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Post by number13 on Jul 5, 2024 9:31:58 GMT
Far be it from me to come on here blowing my own trumpet... ... when I need something much, much bigger!
*takes deep breath and {Spoiler} sounds the horn of the Tower of Rassilon* ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif)
OK, joking put to one side...
Huge Labour landslide on what is frankly a pathetic election-winning vote share of 34%.
Not quite as extreme a result as I predicted in one way, but moreso in another. The Conservatives lost fewer seats than I expected (I'd thought sub-100), a few more of those losses went to the Lib Dems than I expected, and Labour won even less of the vote share than I had expected. (About 38-39% was my 'forecast'.)
And how did it happen? You don't need an amateur like me to expound when the expert has already told us: "With just six seats left to declare, in 171 of the Conservative seats they lost tonight, the Reform vote was greater than the margin of the Conservatives' defeat."
This isn't 1997; it's much worse than that. Then the economy was running strongly and it was obvious (at least to liberal Conservative voters like me) how to come back: choose a centrist leader to appeal to voters "lost" to New Labour and the Lib Dems and wait for the government (inevitably) to screw up and lose popularity over time. Eventually, that's what happened.
This time, it's equally obvious how to win back those "lost" votes - but I don't like it at all. And at 34%, Labour are starting with no popularity to speak of, and no money left.
So I honestly hope they don't 'screw up' because I've looked into my crystal ball for 2028/9 and then I threw it away because the view was so horrible.
And on that cheery note, I'm off to see if our summer has actually fled the country or is just in hiding.
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Post by ollychops on Jul 5, 2024 10:03:08 GMT
I want to be happy that Labour won but I don’t have much faith in Labour under Starmer.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 10:06:19 GMT
I want to be happy that Labour won but I don’t have much faith in Labour under Starmer. This is why I'm not popping the champagne. Because the right DO have faith in Farage and Braverman. A merger of parties, or a deal? They can easily win 2029. Starmer now needs to be a LEADER. And forget Tories. It's Tory & Reform together he needs to fight as Farage hasn't come in to prop up Labour. It's a one term spoiler to show the Tories he can cost them power, and seize power for himself.
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Post by theillusiveman on Jul 5, 2024 10:09:17 GMT
I want to be happy that Labour won but I don’t have much faith in Labour under Starmer. This is why I'm not popping the champagne. Because the right DO have faith in Farage and Braverman. A merger of parties, or a deal? They can easily win 2029. Starmer now needs to be a LEADER. And forget Tories. It's Tory & Reform together he needs to fight as Farage hasn't come in to prop up Labour. It's a one term spoiler to show the Tories he can cost them power, and seize power for himself. Why worry about 2029 when labour has won now?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 10:20:54 GMT
This is why I'm not popping the champagne. Because the right DO have faith in Farage and Braverman. A merger of parties, or a deal? They can easily win 2029. Starmer now needs to be a LEADER. And forget Tories. It's Tory & Reform together he needs to fight as Farage hasn't come in to prop up Labour. It's a one term spoiler to show the Tories he can cost them power, and seize power for himself. Why worry about 2029 when labour has won now? What a silly question. Because Farage, Braverman and co? They started planning for 2029 AGES ago. The last time Labour went in complacent and didn't fight from day one, 2010, led to 14 years of Tory power. And because Starmer has a minute vote share which he will need to improve, you can do that when things are going well, like today. Not when they're going badly. When Starmer said "The hard works starts now" in his speech overnight there's a reason he didn't say "We'll take some time and enjoy the win."
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Post by mark687 on Jul 5, 2024 10:22:17 GMT
The Lib Dems getting 2nd largest Opposition and earning 2 PM Questions every week was a turn up
Regards
mark687
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Post by timleschild on Jul 5, 2024 10:30:59 GMT
I don't think Reform are a credible threat. I hope not. The tories losses were not matched by Reform gains. The tories move to the right has been rejected by the electorate.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 10:47:21 GMT
I don't think Reform are a credible threat. I hope not. The tories losses were not matched by Reform gains. The tories move to the right has been rejected by the electorate. This kind of complacency will be music to Farage's ears, and Braverman's. Yes - seat for seat that's true. But look at vote share. If Reform and Conservative were - and this seems to be where all involved are thinking - becoming one movement be that as one party or not? Then Labour - especially on an extremely low vote share - will not share your confidence. Neither does John Curtice who said we'd be talking a hung parliament if there was no Reform. Sunak was NOT a move to the right, that's nonsense. That move really starts now. Braverman, Patel and how they embrace Farage and the millions of Reform voters. You'll really see a right wing now.
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Post by charlesuirdhein on Jul 5, 2024 10:50:27 GMT
I don't think Reform are a credible threat. I hope not. The tories losses were not matched by Reform gains. The tories move to the right has been rejected by the electorate. If Farage plays true to form (see his MEP record) then Reform are not a serious threat, because he will take his MP wage and do SFA except complain to the press about how bad things are. We will see of course.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 10:58:22 GMT
I don't think Reform are a credible threat. I hope not. The tories losses were not matched by Reform gains. The tories move to the right has been rejected by the electorate. If Farage plays true to form (see his MEP record) then Reform are not a serious threat, because he will take his MP wage and do SFA except complain to the press about how bad things are. We will see of course. Nobody ever paid attention to their MEP. Most people couldn't name them. Farage will be louder than ever now. But I'd remind you his press relations - including being the most frequent guest on Question Time EVER - have led him to Brexit and a massive vote share for a new party, which has crippled the Government. He's not got that far because of his work in office but his work in public. Same as his friend Trump.
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Post by number13 on Jul 5, 2024 11:31:51 GMT
You VOTED for the Tories again and again, now you have the gall to say "no money left, good luck"? Who's fault is that? Oh, yes. "Liberal Conservatives" (not a thing any more, hasn't been for at least 10 years) like you who enabled the party of Johnson, of Truss, of Patel, of Braverman and back to Cameron. You propped them all up with your "I'm a Tory but one of the nice ones..." BS. Then have the gall to say "Labour won't sort out this mess". The mess you voted for and supported. The opposition now are the fringe-right. And it's thanks to the likes of you, 13. The ones who have made Farage the Kingmaker for 2029. No need for you to enjoy an English summer, you should be red-faced enough with embarassment. And, if you're going to leave...leave. Didn't your party tell us that enough with Brexit? Wheras you post your "Maybe the Whoniverse doesn't want me, I'm leaving" BS then come back to make one of your patronising posts only to post "leaving again". Oh dear. The 'Whoniverse' I referred to isn't DU, but the wider one.
As far as the forum goes, I think it's a great place, I love chatting about the wonderful work of BF and I'm not leaving no matter how rude some people are, just taking a summer break (as I did more than once before, as longtime posters will know) as I said a couple of weeks ago. I only popped in to point out (with some intended humour) that I did predict this result weeks ago on this thread, not because it was the one I wanted, but because it was the one I reasoned. Own trumpet blown!
There are still liberal Conservatives and yes, I am one. Don't presume to know everyone. There is no money left because there hasn't been any national money left over (to speak of) for years and years. The more recent growth we had made as a nation was spent (plus vast borrowing) on the massive bills for furlough during covid and energy subsidies after Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Both of them correct decisions imo because without them hardship would have been considerably worse, but very, very costly.
I did not say "Labour won't sort out this mess". In fact I said I hoped the opposite. Growth is the only way out and that needs (imo) continued high levels of (legal) migration, not raising taxes even more, controlling public spending and major planning reform so the nation of the industrial revolution can actually start building stuff again. Lots and lots of stuff. We need more, frankly, of everything, except regulations and NIMBYs. Labour have made promising noises about planning reform, but now most of the local MPs who will have upset NIMBY voters are their MPs, and somehow I don't think they will reduce regulations.
Now I really am off for my summer break from DU. And in a better mood, it would seem, than some of the 'winners'.
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Post by number13 on Jul 5, 2024 11:37:47 GMT
The Lib Dems getting 2nd largest Opposition and earning 2 PM Questions every week was a turn up Regards mark687 No, all as expected! (By me anyway. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif) Though they did about 20 seats better than I thought.)
A welcome return to 'business as usual' in that respect and for me as a unionist with some Scottish roots, last night proves every cloud has a silver lining!
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Post by bethhigdon on Jul 5, 2024 15:05:24 GMT
Yes! What a result! The people have spoken. An undeniable message. Tories we do not want your brand of politics. Quite correct. The undeniable message was that very many of them don't want anything so moderate as that. In what world is the Tories moderate?
Even the most head in the sand conservative can't claim that the Tories anywhere near moderate.
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Post by bethhigdon on Jul 5, 2024 15:13:00 GMT
There are still Liberal Conservatives
Except that's a fantasy. There may be people who believe in the fantasy, sure, but that doesn't change the fact that most 'conservative' policies are really regressive and actively harm liberal social progress. You can't be both as both are opposites that oppose each other leaving you with nothing.
Also you have no damn clue how economics work if you think you can rebuild anything without raising taxes on the rich.
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Post by bethhigdon on Jul 5, 2024 15:16:46 GMT
The Lib Dems getting 2nd largest Opposition and earning 2 PM Questions every week was a turn up Regards mark687 No, all as expected! (By me anyway. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif) Though they did about 20 seats better than I thought.)
A welcome return to 'business as usual' in that respect and for me as a unionist with some Scottish roots, last night proves every cloud has a silver lining! I think the UK needs to come to realize that Labour and the Lib Dems are switching spots on the political spectrum. Labour is the new center right and the Lib Dems are the new left.
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Post by timleschild on Jul 5, 2024 15:37:12 GMT
The Lib Dems getting 2nd largest Opposition and earning 2 PM Questions every week was a turn up Regards mark687 No, all as expected! (By me anyway. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/6343532/images/mW7FMmAyG_vqxkNOJyyh.gif) Though they did about 20 seats better than I thought.) So not as you expected then.
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Post by timleschild on Jul 5, 2024 15:38:50 GMT
There are still Liberal Conservatives
Except that's a fantasy. There may be people who believe in the fantasy, sure, but that doesn't change the fact that most 'conservative' policies are really regressive and actively harm liberal social progress. You can't be both as both are opposites that oppose each other leaving you with nothing.
Also you have no damn clue how economics work if you think you can rebuild anything without raising taxes on the rich.
Exactly. Maybe it helps some people sleep better at night if they call themselves Liberal Conservatives?
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Post by mark687 on Jul 5, 2024 15:44:29 GMT
Hold the position on here now is
1. If someone Votes for a Party they Support EVERY Policy of that Party?
2. Not every Policy from any Party is Perfect anyway?
3 So accepting the 1st 2 How were People Expected to Vote?
4. Because apparently people can Judge that others have Voted wrong or Wrong whatever they Voted for?
If an Everything or Nothing position is being expressed here I do fear come 2029 we're heading for Totalitarianism with a spin.
Regards
mark687
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Post by bethhigdon on Jul 5, 2024 16:09:19 GMT
Hold the position on here now is 1. If someone Votes for a Party they Support EVERY Policy of that Party? 2. Not every Policy from any Party is Perfect anyway? 3 So accepting the 1st 2 How were People Expected to Vote? 4. Because apparently people can Judge that others have Voted wrong or Wrong whatever they Voted for? Regards mark687 There's a difference between a big tent party having some policies you disagree with mixed with some you do care about, vs a political party lurching to the far right and advocating diminishing the basic human rights of others at every turn while offering nothing productive and only fear of the 'other side'.
Also, its just a well known fact by now that Neo-liberal economics not only do not work but actively lead to the reduction of personal freedoms. So yes, anyone who still believes otherwise is just holding onto a fantasy for the sake of their own pride and does not care about the well being of others.
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Post by mark687 on Jul 5, 2024 16:21:01 GMT
Hold the position on here now is 1. If someone Votes for a Party they Support EVERY Policy of that Party? 2. Not every Policy from any Party is Perfect anyway? 3 So accepting the 1st 2 How were People Expected to Vote? 4. Because apparently people can Judge that others have Voted wrong or Wrong whatever they Voted for? Regards mark687 There's a difference between a big ten party having some policies you disagree with mixed with some you do care about, vs a political party lurching to the far right and advocating diminishing the basic human rights of others at every turn while offering nothing productive and only fear of the 'other side'.
Also, its just a well known fact by now that Neo-liberal economics not only do not work but actively lead to the reduction of personal freedoms. So yes, anyone who still believes otherwise is just holding onto a fantasy for the sake of their own pride and does not care about the well being of others.
So 100% Liberal is the ideal then? Regards mark687
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