexit hard (I assume this means no deal) Renegotiate to get Canada + with no backstop (Zero chance of EU 27 agreeing) Brexit as per the deal Renegotiate to get a softer brexit, Labour's six tests or the SNP's Norway option (Slightly more, but not very much more, than zero chance of EU 27 agreeing, problem would be selling this in the UK as it means UK is rule taker, no control of borders, fishing etc and still paying into EU budget) Don't Brexit at all
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2018 11:58:42 GMT
The only possible reasoning for this TV debate is, I feel, as an early pitch for another General Election early next year. The face-off between May and Corbyn isn't to do with Brexit, because as has been said, the TV audience has no say anyway. It's about personality politics (hate that term), about who comes across more convincingly - and for that, I feel May will do better than Corbyn. Some might say it is the only contest she could currently 'win.' She must know her Brexit plans are dead in the water, so another election may be a next step, and by getting a Party Political Broadcast in early like this, she may feel she has gained an early advantage.
Probably entirely wrong though.
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Post by jasonward on Nov 28, 2018 12:10:00 GMT
Everything you say about it being about a general election makes sense, except one thing, May will not be leading The Conservatives into the next election. May has so few cards to play, she playing as many wild cards as she can, shit or bust, going all out regardless in the hope that it might by some miracle get the result she wants.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Nov 28, 2018 12:23:59 GMT
Everything you say about it being about a general election makes sense, except one thing, May will not be leading The Conservatives into the next election. May has so few cards to play, she playing as many wild cards as she can, shit or bust, going all out regardless in the hope that it might by some miracle get the result she wants. Unless the election happened so quickly after the Brexit deal is voted down that there is no time for a leadership election
Imagine if, straight after the result of the Commons vote is announced, May stands up and says a general election is needed. Labour, who have been calling for one, would have to vote for it and there would be enough Tory loyalists to get it through. Then, once we are into an election campaign, the Tories are stuck with May. May may calculate an election would expose Labours splits but given how radical a Labour manifesto is likely to be, it would be a huge risk to take.
Re the debates as a pre-cursor to an election, I'm not sure. if they are meant to be on brexit then the chair should keep the debaters on topic and not let them veer off into a party election broadcast on the economy, the NHS, etc.
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Post by jasonward on Nov 28, 2018 12:37:44 GMT
I think it May were to pull such a tactic, it would be disastrous, it would be seen by the wider public as a desperate attempt to save her job at the expense of everything, and within her party, I think it would cause a split for sure, there are some Conservative MP's who would not flight under her banner, and if an election was already called, Conservative Central Office would have no time to direct and organise for new selections to be made, there would be two Conservatives parties and they would be fighting each other harder than they would be fighting Labour etc. As I say, I think such a move by May would be disastrous both for May and The Conservative Party.
EDIT : Whilst I'm no supporter of May, I do have say, I think she's far too switched on to do such a thing. Even now I think she knows her time is up, but she holding the Brexit baby, and in that context, how can she give up? But loose the vote, facing a no confidence vote, I expect she'll go gracefully.
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Post by mark687 on Nov 29, 2018 12:10:17 GMT
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