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Post by number13 on Sept 26, 2019 11:04:54 GMT
Thanks. You're right about the heat and it'll only get turned up when the Commons resumes - but I imagine Brexiteers may be smelling 'burning martyr' right about now so I wonder if all this will affect views at all, either way. In the normal run of events it obviously should, but in these extraordinary, bizarre times who knows?
And did I just hear Corbyn call for a General Election? Like the one he voted down twice, very recently? We have to end up there before long, surely, this farce can't go on.
Except there's no way anyone could win it by taking a "neutral" position.
Regards
mark687
Hit the nail on the head I think. If there hasn't been a Deal voted through before then (yes I believe in magic ) the next election wil be a "Brexit election" in the way that 2017 wasn't.
"We're for Leave!" "We're for Revoke!" "We're for - we'll tell you after you've elected us. Promise. We will, really."
One of those positions is slightly more difficult to sell than the others and if it was my position I wouldn't want an election either!
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Post by whiskeybrewer on Sept 26, 2019 12:28:47 GMT
I just despair at the whole government
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Post by sherlock on Sept 26, 2019 13:13:12 GMT
Well that’ll make the Tory conference a bit awkward.
Who’d have thought Johnson’s masterful strategy of angering almost every opposition MP would make them less likely to allowing a recess...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 22:33:21 GMT
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Sept 30, 2019 9:30:32 GMT
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Post by whiskeybrewer on Sept 30, 2019 12:28:36 GMT
Gove saying that Johnson could be replaced as PM if Brexit doesnt go through.
Not the first time he said this, especially after stabbing him in the back first time round lol
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Post by sherlock on Oct 2, 2019 14:21:23 GMT
Johnson’s grand rabbit out of a hat moment has come:
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Post by mark687 on Oct 2, 2019 14:40:35 GMT
Johnson’s grand rabbit out of a hat moment has come: So the Letter reads a college assignment letter where the Student thinks they've done enough to get a Passing Grade.
Plus post transition (no mention how long that will be oddly ) NI would still be aligned with Both EU and Uk Regs!
Regards
mark687
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2019 14:55:39 GMT
Johnson’s grand rabbit out of a hat moment has come: Unfortunately the rabbit was already dead, which kinda ruined the act before it had even started...🤦♂️
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 2, 2019 15:11:13 GMT
Johnson’s grand rabbit out of a hat moment has come: So the Letter reads a college assignment letter where the Student thinks they've done enough to get a Passing Grade.
Plus post transition (no mention how long that will be oddly ) NI would still be aligned with Both EU and Uk Regs!
Regards
mark687
As I understand it, the NI Assembly has to opt in for 4 years and then keep re-opting in every 4 years. So in theory it could opt out at the next 4 yearly interval.
In theory this is all well and good. The idea that NI could be forced into the backstop against the wishes of its people with no legal or democratic way out is utterly undemocratic, so letting NI have a chance to democratically opt in/out every 4 years is hard to argue against in principle. Otherwise the democratic wishes of the people in NI are ignored and the Irish government calls the shots - red rag to a bull for unionists. In practice however, the procedural rules of the NI assembly (petition of concern mechanism) mean that 30 MLAs (1/3rd of the total) can veto anything, so the EU may well be concerned that the DUP is pulling a fast one. UK signs up to a backstop so the EU thinks it has got what it wants, then DUP MLAs veto it at the first opportunity and the backstop dies an ignoble death.
Possible compromise may be some kind of reform of the petition of concern mechanism to prevent this happening? Personally I suspect the DUP wouldn't ever use their veto because (a) knowing they have it and can leave the backstop at the next 4 yearly opportunity would provide a psychological comfort blanket to the DUP, thereby making it less likely in practice that they would actually use their veto and (b) the pressure from their supporters in the business and agricultural community to support the backstop has been fairly strong and they would not want to lose that support.
Doesn't solve the customs problem, though.
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Post by sherlock on Oct 2, 2019 15:25:14 GMT
So the Letter reads a college assignment letter where the Student thinks they've done enough to get a Passing Grade.
Plus post transition (no mention how long that will be oddly ) NI would still be aligned with Both EU and Uk Regs!
Regards
mark687
As I understand it, the NI Assembly has to opt in for 4 years and then keep re-opting in every 4 years. So in theory it could opt out at the next 4 yearly interval.
In theory this is all well and good. The idea that NI could be forced into the backstop against the wishes of its people with no legal or democratic way out is utterly undemocratic, so letting NI have a chance to democratically opt in/out every 4 years is hard to argue against in principle. Otherwise the democratic wishes of the people in NI are ignored and the Irish government calls the shots - red rag to a bull for unionists. In practice however, the procedural rules of the NI assembly (petition of concern mechanism) mean that 30 MLAs (1/3rd of the total) can veto anything, so the EU may well be concerned that the DUP is pulling a fast one. UK signs up to a backstop so the EU thinks it has got what it wants, then DUP MLAs veto it at the first opportunity and the backstop dies an ignoble death.
Possible compromise may be some kind of reform of the petition of concern mechanism to prevent this happening? Personally I suspect the DUP wouldn't ever use their veto because (a) knowing they have it and can leave the backstop at the next 4 yearly opportunity would provide a psychological comfort blanket to the DUP, thereby making it less likely in practice that they would actually use their veto and (b) the pressure from their supporters in the business and agricultural community to support the backstop has been fairly strong and they would not want to lose that support.
Doesn't solve the customs problem, though.
Plus there is one big problem with relying on the Northern Irish Assembly, it’s had no executive since 2017 due to collapse of power sharing arrangement.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 2, 2019 15:42:04 GMT
As I understand it, the NI Assembly has to opt in for 4 years and then keep re-opting in every 4 years. So in theory it could opt out at the next 4 yearly interval.
In theory this is all well and good. The idea that NI could be forced into the backstop against the wishes of its people with no legal or democratic way out is utterly undemocratic, so letting NI have a chance to democratically opt in/out every 4 years is hard to argue against in principle. Otherwise the democratic wishes of the people in NI are ignored and the Irish government calls the shots - red rag to a bull for unionists. In practice however, the procedural rules of the NI assembly (petition of concern mechanism) mean that 30 MLAs (1/3rd of the total) can veto anything, so the EU may well be concerned that the DUP is pulling a fast one. UK signs up to a backstop so the EU thinks it has got what it wants, then DUP MLAs veto it at the first opportunity and the backstop dies an ignoble death.
Possible compromise may be some kind of reform of the petition of concern mechanism to prevent this happening? Personally I suspect the DUP wouldn't ever use their veto because (a) knowing they have it and can leave the backstop at the next 4 yearly opportunity would provide a psychological comfort blanket to the DUP, thereby making it less likely in practice that they would actually use their veto and (b) the pressure from their supporters in the business and agricultural community to support the backstop has been fairly strong and they would not want to lose that support.
Doesn't solve the customs problem, though.
Plus there is one big problem with relying on the Northern Irish Assembly, it’s had no executive since 2017 due to collapse of power sharing arrangement. I don't think they actually need an executive for the purposes of opting in/out of the backstop. Just get all the members together in one room and let them vote on it, yea or nay.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Oct 2, 2019 18:33:57 GMT
DUP lost their veto numbers for petitions of concern, which is why the current system of no Stormont actually suits them.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 2, 2019 21:56:45 GMT
DUP lost their veto numbers for petitions of concern, which is why the current system of no Stormont actually suits them. They have 28, the independent unionist Jim Allister who is more hardline and thinks the DUP have sold out, would make 29 so they only need 1 more. And although the UUP is more moderate and was pro-Remain in the 2016 referendum they have consistently opposed the backstop, I think they would line up with the DUP - if the DUP decided to go down the route of veto.
But, as I said above, I don't think the DUP would actually go down this route, at least not right away.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 2, 2019 21:59:08 GMT
And then there is the other problem with BJ's plan - if NI can opt in to the single market, why can't Scotland or Wales?
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Post by sherlock on Oct 3, 2019 12:11:24 GMT
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Oct 3, 2019 18:14:10 GMT
And then there is the other problem with BJ's plan - if NI can opt in to the single market, why can't Scotland or Wales? Well...we know why, because Scotland and Wales simply aren't the same as NI. If there was an independent Scotland in the north of Great Britain, with a "Southern Scotland" attached to England, then maybe. And even then it would need to have that particular history behind it that led to a variant on the GFA for NI. I think we're going to get a hard border back and we'll just have to hope that the maniacs in NI are kept in check by their more reasonable brethren. ROFLMAO. Or I would if it wasn't such tragic nonsense.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 4, 2019 8:22:05 GMT
And then there is the other problem with BJ's plan - if NI can opt in to the single market, why can't Scotland or Wales? Well...we know why, because Scotland and Wales simply aren't the same as NI. If there was an independent Scotland in the north of Great Britain, with a "Southern Scotland" attached to England, then maybe. And even then it would need to have that particular history behind it that led to a variant on the GFA for NI. I think we're going to get a hard border back and we'll just have to hope that the maniacs in NI are kept in check by their more reasonable brethren. ROFLMAO. Or I would if it wasn't such tragic nonsense. I don't actually think there will be a hard border.
Short term I think it almost inevitable there will be an extension. Boris's current deal will not fly, so unless he completely caves and throws the DUP under the bus, we will be heading for no deal which, under ther terms of the Benn Act, means we are therefore heading for an extension (possibly the long way round via the Supreme Court).
Following the extension there will be an election*. If Labour wins, or some kind of Lib/Lab/SNP grouping wins, then it looks like a 2nd ref with the options of remain or a very soft brexit that avoids the hard border and negates the need for the backstop. If the Tories win outright and there is a no-deal majority in Parliament then I think (a) if the EU/Irish are ever going to compromise then that will be the moment or (b) BJ will no longer need the DUP and will throw them under the proverbial bus and go for the NI-only backstop. I think the only way we could ever get a hard border would be if there was a large no-deal majority in the Commons on the other side of an election - which can't be ruled out, but I think it unlikely. If we end up with a minority Tory government then we are back where we are today with a majority against no deal / hard border.
* There is a very remote possibility that a caretaker govt. could take office and stay there for as long as it takes to hold a 2nd referendum before an election. Highly unlikely, but I don't think anything can be ruled out. If this happened then the leave option would be Theresa May's deal with the original backstop so again no hard border.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 4, 2019 10:00:13 GMT
Useful primer / explanation of the idea of NI assembly agreeing to the backstop and how the petition of concern works and why it was introduced in the first place as part of the GFA.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/49925960
Petition of concern was introduced in the GFA for good reasons, but the law of unintended consequences has applied, and it has been abused by both unionists and nationalists. However, the good reasons why it was introduced in the first place remain relevant so it is not simply a case of just get rid of it and solve all the problems.
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Post by sherlock on Oct 4, 2019 11:39:28 GMT
It seems Johnson has decided to follow the law.
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