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Post by charlesuirdhein on Oct 4, 2019 13:10:23 GMT
Useful primer / explanation of the idea of NI assembly agreeing to the backstop and how the petition of concern works and why it was introduced in the first place as part of the GFA.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/49925960
Petition of concern was introduced in the GFA for good reasons, but the law of unintended consequences has applied, and it has been abused by both unionists and nationalists. However, the good reasons why it was introduced in the first place remain relevant so it is not simply a case of just get rid of it and solve all the problems.
To be honest, and I realise I have some bias here, there's no sane reason to oppose the NI backstop beyond jingoism. There really isn't. But there we go. I'd like to think you're right about a hard border, I really would, and if you are then I'll be happy to be wrong, but I'm Irish, and however many years I've lived in the UK -- and it IS a great place -- I don't trust the UK establishment to do anything other than patronisingly screw up anything to do with Ireland. The sheer fact that the GFA exists AT ALL is nothing short of miraculous, and shows the hard work of so so many, from both sides of the border and both sides of the UK political spectrum, who genuinely put a higher goal above their own interests rather than mouthing the words. I also believe that a large, though to my knowledge unsaid, part of the Brexit problem, is that it has been cast as something that can be somehow won, that someone will come out on top. And that attitude in such a situation is poisonous.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2019 17:15:00 GMT
So this morning No.10 brief the press that in a phone call between Johnson and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel allegedly stated the proposal offered was effectively dead in the water.
Yeah right. And pigs fly...😡
Tonight it's announced that Johnson in a phone call to the Irish Taoiseach is still keen to come up with a deal.
Call me a cynic, but the blame game for when we crash out with a no deal has begun. And its bloody obvious who a populist, nationalist, right wing, absolute ******* disgrace of a Government with an obsessive mindset and a habit of invoking the blitz spirit of WW2 to appeal to their aging base are looking to pin the blame on...🤬
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Post by sherlock on Oct 8, 2019 19:31:50 GMT
Meanwhile Parliament has been prorogued again in preparation for possibly one of the most pointless Queen’s Speeches in history (announcing the legislative agenda of a government without a majority which is pushing for an election).
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2019 9:05:59 GMT
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Post by tuigirl on Oct 14, 2019 9:43:30 GMT
I know it is not really my place to join the discussion... however, since the issue concerns us all one way of another...
At the convention this weekend, of course Brexit also was a topic. Raised by most of the actors. Some of them got quite upset and emotional about it and Peter Davison started a 5 minute rant.
Basically every British actor apologized on behalf of their nation.
For us fans, it was pretty much "do not mention the dreaded "B" word". Along the lines of "Don't mention the war" in Fawlty Towers.
Well, of course these people are upset, since it is also their livelihoods at stake.
We fans also discussed the impact of Brexit on little conventions like the TimeLash- no idea if Big Finish for example will be able to show up in force with so much product again next year.
The whole thing makes me really sad.
It is of such epic proportions that it even affects fun little events like the con, which should theoretically be an escape from the real world.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 14, 2019 13:51:16 GMT
Yet again the brexit saga twists and turns and gets more confusing.
Boris & Leo appear to have alighted on some sort of compromise on the NI border / backstop that MAY be acceptable to all parties, but it is a new concept and will take time to think through and get all the i's dotted and t's crossed before it can be incorporated into the withdrawal agreement in a way that satisfies the lawyers on both sides. Problem is there appears to be no time to do so and Boris is still adamant against an extension. So why bring it up at all if there isn't going to be time to do it and he won't make time by extending?
In other news the rebel alliance remains as split as ever, with Corbyn wanting an election he seems to think he will win but the rest of the Labour party thinks Boris will win. The SNP are desperate for an election before Alex Salmond's criminal trial for various bits of alleged sexual misconduct and/or the possibility of a cancelled brexit erode their newfound levels of support. Lib Dems and Change UK or whatever they're called this week seem terrified of an election. Having said that, there appeared to be some noises over the weekend that suggested more MPs were coming round to a 2nd referendum, but only if Boris has no deal to put on the table.
There seems to be a bunch of former remainers in parliament (Labour & Tory) who do not favour a 2nd referendum but are soft brexiteers. If their preferred soft brexit is not on offer then they will eventually have to plump for Boris's brexit or a 2nd referendum. If Boris's brexit is no-deal, then they will eventually opt for a 2nd referendum, and I think the ERG recognise that which is why they may now finally be prepared to compromise with the EU
It seems pretty clear that without a deal there is a fair chance brexit could be lost altogether and the ERG appear to be realising this, hence even Steve Baker seems to be coming round to the latest deal. The brexiteers cannot be confident of carrying no deal, so they need a deal to ensure brexit happens, whereas the remainers need no deal if they are to have any chance of carrying a 2nd referendum. It is often reported that the ERG will follow the DUP's lead on the backstop, but I have my doubts. I think that if forced to choose between brexit and the Union, the Little Englanders in the ERG will choose brexit and say cheerio to NI and Scotland. PREDICTION TIME - if this new deal has any legs at all, there will be a massive falling out between the DUP and the ERG and ironically the DUP and the remainers could end up being each others' new best friends in an effort to prevent a deal based on the latest compromise. You heard it here first.
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Post by whiskeybrewer on Oct 15, 2019 12:51:23 GMT
In the words of Ozzy Osbourne - Im sick and tired of being sick and tired.
Really enjoyed Morocco where i didnt have to hear about any of it
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Post by doctorkernow on Oct 15, 2019 17:32:09 GMT
Hello again.
What is really annoying is the useless Get Ready For Brexit adverts. Every advert break on Spotify. Grrrrr...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2019 19:48:31 GMT
What is really annoying is the useless Get Ready For Brexit adverts. Every advert break on Spotify. Grrrrr... All of the adverts on Spotify are annoying... I coughed up the €9.99pm as it's well worth it to get rid of the adverts. (It's probably a deliberate policy to make the adverts annoying... hoping to push people in to subscribing!)
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Post by doctorkernow on Oct 15, 2019 20:54:39 GMT
Hello again.
Too true Stevo! I don't mind the adverts most of the time even though they are repetitive. I just think those Brexit adverts are a bit of a waste of money.
I love the way you can create a playlist.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 17, 2019 8:09:55 GMT
Well it looks like a big hooray for the DUP keeping Remainers hopes alive.
Had they backed a deal, it would likely have gone through Parliament on Saturday and we would have left the EU - game over, 1 nil to the Brexiteers, followed by a likely Johnson election victory
Instead we are now into extra time - so it's still game on.
(Of course, this could all be out of date in the time between typing it and clicking Post)
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Post by sherlock on Oct 17, 2019 9:38:57 GMT
There might be a light at the end of this tunnel (emphasis on might). Maybe not an especially bright light, but a light nonetheless.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2019 9:52:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2019 10:15:10 GMT
Apparently no-one has told the DUP The DUP's starting position to anything is always No... although sometimes it's their finishing posistion too!
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 17, 2019 10:18:10 GMT
Apparently no-one has told the DUP The DUP's starting position to anything is always No... although sometimes it's their finishing posistion too! Time to dig out the old Ulster Says No posters form the 1980s
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2019 10:19:11 GMT
The numbers in the house calling for a second referendum on any deal mean that whatever Johnson stitches together here, there's a massive chance it'll have a confirmatory referendum attached to it. If so then even if Parliament approves it then they want to be able to definitively say people will be offered the chance to vote on exactly what they now know. None of this "leave means leave" vs "no-one voted for No Deal" back and forth that has stifled progress for years now.
None of which matters anyway if the DUP and ERG aren't behind it - we've been at this exact stage before when May got her "deal" which the EU backed and Parliament voted down. A few months after getting her feted deal, May was forced to resign. Getting the deal and getting it past Parliament and then potentially the country? That's a whole different hurdle.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2019 10:39:21 GMT
The DUP's starting position to anything is always No... although sometimes it's their finishing posistion too! Time to dig out the old Ulster Says No posters form the 1980s Old? I thought they were always kept 'in print' ?!
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 6,013
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Post by lidar2 on Oct 17, 2019 11:24:00 GMT
The numbers in the house calling for a second referendum on any deal mean that whatever Johnson stitches together here, there's a massive chance it'll have a confirmatory referendum attached to it. If so then even if Parliament approves it then they want to be able to definitively say people will be offered the chance to vote on exactly what they now know. None of this "leave means leave" vs "no-one voted for No Deal" back and forth that has stifled progress for years now. None of which matters anyway if the DUP and ERG aren't behind it - we've been at this exact stage before when May got her "deal" which the EU backed and Parliament voted down. A few months after getting her feted deal, May was forced to resign. Getting the deal and getting it past Parliament and then potentially the country? That's a whole different hurdle.
So as I see it the Remainers need 320 MPs to (a) oppose the deal (b) support a 2nd referendum (c) possibly also support Corbyn as a caretaker PM to hold a 2nd referendum
Whilst it looks hard for BJ to get his 320 MPs, it looks equally hard if not harder for the Remainers too.
Previously the wild card was the 21 whipless Tories, who would have needed to back the Rebel Alliance (on the assumption the DUP were in the government lobbies). Now that the DUP's 10 votes are in play, the Rebel Alliance could possibly do it without the 21 rebels. But it's all very unlikely as there are a few ex-Labour and Tory independents who support a soft brexit and might back the government. And of course, the SNP, despite what they say publicly, don't want an election delayed for a 2nd referendum because cancelling brexit would take the wind out of their sails and they want an election before the Alex Salmond trial in January 2020 can harm their prospects.
However ....
It looks like the final piece of BJ's jigsaw will be to ask the EU Council to rule out any extension, thereby giving MPs a choice of this deal or no deal and ruling out any delay for a 2nd referendum.
Will the council do it? And if so, would the Rebel Alliance - who don't want no deal - call the Council's bluff by rejecting the deal and hoping for an extension?
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Post by sherlock on Oct 17, 2019 12:12:01 GMT
DUP are confirmed against. This is a familiar situation...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2019 12:30:28 GMT
Hello - thick lad here again.
So, assuming the DUP provide the final hurdle to BJ's deal, will Boris take No Deal 'off the table' (as he is now in agreement with the EU as to how the UK will leave), giving the way clear for an election, which he will win, ditch the DUP and push through his deal? Or am I over-simplifying things?
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