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Post by jasonward on Aug 10, 2018 15:30:19 GMT
Usual poll caveats apply, but still. Just to balance that, a new YouGov poll puts the Conservatives at 39% and Labour at 35%. It seems even with the government in perceived disarray (regarding Brexit), the opposition still doesn't seem a credible alternative ... according to this poll.
Which was the point I was making when I said:
Depressing as it is, I think confidence could fall to single figures and it would make no difference.
I think it possible that The Conservatives could loose and Labour win an election in the near future, but if that happens, it won't be because anyone offered a powerful vision for Britain or even a clear vision with regard to the EU and baring failing to leave all together, which I think is possible but still not likely with either in power, the mess, the problems are coming either way.
The political parties as they stand today offer no credible alternative to each other when it comes the EU.
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Post by mark687 on Aug 10, 2018 15:59:07 GMT
Just to balance that, a new YouGov poll puts the Conservatives at 39% and Labour at 35%. It seems even with the government in perceived disarray (regarding Brexit), the opposition still doesn't seem a credible alternative ... according to this poll.
Which was the point I was making when I said:
Depressing as it is, I think confidence could fall to single figures and it would make no difference.
I think it possible that The Conservatives could loose and Labour win an election in the near future, but if that happens, it won't be because anyone offered a powerful vision for Britain or even a clear vision with regard to the EU and baring failing to leave all together, which I think is possible but still not likely with either in power, the mess, the problems are coming either way.
The political parties as they stand today offer no credible alternative to each other when it comes the EU.
The trouble is Labour have made a rod for their back of their stance (or lack of) on religious tolerance, and that seems be the last keystone of Left politics, so Conservatives will stay in power till that's addressed to everyone's satisfaction or Corbyon's forced out.
As for Brexit in general someone's got to blink or a large part of Western Economy will slowly grind to a halt.
Regards
mark687
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Post by jasonward on Aug 11, 2018 0:29:55 GMT
Which was the point I was making when I said:
I think it possible that The Conservatives could loose and Labour win an election in the near future, but if that happens, it won't be because anyone offered a powerful vision for Britain or even a clear vision with regard to the EU and baring failing to leave all together, which I think is possible but still not likely with either in power, the mess, the problems are coming either way.
The political parties as they stand today offer no credible alternative to each other when it comes the EU.
The trouble is Labour have made a rod for their back of their stance (or lack of) on religious tolerance, and that seems be the last keystone of Left politics, so Conservatives will stay in power till that's addressed to everyone's satisfaction or Corbyon's forced out.
As for Brexit in general someone's got to blink or a large part of Western Economy will slowly grind to a halt.
Regards
mark687
On the note about religious tolerance, I don't really think that's a cornerstone of the "left", more a cornerstone of the "liberals" - which for much of the last 80 years or more has in the UK been largely associated with the left, but conservative liberals exist and the left has its fair share of intolerance. |
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Aug 11, 2018 11:29:27 GMT
The trouble is Labour have made a rod for their back of their stance (or lack of) on religious tolerance, and that seems be the last keystone of Left politics, so Conservatives will stay in power till that's addressed to everyone's satisfaction or Corbyon's forced out.
As for Brexit in general someone's got to blink or a large part of Western Economy will slowly grind to a halt.
Regards
mark687
On the note about religious tolerance, I don't really think that's a cornerstone of the "left", more a cornerstone of the "liberals" - which for much of the last 80 years or more has in the UK been largely associated with the left, but conservative liberals exist and the left has its fair share of intolerance. The atheistic left is particularly intolerant of religion in the public sphere |
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Aug 17, 2018 8:57:13 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2018 19:10:54 GMT
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Post by jasonward on Aug 17, 2018 19:47:29 GMT
So the callers (a former UKIP candidate) position is we should leave the EU even if it is economically disastrous for us to do so, because we need to protect the white British from the brown people because the brown people refuse to assimilate into British life, unlike the caller who is a proud Asian who has assimilated.
That's... just... wow.
So let me get this right, I (a white Britisher) need protection against the brown people by leaving the EU even if that bankrupts me, so says a proud to be white brown person.
Right...
Er..... No.
Just no.
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Post by mark687 on Aug 17, 2018 19:54:35 GMT
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Post by number13 on Aug 19, 2018 21:44:59 GMT
Usual poll caveats apply, but still. Depressing as it is, I think confidence could fall to single figures and it would make no difference. Very true. But the 22% figure is hardly surprising.
Let's assume that the 52/48 split still stands (maybe it doesn't, but let's assume it does for a moment.)
If the 48% all think the PM won't get 'the right deal' because no 'right deal' can be had because leaving is always a 'bad deal' and half of the 52% were "Hard Brexit" supporters (I'll leave the definition of what 'hard' means to the reader) who don't like the sound of the 'softer' Brexit which (I think?!!) is now policy,
then inevitably 48+26=74% won't have confidence that she can get 'the right deal'.
There are so many assumptions in that figure but look at it another way. Conservative support is in the high 30s% at present - say 38%. Assume that very few Labour voters will ever have confidence in a Tory PM for tribal reasons, that Lib Dem & Green voters have no confidence in anyone trying to take us out and that UKIP voters think Brexit is being betrayed, 38% would be the maximum 'confidence' figure available. (And apart from a spike around the time of Article 50, the 'confidence' figure has roughly equalled the Tory vote figure.)
And given there's now an uneven three-way split within Conservatives between hard/soft/remain - again 22% seems perfectly reasonable now we have a proposal to agree with / object to rather than just 'Brexit means Brexit'.
I doubt that any other potential PM would score much higher or lower for the same reasons, applied differently.
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Sept 21, 2018 8:45:48 GMT
Things seem to be hotting up!
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Post by jasonward on Sept 21, 2018 9:58:35 GMT
Things seem to be hotting up! I agree, but... but what is hotting up? No Deal? Chequers? Some bastardised deal with yet to hear of?
Will May be able to carry the vote in parliament? Will there be a 2nd referendum?
Who will be prime minister in 6 months time?
Will we be in or out of the EU come the deadline?
Does anyone know?
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Post by mark687 on Sept 21, 2018 10:17:53 GMT
Things seem to be hotting up! I agree, but... but what is hotting up? No Deal? Chequers? Some bastardised deal with yet to hear of?
Will May be able to carry the vote in parliament? Will there be a 2nd referendum?
Who will be prime minister in 6 months time?
Will we be in or out of the EU come the deadline?
Does anyone know?
EU won't shift on Ireland, their idea is the whole of Ireland stay in EU, and that means the Chequers Deal almost dead, which leaves us with a straight No Deal, or weird compromise, unless the Gov cave on the Broader.
However, there's also talk of a Conservative Leadership challenge, AFTER the Final Vote or even a General Election, because apparently according to Michael Gove "of course a new Leader or Government can change the terms of the Deal"!
Regards
mark687
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lidar2
Castellan
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
Likes: 5,689
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Post by lidar2 on Sept 21, 2018 10:24:29 GMT
IMHO what people voted for in 2016 is impossible and undeliverable and the Brexit train was always going to hit the buffers sooner or later. Macron is absolutely 100% right in what he says about the Brexiteers - they were liars. Or, if I was trying to be as charitable as possible about them, delusional fantasists who managed to fool 52% of those who voted in 2016.
As to what happens next, it is hard to see a way out for May as she has boxed herself into a corner.
The Canada and Norway models both seem to be out for varying reasons, hence no deal looks like the only outcome.
However, and in this I am an optimist, no deal is more likely to mean a second referendum than Britain crashing out.
So my only comfort in all this is that it looks as if the possibility of a 2nd referendum is growing, but it is by no mans a certainty.
Given that (1) May was a Remainer to start with and she still refuses to say Brexit will be better than remaining and (2) in all likelihood she will be gone in 6 months whatever happens, maybe she is better to go for broke - stick to her red lines, have a no deal outcome leading to a second referendum which reverses the previous referendum. She'd be finished as PM but at least she'd go down in history as the PM who saved us from disaster. Then she could claim in her memoirs that was her cunning plan all along.
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Stevo
Chancellery Guard
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Post by Stevo on Sept 21, 2018 11:10:07 GMT
Post #4 in this thread is my opinion on Brexit...
I am surprised that Theresa May is still the UK Prime Minister this far down the road though. But maybe not for long?
A second UK referendum wouldn't surprise me either.
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Post by sherlock on Sept 21, 2018 13:41:35 GMT
Well May has now admitted negotiations are at an impasse.
At this rate it’s gonna end up no deal with some half-baked preparations.
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Post by tuigirl on Sept 21, 2018 14:03:15 GMT
Well, I felt sorry for you guys from the beginning, but the longer this goes on, the more I feel sorry.
What a load of male cattle droppings completely driven against the wall by some petty squabbling and incompetence.
This is going to hurt both sides and of course it will hurt those worst who cannot afford it.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Sept 21, 2018 16:00:56 GMT
Oh dear god. And then I look across at the nonsense that passes for US political discourse at the moment and I think "could be worse".
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Post by TinDogPodcast on Sept 21, 2018 18:04:55 GMT
A second UK referendum wouldn't surprise me either. I can but dream |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2018 18:18:13 GMT
What a sh*tshow. The Chequers deal was never going to work and she knew it. This is beyond ideological debates of hypothetical scenarios now, May has to come up with a deal quickly or it’s going to hit us all where it hurts. I couldn’t vote at the time of the referendum, and quite frankly I shouldn’t have to deal with the fallout. How am I supposed to get a job in five years when there will be barely any to go around?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2018 20:04:22 GMT
Looking at the poll, there seems two outcomes. Negotiations can fail, whilst we we will still exit.
It is not the Exiting of the EU organisation that is the problem, but rather the lack of forward planning on the part of the Gov't, who prevented Whitehall from doing so to prevent a case in favour leaking. On the EU side, there is the need to prevent a domino effect as we are not alone in having a divided electorate.
I always recognised the benefits of membership but chose late in the day to vote out as I felt that the EU itself was in need of serious reform, having overreached its core intentions. Having an unelected executive body with power over elected representatives and the power of veto of parliamentary laws seemed a step too far.
Immigration is good, and no economist in their right mind would argue against the import of skilled workers, so I can safely say I was not influenced by the campaign manifesto to leave. I will also admit that i did not foresee the complexities such as Northern Ireland and so many other problems. I am no Nationalist and was for years dismissive of the idea, through my dislike of UKIP.
I would happily remain within a reformed EU, but feel that change is coming and we may not be the last, given the problems in Greece and Italy, who went with the Single Currency and have suffered as a consequence.
The big issue to me seems to be the low calibre of those running the show, on both sides. Scale back the Gravy Train, get business leaders on board as opposed to unelected officials and Politicians lacking a strong mandate. Things are becoming a bit Kamikaze, getting into the lifeboats because the Ship is listing in a storm, whatever.
I hope it does work out, but then again the worst effects could well be felt long after I have 'moved on', as declines of nations are slow. Likewise benefits could be a long time coming and never experienced by those who voted one way or the other.
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