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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 17:51:10 GMT
& we are currently living under a regime that is far from the centre ground. A right wing tory party. Yes I agree but with respect the run them out with pitchforks and how can anyone support anything they do discourse can be as extreme, to keep moving forward there has to be some common consciences reached (not perfection but manageable for the majority.) Regards mark687 There will be a common consensus - a massive Labour win. That's it. This is, again, why the left and the liberals never KEEP power. They're too busy worrying about how to not alienate people on the fringe who would never come over anyway. Scared to call even Kemi Badenoch out for what she truly is. No. The right keep power because they fight. They may get found out eventually but they get decades to do damage. Time for the left and centre to grow a pair and REALLY "take our country back". Not from the immigrants - from the scum. The press, the politicians and, yes, some of the voters who are full of HATE. They have to be stopped. Not placated. Sixty years ago nearly The Doctor said ""There are some corners of the universe which have bred the most terrible things. Things which act against everything we believe in. They must be fought...". Not "We have to remember there may be some decent Cybermen too"
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 17:55:28 GMT
Biden is toast going on this. When your own team have to brief the press to say "he's just got a cold, it's not age" during the debate? Ouch. What Trump would do in a second term makes an ineffectual Tory party seem like the table at Camelot.. This isn't the 20th century anymore. A low energy performance in a single early debate isn't going to effect much one way or the other. This isn't about a "debate", that's the problem. You think Trump cares about that? It's theatre, entertainment - and he came out as the ringmaster, while Biden looked AWFUL. He's aged 10 years in 4 - and he was too old 4 years ago. Trump just needs indifference to infect the Democrats and it 100% is. It's Trumps election to lose tight now. Right now even the bookies have Trump odds on favourite. Biden is 7/2 which is a terrible set of odds in a two horse race.
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Post by bethhigdon on Jun 28, 2024 18:10:21 GMT
This isn't the 20th century anymore. A low energy performance in a single early debate isn't going to effect much one way or the other. This isn't about a "debate", that's the problem. You think Trump cares about that? It's theatre, entertainment - and he came out as the ringmaster, while Biden looked AWFUL. He's aged 10 years in 4 - and he was too old 4 years ago. Trump just needs indifference to infect the Democrats and it 100% is. It's Trumps election to lose tight now. Right now even the bookies have Trump odds on favourite. Biden is 7/2 which is a terrible set of odds in a two horse race. 1. Most people aren't watching the debates. Sure it's an entertainment game but CNN (and other news outlets in general) ain't the playing field anymore.
2. Biden's performance is all the talk now but it won't be as soon as Trump does something stupid again, which I give a grand total of three days. If even that.
3. The US public have the memory of goldfish. No one is going to remember or care about this debate come Nov
4. There are very, very few undecideds in this election. Most everyone already knows who they are going to vote for and why. The winner is going to be determined by negative bias turnout. If most people against Biden can only shrug in indifference at him while people who hate Trump are foaming at the mouth in rage and fear of him, then he's the one who has to fight an uphill battle.
5. It's the Dems support of Israel depressing the younger vote that is far more the danger here, not Biden's age or energy. So doom saying doesn't help and is very unrealistic.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 18:15:34 GMT
We'll see - but I'd be as confident in Trump winning as I am in Labour next week. And such are the odds on that, I'd make just about my money back putting that on as a double accumulator at the bookies. So the market thinks so too.
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Post by Ela on Jun 28, 2024 18:21:35 GMT
This isn't about a "debate", that's the problem. You think Trump cares about that? It's theatre, entertainment - and he came out as the ringmaster, while Biden looked AWFUL. He's aged 10 years in 4 - and he was too old 4 years ago. Trump just needs indifference to infect the Democrats and it 100% is. It's Trumps election to lose tight now. Right now even the bookies have Trump odds on favourite. Biden is 7/2 which is a terrible set of odds in a two horse race. 1. Most people aren't watching the debates. Sure it's an entertainment game but CNN (and other news outlets in general) ain't the playing field anymore.
2. Biden's performance is all the talk now but it won't be as soon as Trump does something stupid again, which I give a grand total of three days. If even that.
3. The US public have the memory of goldfish. No one is going to remember or care about this debate come Nov
4. There are very, very few undecideds in this election. Most everyone already knows who they are going to vote for and why. The winner is going to be determined by negative bias turnout. If most people against Biden can only shrug in indifference at him while people who hate Trump are foaming at the mouth in rage and fear of him, then he's the one who has to fight an uphill battle.
5. It's the Dems support of Israel depressing the younger vote that is far more the danger here, not Biden's age or energy. So doom saying doesn't help and is very unrealistic.
You forgot number 6: Trump is also old. It's not as if there's a big age difference between them. And Trump says stupid and incoherent things on a daily basis (as you pointed out).
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Post by bethhigdon on Jun 28, 2024 18:36:40 GMT
We'll see - but I'd be as confident in Trump winning as I am in Labour next week. And such are the odds on that, I'd make just about my money back putting that on as a double accumulator at the bookies. So the market thinks so too. That's pretty bold when,
1. Polls have been wildly off for several elections and are considered by most political experts to be unreliable this far out and especially so this year as they've miss-predicted several primaries at even local levels.
2. Trump already lost to Biden once, Biden has incumbent privilege, the economy is steady and getting better, and Trump was just declared guilty of over 30 felonies and has more legal battles to fight before Nov
3. Demographics have changed a lot since 2016 and will only continue to do so as older conservatives die out and younger progressives begin to vote more and more.
4. Trump candidates have been losing local elections since 2020 and Trump himself has struggled to gain the nom. Meaning he's losing support within his own party and has lost the independents he needs to win a general. (Also, down ballot races aren't getting the money they need cause Trump is stealing funds)
5. Reproductive rights is on the ballot
I'm not saying that Trump can't win, but the election is honestly not anywhere near as clear cut as it is over in the UK right now.
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Post by timleschild on Jun 29, 2024 14:23:54 GMT
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Post by sherlock on Jul 1, 2024 17:57:45 GMT
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Post by timleschild on Jul 1, 2024 20:04:47 GMT
I absolutely HATE this person.
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lidar2
Castellan
![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png)
You know, now that you mention it, I actually do rather like Attack of the Cybermen ...
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Post by lidar2 on Jul 2, 2024 11:15:26 GMT
Have amended my vote above to Labour majority 151+
I think Starmer's victory in 2024 will be like Johnson's in 2019 has proven to be - a mile wide but an inch deep. And when I look at elections in other countries I do worry about the election after this one if Starmer doesn't deliver
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Post by timleschild on Jul 2, 2024 11:43:39 GMT
Have amended my vote above to Labour majority 151+ I think Starmer's victory in 2024 will be like Johnson's in 2019 has proven to be - a mile wide but an inch deep. And when I look at elections in other countries I do worry about the election after this one if Starmer doesn't deliver Faciscm on the rise
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Post by timleschild on Jul 4, 2024 7:54:21 GMT
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Post by timleschild on Jul 4, 2024 17:13:13 GMT
Voting done.
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Post by timleschild on Jul 4, 2024 21:02:48 GMT
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Post by bethhigdon on Jul 4, 2024 21:07:33 GMT
The only thing I'm disappointed about is that the Lib Dems didn't out proform the Tories. But this is good news and hopefully things can now start to get better over there.
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Post by timleschild on Jul 4, 2024 21:16:44 GMT
The only thing I'm disappointed about is that the Lib Dems didn't out proform the Tories. But this is good news and hopefully things can now start to get better over there. Its a huge result for Lib Dems, more than five times the number of seats that they secured at the last election.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:57:27 GMT
The Empire is becoming the First Order as we watch - Steve Baker, Jacob Mogg and Andrea Leadsom all, back to back, saying as Tories they need to rebuild and move to the right.
THIS is where Reform win. Farage gets to tell the Tories "You don't win with me against you" - and he's got the open ticket. Whether it's as Kingmaker for a Tory leader OR leading defections to the Tories and becoming leader himself....what a terrifying prospect.
Edit: Grant Shapps has just said the same.
Battle won. War begins anew.
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Post by timleschild on Jul 5, 2024 8:30:06 GMT
Yes! What a result! The people have spoken. An undeniable message. Tories we do not want your brand of politics.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 8:53:07 GMT
Yes! What a result! The people have spoken. An undeniable message. Tories we do not want your brand of politics. John Curtice saying without Reform, 2/3rds of the losses would still be Tory seats. That's a bigger worry than short term wins. Now Farage and co can prove, not just speculate, they're the Kingmakers, the far right have a much, much louder voice today. Labour winning with such a low vote share - lower than Corbyn in 2017 - has to be considered a house of sand. It's up to Starmer to turn it into cement as Farage, Braverman, Patel, Badennoch, Tice, Anderson and more are now the voice of EVERYTHING right of the Lib-Dems and that is terrifying in a two party system.
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Post by number13 on Jul 5, 2024 9:31:44 GMT
Yes! What a result! The people have spoken. An undeniable message. Tories we do not want your brand of politics. Quite correct. The undeniable message was that very many of them don't want anything so moderate as that.
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